Data deadline: 27 may 2026 11. 30
I. Futures (sr2609): swaps up, breaking $5,400 / tons
As of may 27, 2026, 11. 30 a. M. Disclose collection, zheng sugar main power sr 2609, accurate data on the status of the contract are as follows:
Latest price: $5,393 / ton, up from yesterday's closing price ($5,389 / ton) $23 / ton, up 0. 43 per cent
Daytime fluctuations: opening $5387 / ton, maximum $5408 / ton, minimum $5375 / ton
Deal: 2598 million hands, almost the same as the same period yesterday
Warehousing: 68. 42 million hands, an increase of about 1700 hands over yesterday's night pallet, showing a build-up pattern gear
Settlement price reference: $5390/ton
Side features:
Yesterday, sr2609 contract strongly rebounded and set a steady closing line of $5380/ton. Nightdisk continues to concussion overwhelm, reaching a maximum of $5399 per ton. After the early start of the drive today, many funds continued to work, with a one-time run-through of $5,400/tonne integer at a maximum of $5408/t, followed by shocks at 5390-5400/tonne. The strength of 5370 yuan / ton as a daily support position has been strong and has failed to break down effectively on a number of occasions, indicating that multiple forces have taken the initiative。
Ii. Field market: difficult regional difficultation and the chung places of yunnan
Today, according to the latest spot price, the national sugar spot market is characterized by "regional fragmentation, overall stability":
1. Summary of quotations from main production areas
Table
Regional, mainstream quotation range ($/t)
Yunnan's estate, 5,000-5180
Yunnan kunmingkuti 5140-5250 flat, traders' offers concentrated on 5160-5180 yuan/tonne, high-priced supply
Guangxi origin 5340-5400 +5-10 partial group raised $10 per ton last afternoon and the offer is stable today
Sichuan chengdu, 5290-5390 flat, yunnan sugar and guangxi sugar price difference of approximately $30-40 / ton
2. Analysis of priority markets
Yunnan market: the lowest offer for the site bank has reached $5,000 per ton (chin state port current list), while the main level sugar offer is concentrated at $5050-5150 per ton. Some of the large sugar mills used spot-priced sales of sr 2609-340 and sr 2609-360 respectively, corresponding to spot prices of $5053-5073/ton, with significant price advantages, which attracted some of the surrounding sales areas。
Guangxi market: nanning mainstream offer: $5360/ton, guangxi factory offer: $5340-5390/ton, and your port highest offer: $5,400/ton. Some of the brands of mainstream electric power company platforms are sold at spot prices of sr 2609-5 and sr 2609-10, respectively, $538-5393/ton, roughly the same as future prices。
Point-to-point transactions are active: today's share of point-to-point sources is significantly higher, and large sugar groups, international food producers, and mainstream electric power platforms have all introduced a point-to-point sales model, reflecting greater divergences in the market over later price movements and a greater tendency for buyers and sellers to lock risks through points。
3. Transactions
This morning, the bulk of the deal was ready, and it fell back yesterday afternoon. The yunnan region is relatively active because of its price advantages, mainly in terms of a rigid pool of middlemen and end users; guangxi has a low level of trade and a high level of sentiment. "build-up-no-go-no-go" psychologically again showed that the exchange, driven by price increases last afternoon, was not sustained。
Iii. Internal and external comparisons: the pattern of internal and external weaknesses continues and import profits continue to expand
1. Outer space
Ice original sugar mains continued the vulnerability adjustment yesterday and reported 14. 62 cents/pounds, down 1. 65%, almost two weeks down. In today's asian trading period, the original sugar price continues to shock at a low level, reporting 14. 58 cents per pound as of beijing time, a decline of 0. 04 cents per pound over yesterday。
The core logic of the external disk drops:
The latest report of the international sugar organization (iso) increased the global sugar overhang to 11 million tons in 2025, up by almost 10 years
Thailand's 1-4 monthly sugar exports increased by 29 per cent to 1. 6 million tons each year, and short-term supply pressures increased
In south-central brazil, new production has been good, sugar is around 33% better than sugar, and sugar production is expected to increase
2. The difference between import costs and internal and external prices
Based on ice original sugar contract of 14. 58 cents per pound:
Extra-quota import costs (50% tariffs): approximately 5080 yuan/ton
Cash price for nanning, guangxi: $5350 / ton
Internal and external price differential: approximately 270 yuan/t, with an increase of about 20 yuan/t
The external and internal price differentials are now at a high level and the margin for import profits continues to expand. If the outwards continue to fall, import profits will increase further, and future influxes of imported sugar will significantly suppress domestic prices。
Iv. Balance and sustainable analysis: the climate balance is balanced and multized enhances
1. Summary analysis
Nanning's current base difference (current - sr2609): 5350-5393=43/ton, slightly greater than yesterday's -39/ton
Kunming's current base difference (current - sr2609): 5195-5393=198/ton, slightly larger than yesterday's -194/ton
The current base spread has increased slightly, mainly because futures prices have increased more than spot prices. Overall, however, the current correlation remains strong, and the futures ' lead role in spotting is highlighted。
Warehousing and warehouse receipt analysis
Warehousing: as at 26 may, sr2609 contracts held 68. 25 million hands, an increase of 10. 01 million hands over the previous day. The first 20 net blanks, 173,000 hands, was about 300 million fewer than the previous day, and the empty force was slightly reduced. Today's early-disk hold continues to increase, indicating an increase in the number of games between the two sides。
Status of warehouse receipts: as at 26 may, the number of sugar warehouse receipts at zheng chamber of commerce was 23040 (approximately 23. 04 million tons), 200 fewer than the previous day and 300 more valid forecasts. The small decrease in the number of warehouse receipts for two consecutive days reflects the fact that part of the warehouse receipts began to flow out of the delivery depot and into the spot market。
Core contradictions and risk indicators
Current market core contradictions
Paradoxically one: the conflict between domestic overstretching demand and global oversupply
Paradigm ii: conflict between high domestic stockpile pressure and a rigid downstream replenishment
Paradox three: policy expectations (import quotas) and market sentiment
2. Main risk factors
Import quota risk: 1. 945,000 tons of general trade import quotas have not yet been issued and the market is generally expected to land between the end of may and the beginning of june. Once quotas are issued, the concentration of imported sugar in ports will have an impact on the spot market。
The risk of a drop in the external disk: ice original sugar price has fallen by 14. 7 cents/pound key support, and if it continues to go down to 14 cents/pound, it will be more burdensome for domestic sugar prices。
High stock risk: as of the end of april, the national stock of the sugar industry was approximately 5. 38 million tons, which is high over the same period of the calendar year. Guangxi has a marketing rate of only 48. 79 per cent, which is nearly 14 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and the pressure on sugar mills to sell remains high。
Vi. Post-market outlook and operational recommendations
1. Short-term trends judgements
Today's shock in the sugar market shows that multiple forces have increased, but fundamentals have not changed fundamentally. The sr2609 contract is expected to shock between $5350-5450/tonne, 5420 above, 5370 below。
2. Body-based operational recommendations
Sugar mills: reaction opportunities continue to be used to accelerate sales, reduce stock levels and ease cash flow pressures. An appropriate increase in the percentage of sales at point prices could be made to target part of the profits。
Brokers: it is not appropriate to follow up the high levels of stocks blindly, and those holding stocks in their hands should be safe and secure. The low-cost source of goods in yunnan could be of concern, with adequate replenishment of stocks to prepare for later sales。
End-users: continue to maintain the "as-you-go" strategy, with a small complement of 7-10 days of production demand today. Close attention is paid to information on import quota issuance and outward movements, pending price reversals before large-scale procurement。
Focus this afternoon
Sr2609 will the contract stand by $5,400 / ton gate
Whether the sale of goods in guangxi and yunnan is sustainable
Afternoon, ice
