On 8 june, the zhengzhou commodity exchange white sugar main contract sr609 received **5330 yuan/t, a decrease of 0. 34% ** per day. At the same time, international sugar prices (ice primary sugar contract) rose by 0. 27 per cent**. Why did the rise in international markets, in the context of the inflows of nearly **9. 98 million yuan**, “disregarded” the decline? (blockview://markdown-image-tos-cn-i-t/48a1b15fd61c435686020a6ba9bcae18)# # domestic increase and high stock is the most direct price “ceiling” to understand this seemingly contradictory trend, at the heart of which is the heavy supply pressure in the domestic sugar market itself. According to industry data, national sugar production during the 2025/26 season is expected to reach **1. 276 to 1285 million tons,** an increase of **14. 7 to 15. 2 per cent over the same period.** (blockview://markdown-image-tos-cn-i-t/32207a2814f54cba90883d060d58c786) this means that domestic sugar production during the current season will be at its highest level in nearly 11 years. The immediate consequence of the large increase in production is the rapid accumulation of stockpiles. At the end of march this year, the national stock of the sugar industry had reached **6. 7 million tons,** 1. 4879 million tons over the same period,** the size of which is the highest in nearly a decade. More crucially, sales are slow because of the low consumption season and demand-driven downstream purchases. The cumulative sugar sales rate as at the end of march was only **43. 36 per cent**, a significant slowdown over the same period **12. 42 percentage points**. This is equivalent to a stocking of goods in the warehouse, but the delivery rate is much slower than in previous years. # the import profit window is open, but the policy “lock” limits supply increments theoretically, and international sugar price increases can be channelled domestically to underpin them through import costs. Currently, in international sugar prices of 14-15 cents/pounds, the cost of out-of-quota imports is approximately ** 5100-5200 yuan/t.** while domestic cash prices in guangxi are ** 5320-5365 dollars/t.** the import profit window is indeed open. However, profits do not equal actual imports. According to data from the general customs administration, in april 2026 our sugar imports amounted to only **30,000 tons**, representing a significant decrease of 78 per cent over the same period.** the key constraint behind this is import policy. The market generally expects that the scope of the first import licensing outside the quota for the current year will shrink to approximately **9-1 million tons**. This means that even when cheap sugar is available overseas, it cannot flow heavily into the domestic market and that high domestic stock pressures cannot be effectively diverted through imports. As a result, a small increase in international sugar prices has had very limited support for domestic contracts in recent months. # the focus of the market game has shifted towards the financial movement expected on the horizon in the future, clearly reflecting the market's differences between the current dilemma and the possible future. The warehouse data of 8 june show that the operation of the head agency is quite the opposite:** the galaxy futures** have increased by more than **,2083**, while** the futures of guo-gwan** have increased by **,2241**. This division is the interpretation of the same basic set of data by both sides. - ** air-borne logic** focuses on reality: super-high stocks and low-season demand are immediate and inescapable, and prices have the incentive to continue looking downwards. -** multi-role logic ** for the future: the upcoming hot season for consumption, such as summer beverages, may lead to improved demand; at the same time, strict import control policies are tantamount to creating a “policy base” for domestic prices, and long-term contracts may also be supported by potential profits from el niño weather affecting global production. As a result, the fall of 8 june can be seen as a reflection of the fact that, for the time being, real pressure has prevailed in the high-stock reality** and the boom season** and policy expectations**. The modest increase in international sugar prices has not been sufficient to reverse the supply and demand patterns facing domestic contracts in recent months. # the next decision should focus on the evolution of several core variables, whether industrial clients, investors or market observers, by focusing on the complex situation of three key variables facing “inner worry” (high stocks) over “outside” (international rise). -** for industry and purchasers**, institutional views such as construction futures suggest that import profit windows may persist in the short term. Industry clients can focus on this window, but it is important that the specific implementation tempo and intensity of import policies** be the primary prerequisite for decision-making, rather than simply based on price differentials. - ** for investors** in the short term, domestic sugar prices are expected to sustain shocks, making unilateral trends difficult. There is a need for greater operational caution, focusing on two directions: the first is the actual start of the summer consumption season** to see whether the pace of de-diposition of the stocks is higher than expected; the second is the follow-up to the import control policy** and any official information on the issuance of quotas could trigger market fluctuations. - ** for trend observers**, the purple weather futures hint, el niño weather's potential impact on sugar cane production in the world's main production area has become an important potential top variable for sugar prices. This means that while focusing on data on domestic stocks,** weather conditions in home-producing countries such as brazil and india in the second half of the year** will be a key external factor influencing the long-term pattern of domestic and foreign sugar markets. The market is between the reality of stocks and future weather stories, waiting for a counterbalanced code。
