First, let's get to the point: what's a double cut? What's going on next week
A lot of starters listen to the word "cuts" and feel like some mysterious agency is operating in a dark box. As a matter of fact, handing over is a derivative contract that expires。
There are three main types of cut-off days in the a stock market, with a monthly round:
First vehicle: futures + futures — third friday per month. According to the latest rules of the institute, the final trading date for the june 2026 stock reference futures and shares option 2606 contracts was 19 june (friday) and the cut-off price was the average arithmetical value of the last two-hour index, with the increase and fall of the cut-off scale to > 20 per cent on the same day。
Second vehicle: fulfilling a50 index future delivery - penultimate working day per month. The june a50 cut-off date, 26 june (friday), is the singapore exchange's contract, and foreign investment can trigger large-scale short-term fluctuations as it operates its core a share through the north。
What happened to the crash next week? There was only one week between 19 june (for futures/opportunities) and 26 june (for a50s) and 24 june (for the fourth wednesday of each month). In other words, in late june it was almost "dealing every day" and institutional funds were moved for months, and the operation of the silos was extremely intensive, and market fluctuations were naturally magnified。
According to the data of the institute, the reduction by half since 2026 (except for high-frequency transactions) of the price of stock forward delivery charges has objectively reduced the cost of institutional delivery, but also meant that the game on the date of delivery may be more intense。
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Are you sure it's going to fall? Don't be fooled by the spell
There's a magic spell on the market. That's only half of it。
The truth is that the date of delivery will increase, but the direction will not be fixed。
Historical data are repeatedly validated: the most prominent features of the cut-off date are increased tail fluctuations (especially at 1430 - 1500), excessive funding competition for settlement prices and a high risk of sharp drops in “plugs”. But it's going to fall? It's a simplistic market game。
Why is it volatile? Three reasons:
First, the agency concentrates on displacing. Futures contracts expire, many empty positions are filled, and a large number of sales orders are concentrated in a short period of time, like the intersection of late-time peaks, and cars are easily blocked。
Secondly, settlement price battles. The cut-off price is the average arithmetical price for the last two hours. If the agency holds a large number of silos, the weighting shares may be raised to make the settlement price high; the reverse is pressured. This game is particularly visible on the tailboard。
Thirdly, the fdi transmission effect. At the time of delivery of the a50, foreign investment in core weight shares, such as the maotai and the ningdeh era, could trigger a chain reaction by channelling funds north to the a stock spot market。
So remember, the date of delivery isn't "the day to fall" but "the day to rise." it may also be very high, or it may fall too fast. The key is whether your position can hold the shock。
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Where's the big drive? What's the late june
Let's take a look at the big picture。
To begin with, the conclusion is that the market rate in late june was a pattern of "top-and-bottom" shocks, with structural conditions prevailing and a general surge。
At the macro level, in 2026, the a stock as a whole was in the "structured slow cow" consensus. The annual strategy of many head agencies points out that the core logic underpinning unit a is still solid: sustained macroeconomic policy, accelerated industrial transformation, deepening capital market reforms, capital flows, and declining overseas disturbances。
In the short term, however, there are several real pressures at the end of june:
One is the seasonal financial strain. At the end of the half-year, the pressure on banks, the mpa (macroprudential assessment), and market liquidity are often tight, which may result in a lack of sustained drive on the bulk。
The second is the intersection effect. As noted earlier, three cut-off days, on 19, 24 and 26 june, were heavily devastated, with frequent institutional silos, and index numbers were easy to pull repeatedly at key points。
The third is the high and low switch of the plate. In the first half of the year, technology, ai, robotics, etc. Were on fire, and some of the shares accumulated large profit pools. Towards the end of the half-year period, the agency had the urge to lock in the proceeds, and the senior subject unit was under pressure to turn back。
The policy is clear. If the index goes down quickly, it may trigger the entry of the funds for the escort. So don't expect a big drop, and don't fantasize about a big boom。
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Iv. How do we catch the plate hot? These three lines are worth watching
The shock market does not mean that there is no chance. The key is to be right and right. In the current market, three main lines are clearer:
1. High dividends "pressure stone": banks, electricity, coal, chinese head
When market volatility increases, capital instincts run to "safe". It's a typical safe haven. Bank dividends are generally between 4 and 6 per cent, and those of electricity and coal are more than 5 per cent, and these block institutions are stable and relatively low。
The logic is very hard: the slowdown in economic growth, and the high dividends asset value ratio of the "class bonds" attributes is highlighted. Together with long-term funding allocations such as venture capital, social security and so forth, such blocks, although not rising fast, fall less than others, and rise more when they rise, and are suitable as a base。
2. Technology growth "flex source": ai, semiconductor, advanced seal, machine people
This is the main market line this year and the most volatile direction. In the 2026 vision, it was made clear that the global ai industry trend resonance was an important underpinning and that it was expected that there would be continued gains in the subdivisions of advanced sealing, chip design and computing infrastructure。
But be careful with the rhythm: the technology unit is not suitable for catching up near the date of delivery. Because of the volatility and leverage of such blocks, once the market is shaken, the profit drive is the fastest. The right thing to do is to wait for the shift back to the critical support level, and then lower the snorkels, and not a single slug。
3. The recovery in consumption is "failure": white wine, household electricity, communications
The first half of the consumption block showed average performance, but there were policy catalysts for expectations in the second half. If consumption promotion policies are followed, there may be a "less than expected" recovery in this direction. At present, however, consumption is in the "left layout" phase, suitable for patient, short-term investors。
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V. A 10-year blood and tears summary of the shroud: these five laws are particularly useful in the vicinity of the date of delivery
This is what i really wanted to say to my newest friend after more than a decade of paying tuition。
Rule i: the warehouse position is reduced to less than 50 per cent by 1-2 days before delivery
It's not gibberish, it's discipline. You can't believe in the spell, but you can't ignore the fact of the high volatilities. You can sleep even if the tail drops. If you're heavy, you'll lose your mind when you fall, and you'll be completely deformed。
Specific practices: control of the general warehouse position within half a warehouse before closing on wednesday, 18 june. If there is a high-profile stake in the hand, it is necessary to reduce the interest in locking ahead of schedule. Don't think about "a day to go." the day before delivery is often the peak of money-scrambling。
Rule two: 30 minutes on the tail, less impulsive
The 1430-1500 delivery days (and one day thereafter) were the most volatile periods of the day. The multi-empty fund competes for settlement prices, and the index may rush or crash in minutes. This is a good time to watch the disk, but don't put it down so easily。
Many newcomers at their expense ate it here: they saw the tailboard suddenly pull up, thought they were going to go up and go in there; the next day they went down and were covered. Or see the tails jumping, panic cutting, cutting at the bottom。
It's the old stockholders' practice to do it on the day of delivery and try to do it in the morning. In the afternoon, especially on the tailings, the focus was on watching. If it has to be done, it will be decided five minutes before closing and seeing how things are going。
Rule number three: small capitalization, subject matter units, as much as possible on the date of delivery
Historical data show that the style of the delivery day market is distinct: large plate blue shares are highly resistant to falling, small and medium-sized stock shares are 15-20 per cent higher than ordinary trading days and are more likely to fall. High-level subject units are more likely to be trampled by profit-making knots。
Why? Because the agency needs to be flushed on the day of delivery, the preferred option is a well-moved big blue chip. The small plate was unguarded and fell harder. So i'd rather hold the "buring" stock near the date of delivery than bet on the "stimulating" little demon stock。
Rule four: make sure you stop the damage. Strictly enforce it
It's the easiest mistake a rookie can make. Smallpox falls before buying, buys and falls, and the deeper they go, they turn from small to large。
I'm losing discipline: a stock that breaks critical support, or drops by more than 5 per cent a day, and decreases without conditions. It's not that we don't look after the market, it's that we keep the principal before we turn around. Days of delivery fluctuated and losses were more decisive, as once the trend deteriorated, the rate of decline would be much faster than usual。
Rule five: don't gamble on the date of delivery. You can't gamble on the agency
Some occupant likes to do short lines on the date of delivery, and they feel "high volatilities and opportunities". But the truth is that the fluctuations in the date of delivery are, to a large extent, the result of an institutional game, where information and tools are at a disadvantage。
The agency has algorithms, hedge tools, real-time data. A cell phone, a trading software. In this asymmetrical game, the best strategy of the diaspora is not "participation," but "avoidance." when the date of delivery passes, the market returns to normal and opportunities are found。
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Vi. Guidance for new hands to avoid pits: these five pits, i've stepped on you never again
Pit one: superstitious "the day of detachment."
As stated earlier, the date of delivery may not fall. If you're empty on every delivery day, you may miss several bounces a year. The correct approach is to control the position and select the target, rather than to clear it in a one-size-fits-all manner。
Pipe ii: make the date of delivery "the day" and a so-ha
Some people feel that the day of delivery falls is an opportunity. The problem is that the drop in the date of delivery may be only the beginning, followed by multiple pressures such as a50 and late-season funding constraints. We're gonna have to split up and keep our hands down。
Pipe three: financing leverage plus cut-off date, equals death
And then you'll be able to get a reverse swing if you add leverage. In 2026, there was a significant increase in the average value of options, the cost of market games was rising and the risk of leverage was increasing. (b) ordinary dispersed households, away from financing, especially before and after the date of delivery。
Pipe four: listen to "inner news" and "on the day of doom"
There are always claims on the market that they "know the direction of the agency's cut-off day", and that's not true. The agency's specific holding and removal plans are commercial secrets and cannot be disclosed. The "message" you heard was either fake or someone wanted you to pick up。
Cat five: after losing money on the day of delivery, you're in a hurry to turn over the money
It's a mental problem and it's the deadliest. If you lose the date, your judgment or rhythm goes wrong. It is time to stop and repeat, rather than increase the stakes to win back. In the stock market, it's 10,000 times more important to live than earn。
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Vii. Investment perspectives: why can anyone make money in a
Finally, talk about mentality. I've seen too many people, technical analysis, basic research, but no money in the stock market. Why? The mind doesn't stop。
First, accept "unperfect." no one can buy at the lowest and sell at the highest. What you can do is buy in a relatively low position, sell in a relatively high position and experience normal fluctuations in the middle. The fluctuations in the date of delivery are the magnifying version of "normal fluctuations" and get used to it。
Secondly, lower expectations. A lot of rookies come to the stock market thinking, "twice a year." the truth is, however, that unit a is already at the top 10-15 per cent of its long-term annualization gains. Putting expectations down, the operation is more comfortable。
Thirdly, build their own systems. When, when and where to buy, how to sell, and where to stop the damage, these rules need to be clear before the transaction takes place, not on an ad hoc basis. The coping strategy for the date of delivery should also be included in your trade plan。
Fourth, make the stock market a side business, not a casino. If you stare eight hours a day, the mood goes up and down on the k-line, it means you're too heavy, or you think the stock market is the whole of life. The right approach is to invest in money that does not affect life and to hold it over time without anxiety。
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Viii. Long-line logic: is the value of a worth worth holding on to
After talking about short cut-off days, we end with long lines。
My point is that unit a has been up for a long time, but the process has been bumpy and structural opportunities far outweighed the chances of a general increase。
In terms of valuations, the current stock of a is at a historically low level, with a number of high-quality firms already having more dividends than bank revenue. From a policy standpoint, capital market reforms are deepening, registration systems, de-marketing systems and splitting regulations are improving and market ecology is improving. In industry, new industries, such as ai, new energy sources, and high-end manufacturing, are emerging to provide a continuous stream of high-quality targets for the market。
But the long line doesn't mean "dead." even a good company buys expensive ones; even in cattle markets, there is a huge return. The essence of long-term investments is to buy high-quality assets in a reasonable valuation and then hold them patiently, ignoring short-term fluctuations。
Such short-term fluctuations in the delivery day are hardly a source of anxiety for long-term investors. Even if high-quality assets are mistakenly killed as a result of the panic over the delivery day, it is an opportunity for long-line layout。
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At the end
Next week, double-crossing crashes are inevitable. But volatility is not a risk per se; your response is a risk. Controlling positions, avoiding volatility, maintaining discipline and maintaining mentalities is 16 words that make it easier to do so, and can win most people。
The stock market road, no shortcuts, no grail. Every cut-off day is a risk education course; every shock is a mental exercise. The old stockholders survived not because they were so predictable, but because they chose to be conservative when they should not risk it。
Remember: in this market, first to survive, then to profit。
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This paper, which is intended for individual stock market experience, financial market objective analysis and sharing, does not constitute any investment proposal, equity recommendation, financial stewardship, revenue commitment, stock market exposure, investment caution, and individual ability to make rational decisions based on their own risk。
If you think it's useful, ask attention, don't get lost
