The transfer of funds to the app message — thursday, 5 february — was carried down by the wti futures since the intermittent dialogue between the united states and the united states was reported to have resumed. According to the information received, the two powers agreed to hold talks in amman on friday. The news triggered a small recovery of profits following the sharp increase in oil prices yesterday, but did not completely squeeze out the purchases made in response to supply disruptions。
Foreign negotiations have been repeated, and the oil price shock has intensified this week
This week, oil prices fell: on monday, following president trump’s statement that dialogue was taking place, oil prices fell sharply, and on wednesday, the media reported negotiations or breakdowns, which then jumped. This was preceded by tensions in the strait of hormuz, when the united states navy shot down an iranian drone。
Negotiations are ongoing, and the risk of a military strike remains
Despite the resumption of negotiations between the two sides, the market was concerned that trump would meet the threat of attacking iran or trigger a larger conflict in the region。
If the strait of hormuz were blocked, oil prices would rise by $10-20
If the united states strikes against iran, the conflict is likely to spread throughout the middle east. As an opec member state, iran may block the strait of hormuz and prevent oil tankers from leaving the area. About 20 per cent of global oil consumption is to be transported through this channel, and oil prices will rise by between $10 and $20 as a result of shocks to opec oil-producing countries such as saudi arabia, the united arab emirates, kuwait and iraq。
Eia data: reductions in crude oil stocks were more than expected
The us-iraq negotiated news has led to a decline in the geo-risk premium, but the united states energy information agency (iea) stock data support oil prices. As of the week of 30 january, the eia report showed a double decline in crude oil and distilled oil stocks, which exceeded market expectations, while petrol stocks increased during the same period。
Technical analysis: the upward trend in american crude oil is well maintained
The current dominant trend in us crude oil is upward, according to the dailies. Prices rebounded after touching a low of $54. 98 in the preceding period and are still in the rising structure。
If prices go through the 66. 48-66. 60 pressure zone (high-point intensive areas in the previous period), the strong upward trend will be reconfirmed; if the decline breaks down to the $58. 52 support position, the main trend will shift to the downward trend。
Key support and axis
Core support compartments: $60. 66-59. 29 with a double support of 50-day mean lines ($59. 37) and 200-day mean lines ($62. 29), which constitute the support zone。
Short-term fluctuations: $66. 48-61. 12, resulting in the measurement of a key pivotal position of $63. 80, with oil prices currently near the axis, with a more visible multispace game。
Rising trend line dynamic support
(wti crude oil daily figure)
The upward trend line from the low point of $55. 65 on 7 january is floating at $0. 36 per day, with the current dynamic holding position at $62. 85. This trend line is an important defensive position at many ends in the short term and, if effectively breached, could trigger an accelerated return。
Post-market outlook: me and i negotiate to suppress the upper space
Against the backdrop of continuing negotiations between the united states and the islamic republic of iran, the oil price upturn would probably be suppressed below the $66. 48-66. 60 pressure zone. If there is still no substantial progress in the negotiations after friday, a weakening of market sentiment could contribute to further weakening oil prices。
Once the trend line of $62. 85 is supported, oil prices may accelerate the downswing of $60. 66-60. 69 to support the intensive zone, which is a critical multi-heading zone with a 50-day mean line and a support zone。
