RecentGold pricesIt's getting high
Yesterday, new york's gold futures were on the rise all day long, following the early pick-up of the gold market. The united states stock tailings, which had increased to $2,300 per ounce, increased by 1. 9 per cent in the day, and the cash gold tailings, which had approached $2280 per ounce, increased by more than 1. 2 per cent in the day, all of which were at a record high of three consecutive trading days。
The futures and spot gold were the highest on the income rolls of four consecutive trading days, with a six-day increase. Comex raised gold futures by 1. 09 per cent in june, reporting $2281. 8 per ounce. Cash gold is over $2270/ounce when collected in united states stock, increasing by more than 1 per cent in the day. This morning, cash gold continued to rise overnight, refreshing history to $2287 per ounce。
The gold etf is also high, especially in the small part of the etf, where the premium has already exceeded 20 per cent, despite sustained funding。
Overall, the price of gold has continued to rise recentlyInvestorsEnter the city via the relevant gold etf. The current market for gold-related etfs includes etfs tracking the spot price of gold and etfs tracking the gold stock index。
Referring to the rising logic of this round of gold, the futures analyst, wu jie, stated that the federal reserve’s overnight reverse purchases had continued to decline, from $800 billion at the beginning of the year to less than $500 billion, releasing a large amount of remaining liquidity; the financial conditionality index had also gone down simultaneously, indicating a marginal easing of financial conditions. The rise in market risk preferences has led to significant increases in liquidity-sensitive asset prices, with gold, united states shares and bitcoin performing well. Second, since the beginning of the year, market expectations of the fed's policy have been swinging more significantly twice. First, the market is expected to turn fast in early january, when market pricing will begin to reduce interest rates from march to more than six times a year. Starting in february, the market is expected to experience another round of rapid reversals, with both the time point of the interest rate reduction and the interest rate decrease shifting significantly to the eagle, bringing the price of precious metals back to a price of us$ 2,000 per ounce. However, the subsequent publication of weaker economic, employment and consumption data in the united states in february, most of which fell short of market expectations, showed that the economy was less resilient, which had led to the more hawk-like expectations being largely digested by the market, and the policy emptiness being turned into a lido, further pushing up gold and silver prices. Third is the recent instability in the geo-situation of russia and the middle east, as well as the increased uncertainty in the united states general election, which has created a certain sense of market risk avoidance and has provided a base for the price of precious metals。
At the fed level, new year's futures analyst cheng wei believes that the federal reserve's monetary policy statement and powell's speech provided a comprehensive assessment of economic, employment and inflation prospects, with an upward revision of GDP growth expectations for 2024-2026 and of core pce inflation expectations for 2024 and a downward revision of unemployment expectations for 2024. In terms of economic growth, the fed reiterated that the steady expansion of economic activity, strong consumer demand and the recovery of the supply chain had boosted GDP growth, while immigration had raised the prospects for economic growth; in the area of employment, the monetary policy statement had deleted the phrase “slow employment growth”, arguing that the labour market remained tense and nominal wage growth had slowed; and in the area of inflation, the federal reserve believed that inflation had been significantly reduced, with high figures for the cpi and pce in january, probably due to seasonal adjustments. According to the writer, the federal reserve monetary policy statement and powell's speech suggest that the united states economy remains resilient and that the labour market remains strong despite the slowdown in wages. The short recovery in inflation is largely influenced by seasonal factors, and the continuing downward trend has not changed and will not adjust the perception of inflation. With regard to projections of future interest rate paths, the federal reserve point array shows that the federal funds interest rate is expected to be 4. 6 per cent in 2024, implying three interest-rate reductions during the year, consistent with what was expected last december. In terms of balance sheet reductions, federal reserve chairman powell suggested that the pace of contraction would be slowed soon, and once the market was stable overnight, the reserve should decline at a rate of one to one as the balance sheet shrunk. As the fed's balance sheets continue to contract, the liquidity of the financial markets continues to tighten, and the reserve of the banking system will be quickly depleted once the scale of reverse purchases cannot be sustained, thereby creating liquidity risks for financial institutions, at which point the fed will have to stop the contraction。
“in summary, the federal reserve has maintained interest rates for eight consecutive months since the last increase last july. Despite the end of the fed’s interest-rate cycle, after more than a year of rapid interest-rate hikes, restrictive interest-rate policies have been carried forward and the abbreviations are still operating at full speed at $95 billion per month, with the continuing trend of tight dollar liquidity unchanged. The lingering effects of the overseas monetary tightening have not yet been fully felt, and the united states has continued to experience a collapse of its 10-year and two-year sovereign debt, and it is known from historical experience that once the united states debt yield curve has been reversed, the economy will soon fall into recession and the fed will only be late in its interest rate reduction. As the us labor market and inflation cooled further, the fed’s interest rate reduction was expected to enter a period of repeated intensification, with the us debt return going down rapidly over a 10-year period, leading to lower real interest rates, and a medium-term increase in gold that would continue.”。
Wu jie indicated that further movement of precious metals may be limited in the short term: the recent formal termination of the emergency liquidity tool (btfp) launched by the federal reserve during the silicon valley bank crisis, coupled with the overnight reversal of purchases and the persistence of the abbreviations, limited market liquidity. Yet another advantage of the past is that the fed's dove policy is expected to be fully traded, and therefore, in terms of drivers, precious metals have limited further mobility in the short term. Moreover, last friday, the swiss central bank unexpectedly fell interest rates, making it the first central bank in a developed economy. The decline in interest rates in switzerland, on the other hand, added to the support of the dollar by putting additional pressure on gold and silver prices. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the united states is now at the end of a policy austerity cycle and is under pressure to continue its economic decline. The long-term configuration value of precious metals continues to show, and it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the future, in anticipation of a reduction in interest rates and in response to risk avoidance. As the fed’s interest rate opens, interest rates on us debt will further open up, and the fed’s withdrawal from the abbreviation will provide additional liquidity support to the market. Declines in interest rates and liquidity easing are expected to further stimulate rising gold and silver prices in the future。
In addition, in recent days, a web-based interdiction chart shows that a risk message issued by the police station of the luo-yu police station of shenzhen city of public security stated that, given the seriousness of the current situation with regard to the crime of electrical fraud, gold transactions should be strictly registered in real names, and that persons trading in precious metals, such as gold, totalling more than 20,000 yuan renminbi, should be registered in real names, and the name of the bank card used by the purchaser should be verified and confirmed in accordance with their identity cards。
On 2 april, the staff of the police station in lake lu, shenzhen city, confirmed the authenticity of the internet message。
The risk letters mentioned above indicate that there have been many recent cases in shenzhen of the use of fraudulent funds by telecommunication network fraud syndicates to trade in gold stores, and that a number of businesses have received money to freeze bank accounts。
In order to avoid causing the normal use and even financial loss of the bank accounts of a large number of businesses and to protect against the risk of transactions, the risk circular lists three aspects of care: compliance with the law and the rule of law; identity checks, with retroactive monitoring; and, in the event of unusual movements, suspension of the transaction alert。
In the second paragraph, in addition to requiring the vendor to check the identity of the trader, the vendor should install high-resolution cameras in the shop to ensure that video surveillance coverage covers the face of the transaction and that video footage is kept for at least 30 days。
On 2 april, media interviews with a number of vendors at shenzhen water and gold fairs received a positive response and indicated that the relevant measures had already been implemented. Businesses have advised that gold bars and gold recovery, regardless of the amount, require physical registration, but gold jewellery is not required. Others indicated that 100 grams of gold bars and above required real name registration and less than 100 grams were not required。
Similar cases of “gold money laundering” are known to be frequent. The police in goan, jiangxi province, had recently uncovered a case of collusion between the perpetrators of electric fraud and the staff of a gold store, and had seized six alleged perpetrators of fraud, with a total value of over 1. 2 million yuan in gold, totalling over 8 million yuan。
