On tuesday, november 29th, a news channel was set up on tuesday (28 november)Gold pricesThe upward trend continued, with spot gold trading prices of up to $2043. 04 per ounce after the opening of wall street. Since the start of the day, the united states dollar has been under pressure to sell, and the dollar has fallen to a three-month low in overnight trading, benefiting gold and other metals, at a six-month price。
On tuesday (28 november), the price of gold continued to rise, with spot gold traded up to $2044. 33 per ounce after the opening of wall street. Since the start of the day, the united states dollar has been under pressure to sell, and the dollar has fallen to a three-month low in overnight trading, benefiting gold and other metals, at a six-month price。
(post gold trends)
Cash gold rose by 1. 33 per cent, a fourth consecutive trading day, reporting $2041. 05 per ounce。
Comex raised the gold futures settlement price by 1. 34 per cent in february and received $2060. 2 per ounce。
In december, comex raised gold futures by $27. 60, or 1. 4 per cent, to $2040, a six-month increase from four to mid-may。
Comex raised its silver futures by 1 per cent in december, with $25 per ounce on board at one time, up to a peak of almost three months since 1 september。
Market news analysis
Gold continued to rise on tuesdays, updating its record record record for more than six months, with cash gold trading at a once high of $2043. 04 per ounce since wall street opened. The main driving force behind this increase is the continued pressure of the dollar to sell。
The american bank's metal strategist has stated that, while steel will be the strongest trade in the first quarter of 2024, basic metals are expected to rebound in the second half of the year, while gold will flourish in the summer. According to the recently released metals and mining outlook 2024, while the middle east war boosted gold prices in a short period of time, “goldes will eventually remain the interest rate trade” and new buyers may spill over into the market once the fed announces a decisive end to the interest rate hike。
For the 2024 gold price outlook, united states bank analysts believe that the price of gold could reach $2,400 per ounce if the fed lowers interest rates early. They stated: “in the context of the substantial increase in interest rates in the united states in recent weeks, the price of the gold has remained strong.” the analysts stressed that, given the possibility of a reduction in the interest rate of the fed, the next wave of the price increase could occur in 2024。
Geopolitical tensions have had a positive impact on gold in the recent past, especially in the context of the escalation of war in the middle east. However, analysts point out that the weak demand for real gold etf and the fact that total investor purchases are well below levels since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic suggest that unless interest rates begin to decline, the next round of sustained gold increases is unlikely。
In a broader macro-environment, us banks believe that the united states economy is slowing down and europe barely emerges from recession. Although the rise in interest rates in the united states and the overall decline in metal prices have given rise to some discussion, us banks have warned that fiscal policy remains worrying. As the impact of the fed's interest rate hike gradually became apparent, they emphasized that “low interest rates, coupled with the weakening of the united states dollar, support gold”
For the future, analysts also pointed out that, while the relationship between armed conflict and gold prices was not always direct, as the number of countries involved in armed conflict reached an all-time high, gold could still be pushed to a new high through relations with oil. In this context, market participants are waiting for statements from fed officials and market sentiment has worsened. And recently, americaEconomic dataIt shows that housing prices increased by 6. 1 per cent over the same period, further fuelling the market's speculation that the fed would increase interest rates or be stagnant。
The outlook for the future of german commercial banks shows that by the end of 2024 gold prices are expected to surpass the record high since august 2020. They believed that falling interest rates and weakening the dollar would be the main driving force behind the increase in gold prices, and that the current increase could be driven by speculative empty positions, and that future increases would require further interest-rate reductions, which might require further slowdowns in united states economic data or corresponding comments by fed officials. As consumer confidence rose to 102, gold remained in the middle of the plate and around six months high. Overall, the gold market is being affected by multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to future market developments。
Any signs of cooling the united states economy would make the federal reserve less space to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period – a situation that would benefit gold prices. Concerns about the deterioration of the global economic situation may also facilitate the flow of hedge funds into gold。
The market is now waiting for key economic data this week, mainly the pce price index — the first inflation indicator chosen by the fed. In addition, the november united states procurement manager index (pmi) and revised third-quarter GDP data will be published later this week。
Wednesday, focus on financial data and events
108:30 australia's october unsealed cpi annual rate
209. New zealand federal reserve issues interest rate resolutions
317:00 zew investor confidence index, switzerland, november
418:00 eurozone industrial and economic performance index, november end of eurozone consumer confidence index
521 germany november cpi monthly rate opening
621:30 revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for canada's third quarter, united states of america
723:05 address by barley, governor of the british central bank
823:30 u. S. Stock of eia crude oil from 24 november, u. S. Stock of eia crude oil from 24 november to 24 november, u. S. Stock of eia strategic oil reserves from 24 november
9nd day 02:45 keynote address by federal reserve master
10 days at 0300, the federal reserve publishes a brown paper on economics
