It's closed. Today's 7 main line hotspot reviews, tomorrow's direction

CloseIt's seven main lines todayHotspotA comment. Tomorrow's direction

(this does not constituteInvestment recommendationsThe stock market is at risk and investments need to be prudent)

TodayUnit aThe day-to-day shock was weak, the three indices were green, the market deficit spread, and over 3600 shares were green. The overall characteristics are clear: the collective pressure on the high-tech track, the countervailing financing of the low-level defense plate, and the typical high- and low-level funding of the stock。

Tomorrow, friday, with the month of july's closing window, the two main pressures on the fund to avoid risk on weekends, and the agency's lock-in of revenues are simultaneously present, making it difficult to achieve a full-scale generalization。

Let's start with the overall core conclusions:

The short-term market continues to be characterized by broad-band shocks and extreme fragmentation. High-priority rebounding units give priority to reducing the backlog, rather than blindly capturing the bottom; and funds continue to flow to those tracks where performance is high and valuation low. Operationally, the general position is tightly controlled, no high pursuits, and waits for back-stamping opportunities。

The following is a rewind of the seven most important main lines of the market, objectively combing the current status of the plate, the movement of funds, the opportunities for risk, with a clear focus for tomorrow's observations。

I. Ai computing, light module (communication hardware)

The largest changes in the direction of the planet today, with the return of the computing server, the light module, and the cpo line, many of the taps dropped sharply and the deal was significantly amplified, with clear signs of a loose high-level chip。

The logic of the rise is: the ai industry is expected to drive in the first half of the year, capital expenditure by overseas cloud manufacturers is expected to warm up, and the plates continue to rise, accumulating large profit margins。

The current situation:

In the middle of the disclosure cycle, funds began to worry that performance would not match the large increase; at the end of the month, the agency had cashed up and the pooling had triggered adjustments。

There has been a significant fragmentation within the plate: the head of a persistent large order is supported in the medium and long term; the valuation is under considerable pressure because of pure subject matter, small votes with no performance。

Tomorrow's observation is focused on whether critical supporting positions can be quickly recovered. The short-term adjustment cycle is lengthened if there is a continuous drop; the short-line is only considered to be a super-fall rebound and does not easily reverse the game。

Ii. Semiconductor industrial chain (equipment, materials, storage chips)

The plates are synchronized with the technology tracks, but the internal heat is different. Semiconductor equipment, upstream materials are more resilient; semiconductor design, theme tickets follow a continuous weakness of the disk。

Core support logic: the long-term trend in national production replacements remains unchanged, the crystal-turner plant continues to expand, equipment and material orders are ongoing; the storage chip cycle reheating at the bottom and the industry gradually enters the quantitative price recovery phase。

Current risks: growth track, influenced by external interest rate fluctuations, u. S. Share technology, and easy to follow when market risk preferences fall。

Tomorrow's observation focus: distinguishing the breakdown. Priority is given to equipment, materials and hard core tracks; circumventing unordered semiconductor tickets, rather than generalizing the entire plate。

Biomedicine (innovation, cxo, medical equipment, chinese medicine)

Today, there are few countervailing main lines in the market, moving out of independence and stable financing。

Core catalytic: the plate has been continuously adjusted for several years, and the overall valuation is at a historically low level; the environment for financing innovative medicines has improved marginally; a number of chinese and chinese pharmaceutical support policies have fallen; and, in the case of shocks, both growth and defence are characterized by a combination of high and low funding。

Potential risks: uncertainty in research and development of new medicines, slow pace of recovery of some enterprises ' performance, low rate of recovery, high rate of shock recovery and short-term surges。

Tomorrow's observation focuses on the sustainability of net inflows. If the market continues to shake, the medical plate probably continues to act as a safe haven for money, suitable for low-level layouts and for high recovery。

Large consumption (food beverages, dairy products, white wine, retail)

The consumption plate is fully resilient, with several negative returns and a steady flow of funds。

Core logic: the summer season is approaching and markets are expected to be slowly recovering their domestic needs; prices of raw materials upstream are stable, and there is room for repairing the rates of mouries in mid-stream and downstream enterprises; and plate holding structures are low and underhanded。

Constraints: the pace of the recovery in consumption is mild, there is little risk of explosive performance growth, and the plate scenario is valuation repair and limited flexibility。

The focus of tomorrow's observation is: consumption plates are one of the first defense tracks in the present, suitable for the bottom-silo configuration; waiting for the opportunity to step back in the disc to avoid short-line pursuits after a large increase。

V. Electricity grid, storage capacity, high dividends of utilities

High temperatures continue, multi-terrestrial power loads are highly innovative, and fire and green power operations benefit; ultra-high voltage, grid retrofitting and energy storage policies continue to land. High dividends properties are superimposed, and shock markets continue to favour venture capital。

Slate advantages: cash flows are stable, fluctuations are relatively small, and resistance properties are prominent when market sentiment weakens。

Short-term: the industry has limited growth space, short- and medium-term stock price elasticity, better suited to a robust investor base configuration, and less suitable for short- and long-term profit-making。

The focus of tomorrow's observation: as a defensive direction for hedge accounts to retreat, market panic increases easily and is suitable for balanced configuration。

Vi. Non-ferrous resources (industrial metals, precious metals, small metals)

Craft-in-the-screech saws, precious metal avoidance properties highlighted, and industrial metal games were expected to be repaired。

Drivers: prices of precious metals are supported by a rise in risk-averse sentiment in the market; markets expect a subsequent fall in interest rates abroad, which will benefit large commodities。

There are major risks: international commodity prices are highly influenced by overseas news, dollar fluctuations, high volatility and high uncertainty。

The focus of tomorrow's observation is that it is only for small slots of staged games, which are not suitable for long-term holding of heavy storage, and that it is strictly set to stop losses。

Vii. Big finance (banking, insurance)

The bank block is today in a clear inflow of funds, and state-owned businesses continue to grow stronger, with typical long-line hedge funds。

Core advantages: valuation bottom, high dividends, stable operations, bottom index when markets are significantly adjusted。

Disadvantages: low stock price volatility, low short-term returns, more balance of portfolio volatility and weak short-line speculative value。

The focus of tomorrow’s observation is that, if the index continues to be under pressure, big financial prices will probably be back on the plate again, but it will be difficult to keep the overall market mood warm。

Ii. Day (friday) camera

Tomorrow's double sensitive window: friday + late july。

Baseline scenario (maximum probability)

The inertial test of the early disk index is supported by the maintenance of broad-band concussion throughout the day. High-tech tracks are only short-lived overblown and chronically weak; low-level defense plates such as medicines, consumption and high dividends remain resilient and highly divisive。

Operational thinking:

Warenders: use a rebound to optimize the holding of the hold and gradually reduce the amount of high-level items that are not supported by performance; and a high-quality lead not to panic at the lowest level of emotion and to control the overall silo equally。

Air silos, light silos investors: not so early as to rush down to a one-time retrace, waiting for a steady signal, to set up low-level tracks in batches。

Risk scenario (small probability)

The underfunding of markets, the concentration of venture capital, the collapse of index levels and the further spread of the deficit effect are critical。

Operational thinking: take the initiative to lower the position, reduce the frequency of short-line transactions, retain sufficient cash to watch, and suspend bottom-cutting。

Three: tomorrow, keep an eye on the three wiring signals

Exchange: a benign shock characteristic — a drop in contraction; a rebound with no volume is suspected of continuing。

2. Key support areas: sustain support and sustain structural opportunities; effectively fall support, wind control upgrades and lower hold。

3. Profit effect: multiple main lines synchronise the warming, which is the return of effective funds; only a small number of blocks are strong, most shares fall, and continuity is limited。

Iv. The four most vulnerable trading areas in the recent past

One: to see the technology fall, cut the meat, or no brain

The tracks have become heavily divided, not one size fits all. The problem of non-performance was a fallback; the hard core should not be blindly killed at a low level of mood。

Mistake 2: prefer to pursue the strong plate of the day

Friday funds are in demand, and many plates can move up and down, and shock surges can be caught up in the day and wait patiently for backsliding。

Mistake three: a single track bet

The current market wheel is extremely fast, the main line is switched at any time, the single warehouse is highly volatile, and balanced configuration is a better way of wind control。

Mistake four: frequent short-line operations back and forth

The convulsions of broad bands are repeated, short-line rhythms are difficult to grasp and frequent transactions tend to lose more and more. The direction is unknown and the frequency of operations is appropriately reduced。

Last thought