Cover reporter zhang zhang zhang
In the summer of 2026, are you ready for the barbecue
According to the latest information from the national climate centre, the pacific sea surface temperature in the equatorial middle east is currently rising and is expected to enter in mayEl niñoThe state, which formed an el niño event of medium intensity and above in the summer autumn, peaked in the autumn winter, and the probability of an el niño event is increasing。
On 4 may, in an interview with a cover journalist, mr. Zhou, an expert contracted by china's meteorology network's “facebooker” column, stated that el niño, as a “back-to-backer” of global climate, was born in a distant ocean, but that the atmospheric circulation anomalies that it triggers could spread across the globe. Historically, the super el niño in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 have led to a record global warming. He warned that “this year, perhaps with the arrival of el niño, there is a risk of an increase in precipitation in the south of the country and high temperatures throughout the country。Global warmingOnce again on the fast track, new warming records are likely to follow.”
From july 2023 to july 2024, extreme temperatures at or above 50°c were recorded globally。
The national climate centre expects:
El niño in may
El niño is a spanish-language “holy baby” and refers specifically to the persistence of abnormally warm waters in the eastern and central equatorial pacific ocean。
The latest global seasonal climate monitoring results indicate that there have been significant changes in the equatorial pacific ocean and that the temperature on the surface of the middle east pacific ocean has risen rapidly. On 24 april, the world meteorological organization (wmo) updated its official web page, with the el niÑo phenomenon projected to begin in the middle of 2026 (may-july), affecting global temperature and rainfall patterns. The national climate centre expects to enter el niÑo status in may and to form an el niÑo event of medium and above intensity in the autumn of the summer, which continues at least until the end of the year。
How do we measure the intensity of el niño events? The chief operator of the national climate centre, chen li xuan, described the monitoring by the national climate centre of sea-temperature indices in specific regions, which were determined to be an el niño event when the average absolute value of the three-month slide was 0. 5°c or greater and lasted for at least five months. A medium event is defined as an event at or above a peak of 1. 3°c but less than 2. 0°c, a event at or above 2. 0°c, and a super-maximum event at or above 2. 5°c. Current projections suggest that in september-october 2026, sea temperature will be higher than 2°c or more, and therefore consider the possibility of an el niño event after the end of the year。
Experts:
New warming records may follow
Extremely high temperatures are becoming one of the fastest-growing risks for cities globally, with many urban areas approaching or about to face an equivalent climate of 50°c, threatening health, infrastructure and daily life。
Teacher zhou explained that between july 2023 and march 2024, the equatorial middle east pacific experienced an el niÑo event of moderate intensity, with the nino 3. 4 index reaching a maximum of 1. 5°c in november and december of that year, with events lasting for nine months, superimposed on the effects of global warming and a new historical record of average global temperatures for two consecutive years. According to the world meteorological organization (wmo), at least 10 countries recorded extreme temperatures of 50°c or more between july 2023 and july 2024。
On 16 april, the united nations environment programme organized the “50 cities 50°c” event for world environment day 2026 to advance sustainable solutions to build resilient planet earth。
“it is foreseeable that, between 2026 and 2027, when the events of el niÑo are superimposed on global warming, the world meteorological organization (wmo) will publish a new round of ultra-high-temperature lists at or above 50°c, possibly in more than 10 countries, while global warming is once again on a fast track and new warming records are likely to follow.” mr. Zhou expressed concern about the arrival of extreme temperatures in the future。
National climate centre:
Most of the country has high temperatures
The national climate centre predicts that this summer, affected by the rapid development of el niño, the eastern region is expected to have two more rain belts north and south of the yangtze, with increased rainfall south of the yangtze river, with more precipitation in the north-east and north-west china and less permeable precipitation in the yangtze river; high temperatures in large parts of the country; high numbers and intensity of typhoons throughout the year, with the possibility of landing north of the typhoon or seriously affecting the country。
Among them, high heat waves in the early summers were evident in north-east, north-east and north-central china, with severe droughts in the south-east, south-central and south-west regions。
During the main period, there is a greater degree of tension in the song li, the river basin, the lower yellow river basin and the pearl river basin. After the main period, rainfall was abnormally low and temperature high in the central part of the yangtze river, jianghan, the north-eastern part of the south-west, the south-eastern part of the north-west and xinjiang, with high temperatures and low rainfall prone to weather droughts。
Experts:
Around 2030 or now "super el niño"
So what are the chances of a super el niño this year? As an expert in the scientific communication of the benefits of weather prevention, mitigation and climate change, teacher zhou has long focused on the el niño phenomenon。
He analysed 23 el niño events and 22 la niña events in the twentieth century, five el niño and six la niña events in the first 20 years of the twenty-first century. Statistics show that el niño tends to take place at the summer autumn festival, while events that begin in the spring tend to be more intense and lasting. The maximum intensity of the event is 2°c on the nino 3. 4 index, which is currently less than 10% likely to exceed 2. 4°c (at the level of the super el niño event). Before the 2015/2016 el niño events, scientists had been able to predict successfully that this was a “super” event. Three super events in history span 15-18 years and are now only 11 years from the last super event, so he believes it is very likely that “super el niño” will emerge around 2030。
