China's securities network has been boosted by the demand for coal and steel, and the global dry bulk market has picked up. On 25 september, the baltic dry bulk index (bdi) reported 1614 points, a daily increase of 1. 32 per cent, which has been high since 11 may, reaching 30. 16 per cent in the last three months。
At the same time, the container transport market continues to experience colds, with signs of “failure”. According to the latest data released by the shanghai shipping exchange last friday (22 september), the shanghai export container shipping index (scfi) went below 1000 for three consecutive weeks, a decline of 3. 89 per cent per week, reporting 911 points。
Coal, iron ore demand pulls bdi up
The bdi is considered a “barometer” of the dry bulk market, which is the leading indicator of global trade and is based on the weighting of immediate freight on several major shipping routes, including the baltic sea sea sing index bci (40 per cent), the baltic panama index bpi (30 per cent) and the baltic lean index bsi (30 per cent). Of these, sea-shell vessels are mainly used for the transport of iron ore, with the greatest impact on bdi, followed by panamanian vessels mainly carrying coal and food。
According to the central american futures shipping research team, “the bci index has been strong as a result of the seasonal rise of the bdi index in september, the high price of iron ore in the country on the one hand, and the higher expectations of stock replenishment after the national day on the other. In addition, the panama canal has pushed up its low water level with the recent boom in north america; coal has been associated with high energy prices, with stronger import demand in china and india.”
According to reuters data, australia and brazil accounted for about 80 per cent of global iron ore shipments in 2021, with china being the largest importer of iron ore, accounting for 1. 08 billion tons, or 70 per cent, in 2021, followed by japan and south korea, accounting for 6. 4 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively。
“china is the main importer of iron ore, and real estate and infrastructure are the main uses of iron ore, while the larger variables are essentially real estate”, one practitioner said to the journalist
According to wang keqiang, managing director of the maritime futures investment advisory department, the bci's lead rate has largely been fully realized owing to the lack of improvement in real estate, and will be followed or supported by growth generated by bpi and bsi. Although bdi still has a small upswing space, it will not be as strong as the week of 20 september, and it is less likely that the upswing of the boom will continue until the end of october。
The medium-letter futures also indicate that iron ore is replenished in pre-national day storage and that there is some increase in winter heating coal, but consideration is being given to the impact of a reduction in production control. The price of iron ore and coal transport is expected to go down after the national day and the overall bdi movement is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter。
The container market is “silent”
The dry bulk market has recovered steadily and the container transport market remains “cool”. On 22 september, the shanghai shipping exchange released its latest issue of the shanghai consolidated container shipping index (scfi) of 911. 71, a 3. 9 per cent decline from the previous period and a three-week decline。
Of this amount, exports from the upper seaport to the european basic port cost us$ 623/teu, a decrease of 5. 3 per cent compared with the previous period, and the cost of the mediterranean route by 2. 5 per cent. In the north american route, us$ 1790/feu and us$ 2377/feu were exported from the upper seaport to the us$ 1790/feu and us$ 2377/feu, respectively, which was 5. 2 per cent and 6. 8 per cent lower than in the previous period。
The world container price index (wci) in druri also continued its downfall, from 5. 2 per cent to $1479/feu on 21 september. The shipping costs from shanghai to genoa and shanghai to rotterdam fell by 10 per cent。
Prior to this, the shipping company had resorted to a sharp cut-off, and the druri data showed that the number of route cancellations in the main route increased from 73 in 34-38 weeks to 101 in 39-43 weeks, an increase of 38 per cent。
For the latter, the views of the major container shipping companies varied. On 20 september, peter y. W. Su, minister of finance of the yangming maritime transport, stated at the investors' meeting that the boom season in the third quarter of this year was “disappointed” and that the third quarter was usually a boom season, but that future shipping prices would still be in a downward zone owing to the weak economic performance of the united states and europe。
On 15 september, vincent clerc, chief executive officer of maski, in an interview with the media, stated that “global trade has shown initial signs of a rebound. Despite the difficult economic environment, emerging markets remain resilient, and future upturns will be driven by consumption
