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There is a phenomenon often seen in stock-brushing, and as long as stocks on agricultural plates are raised collectively, all kinds of speculation will soon emerge in the comment area: does agricultural stock rise so much that food is scarce? Shouldn't we have more rice in the house? A large number of ordinary people saw the stock market and immediately went to the supermarket to buy large quantities of food and oil, causing unnecessary accumulation and waste。
In reality, there are often contrasts: agricultural stock rises successively, but the prices of rice flour-eating oils do not go up at the same time. Many have mixed stock-market fluctuations, future stock prices, and the daily retail price of finals bought by ordinary people, to assume that one side will rise and that the other two will rise. These are, in fact, three completely different sets of signals, driven by different and interrelated reasons, but not necessarily synchronized。
Food-relative household tables, various web-based fragmentation messages, weather disasters, international food volatility, stock-market rises and falls, and any single news, can easily raise public concern about rising rice prices. Today we will break up these three easily confused signals and understand the logic behind them so that ordinary people will not be held up blindly by intelligence, and understand which signals really deserve our attention. In this paper, agricultural stocks, bulk commodity futures, and retail food prices at residential terminals are analysed separately, and it is clear what affects each other, and what really leads to the price of our daily food purchases。
I. Many people are confused: agricultural stock, food futures, rice paste retail prices, not once. Yes
The majority of the general population has access to food-related information, the first being stock market news. The perception of a massive rise in agricultural plates, which equates stock prices with real food prices, is a source of much anxiety. Let us first make a clear distinction between the three concepts。
Type i signals: agricultural plate stock prices。
The stock is the market's expectation of the future of the enterprise, not the current price of cash food. The agricultural stock is not all food-growing enterprises, and the sheeting is very mixed, and includes farming, fertilizer pesticides, agricultural machinery, pig farming, fruit and vegetable processing, and food and oil processing。
Agricultural stock rises are often triggered by many factors. It is possible that policies will be put in place to support the development of farming industries; it is possible that later-stage weather events may be predicted by the market, and the returns expected to rise for farming enterprises; it is also possible that capital market funds will be rotated only for short periods of time into defence blocks; and it is possible that the business itself will improve。
Even if the price of rice remains unchanged on the real market, the stock price can go up as long as the capital market is satisfied that the company will be able to make money later. The rise in stock prices is not equal to the increase in market food prices。
Second type of signal: the price of food futures pallets。
Futures are long-term transactions involving the sale price of food at a future agreed time and the market for bulk merchandise. This reflects the forecast of traders and processing plants for food in the coming months。
Futures prices can be influenced by international food prices, weather forecasts, import and export news, storage policies and frequent shocks. Futures, however, are only a predetermined price and are not equal to the current spot price for goods actually taken on the market. Futures can be pushed back, and after a huge increase in volume, realization may not necessarily follow. More futures suppliers of food, food and oil processing plants hedge risk and are not directly equivalent to supermarket rice price。
The third type of signal: residential terminal retail prices, i. E. Supermarkets, vegetable markets, rice, flour, flour, oil for consumption, which we pay directly。
This is the price that really falls to the people's table. The terminal rice price is subject to a combination of domestic food reserves, state-to-city acquisitions, processing enterprise capacity, market supply and circulation links. Our rice wheat rations are very self-sufficient, our reserves are adequate, and we have complete safeguards for price regulation, and retail prices are unlikely to surge。
A brief summary of the three relationships: stock looks at business expectations, futures looks at forwards, retail prices looks at current actual supply. The three will influence each other, but there is no iron law that “a up b will rise”. A lot of short videos on the internet, using the agricultural stock boom as an argument, tell everyone that rice is about to increase prices, essentially to confuse three different sets of signals and create an anxiety flow。
Ii. What are the real reasons for the rise in agricultural stock? What has nothing to do with the price of food
There is a collective upswing in the agricultural sector, and we divide the common reasons for the rise into four categories, so ordinary people can tell against the news, and don't think about rising rice prices。
First: policies are well driven, not related to food price increases
The state has put in place policies related to crop renewal, subsidies for agricultural machinery, support for domestic breeding enterprises and protection of agricultural land. The capital market will assume that the enterprises concerned will be better off in the future, and that the financial resources will lead to higher stock prices。
For example, policies have encouraged the development of domestically produced seeds and stock rises in farming companies. The aim is to increase domestic seed ownership and to guarantee long-term food security, not to presage higher food prices. Rather, the policy orientation is to stabilize food production and stabilize food prices. This pattern has little to do with supermarket rice prices。
Second: financial avoidance wheel, within capital markets, not related to food in kind
The a stock market is characterized by the use of agricultural plates as a defensive block when large plates fluctuate. Other plates are in poor condition, with funds being withdrawn from other tracks, and agricultural stock being bought for short periods, resulting in short-term liftings。
The increase was purely a liquidity exercise for capital markets, and there had been no change in world food production, supply or consumption. After a wave of sex work, they fall back and are not transmitted to food and oil commodities at all. In this case, there is no need to worry about rising rice prices as agricultural stock increases。
Third: extreme weather, pests and diseases, market predicts future reductions
Weather forecasts predict that major production areas may be flooded, subject to continued high temperatures and drought, or that the risk of pests and diseases may increase. Capital markets predict a change in the operating environment for seed and food trading enterprises in the event of a reduction in late-stage food production, which will boost the agricultural stock。
Particular attention is drawn here to the fact that the risk is precalculated and does not amount to reduced production, let alone food shortages. Forecasts are not the same as reality, and the previous upward logic is not valid and stock prices will fall if the later wind is smooth and the harvest is normal. Even when local areas are affected, we have the means to move across regions and place reserves, and local disasters can hardly push up the national retail price of rations。
Fourth: food spot prices are actually rising, leading to improved performance by the enterprises concerned
When domestic food purchase prices are actually up, the price of raw food increases, and the profits of food trade and food and oil processing enterprises improve, the increase in stock prices is linked to real food prices. Even in this case, the rise in raw grains leads to the end-metres, with the middle being the processing, packaging and circulation layers, which lags behind, and the use of reserves by the state to calm fluctuations, making it difficult for market-based rice prices to jump sharply。
Here is a realistic example of a small increase in the purchase price of raw rice, which goes up a ton of rice, but which is processed into rice, with deductions for processing losses and labour costs for packaging logistics. Small increases in primary grains are largely absorbed by processing plants and channels, and changes in supermarket retail prices for rice are reduced and do not increase in proportion to the former。
There is also a margin of error: many of the agricultural units are farm boards, the stock of raw pigs and chickens rises sharply, corresponding to the livestock cycle, which has nothing to do with the price of rice flour rations, and many of them are read in conjunction with the media and misleading readers。
Iii. Food futures are rising and falling
A lot of news will tell us that wheat and maize futures are booming, and many people are panicking about it. Futures portfolio fluctuations do not necessarily fall into the real market, with a distinction between “show expectations” and “real spot price increases”。
First, the expected rise is merely a news stimulus. For example, international conflicts, extreme weather abroad, markets predetermine global food supply strains, and futures rolls ahead. If the subsequent actual harvest is good, the import supplies are sufficient, the book prices are adjusted quickly, and the spot market prices remain intact and are paper-based。
Second, futures are rising, while domestic spot food is rising. This signal is relevant only if the actual sale price of food purchased by traders continues to be high and stocks are strained. It is only when the price of the raw food is actually rising that it is possible to channel it slowly to the processing end。
At the same time, it is important to distinguish between varieties: maize and soybeans have a relatively higher external dependency and are more significantly affected by the international market; and our rations, rice, wheat, and sufficient domestic self-sufficiency have been significantly reduced by the volatility of futures overseas. Even with the rise in international wheat prices, we can stabilize the domestic market for rations by relying on large domestic stocks。
Many netizens are confused between staple foods and cash crops. Soybeans are more used for oil and feed; maize is used extensively for feed; and real chinese eats rice and wheat on a daily basis. The news saw soybeans increase prices, not directly equivalent to the price of rice flour。
By the way, the futures market itself is highly speculative, with short-term booms and drops in speculative capital, and one-day booms and drops, which cannot be considered a direct supply problem。
Iv. The real signal to be noticed: to judge whether the rice is going to increase prices, these four realistic indicators are much better than the stock market
Instead of looking at stock software to judge the prices on the table, and to see the direction of rice prices, it depends on real human indicators in reality, four types of signals that are much more reliable than stock market performance。
Minimum purchase price published by the state (market purchase price)
The lowest purchase price for rice and wheat, the “floor price” for the domestic food market, is published in advance each year. When food harvests and market acquisitions are too low, the state initiates municipal acquisitions to protect the earnings of food farmers. The minimum purchase price increase, which encourages farmers to grow food, does not mean that the end-measure price increases will be substantial. This price protects producers and, at the same time, regulates national reserves to prevent terminal prices from running out of control。
Table 2
The focus is on the rice and wheat-producing provinces of the food-buying market, where the actual prices of the food collected by traders are traded. If it continues to rise steadily, for many months, it is not a day or two of pulsive rise, that is what really happened. Compared to the stock market boom of several days, continuous spot data are of higher reference value。
3. Investment of official reserves
The state regularly puts reserves of rice and wheat into the market. If the market supply is tight, the level of reserves is increased, the amount of raw food in circulation is increased and the cost of purchasing by processing firms is reduced. As long as reserves continue to be released in an orderly manner, food prices will be suppressed and it will be difficult for rice prices to rise significantly. Our national food stock is adequate, and the reserve reconciliation tool is a critical base for price stabilization。
Real retail offers in supermarkets, agricultural markets
In addition to all kinds of news, we look directly at the price of rice flour retailed, and at the actual price sold over the course of several months. Short-term price reductions and small fluctuations in festivals are normal business practices, and only sustained highs over a long period of time are real terminal price increases。
Here, you are reminded that the various “maritime price increases” that are being circulated on the internet need to be identified. Part of this was an increase in prices at individual stores, or higher-end fine rice, with no change in the average price of rice. The price increases for rice and organic flour in high-end boxes are not equal to the price increases for ordinary people's daily food staples, which cannot be confused。
V. Common error in real life. Many people are being misled by online news. The pit
Zone one: agricultural stock is rising
Stock increases are only expected from capital markets, with 10 agricultural stock increases, most of which do not lead to increases in rice prices. Massive stocks of rice cover, with long-standing stocks of food infested with insects and dynamism, result in waste of household goods. Ordinary households normally retain a consumption of 1 to 2 months, which does not require mass accumulation。
Zone 2: the international food is rising, and the domestic rice is rising
International food prices affect us, but their impact is limited. Rice wheat rations are highly subsistence, relying on domestic production and reserve reconciliations that cut off most of the overseas market fluctuations. International food prices have increased, affecting feed, vegetable oils and not directly mapping rice white。
Mistake three: the futures are up and down
Futures are only trade contracts and do not amount to a physical cut-off. Every year, the number of cases in which real food supplies have remained adequate after the massive increase in the number of cases, should not be intimidated by financial news headlines。
Zone four: if the harvest is good, the price will fall
A good harvest does not amount to a sharp fall in food prices, as there is a minimum purchase price threshold to protect farmers from crop yields and to prevent scavenging farmers. At the time of the harvest, national municipal acquisitions were holding the floor price, taking into account the income of farmers and stable prices for urban consumers。
Zone five: individual areas are affected and national food prices are rising
Floods and droughts in local provinces may result in reduced local production, but domestic food can be transported across provinces. One country is affected, other production areas can be replenished, and local disasters make it difficult to raise the national price of food rations。
Food prices from different perspectives: protecting both farmers and consumers
The matter of food prices is itself inconsistent and uniform. Food acquisition prices are too low, low incomes in the field are low, farmers are less motivated to grow food, which has long been detrimental to food security; food prices are too high and the pressure on ordinary working families in cities is rising。
So the current system, on the one hand, guarantees the basic income of farmers in the form of a minimum purchase price, which allows farmers to grow land to earn money, and, on the other hand, relies on large central and local food reserves to regulate the supply of grains in the market by putting them in reserve, thus preventing a sharp increase in the price of end-line rice。
Agricultural shares in the capital market reflect business expectations; futures reflect futures for traders; real domestic prices for rations have an independent regulatory system. The understanding of the three borders does not make stock market performance a human warning。
For ordinary people, it is not necessary to be nervous every time we see agricultural plates rising. A rational view of market volatility does not believe in the price increases of short video platforms. Our national food supply base is solid and there is no shortage of daily food and oil supplies. Of course, let us not go to another extreme, completely ignoring food risks, and saving food remains the business of every ordinary person。
Vii. Recommendations to ordinary people about what to do with all kinds of food news
1. Distinguishing between the subjects of the news, whether the farming unit, the breeding unit or the food rations. Seeing the rise in agricultural plates, let's see what the news is about。
It is sufficient to maintain a normal reserve of household food oils, which can be stored at home for a period of 1 to 2 months in order to protect against tide-proof insects and to avoid mass hoarding. The rice flour was stored for too long and its quality was reduced to waste money。
3. Screening of web-based information and not forwarding unsourced screenshots or sidewalks. If you want to know the real price of food, look more at the official food market information and less at short video sensational titles。
4. Disaggregation of varieties and fluctuations in the price of maize soybeans for rice flour to understand different food uses and avoid conceptual confusion。
5. If it is discovered that the prices of goods are overpriced by the surrounding merchants and that the price of rice has been increased in bad faith, it is possible to call 12315 for a market regulation complaint。
Capital market conditions are changing rapidly, and stock markets can rise and fall, but the rice on the table of ordinary people has a realistic supply and policy regulation bottom. If capital market expectations are to be viewed separately from real-life goods, we will be able to receive all kinds of information rationally, free from anxiety。
** topic: ** you're always on the news, you're worried about rising rice prices when you read about agriculture? How long does your family usually reserve rice oil? The comment section is welcome to share your views, a few words of concern and an ongoing sharing of the economics of the earth。
