The floating fare mechanism for rail passenger transport has gradually been extended. In october 2020, the official announcement of the beijing high state council optimized the adjustment of the high price of the ticket, i. E. A reasonable adjustment of the fare to the different needs of the passengers for travel time and separate services, and the price of the ticket rises and decreases, giving a wide range of passengers more travel options. We consider this five-line adjustment of fare optimization to be a progressive exercise in the pricing mechanism。
We estimate that this fare will be optimized, with the upper limit of the total second-class fare per route increasing by about 20 per cent, but the final price fluctuations will depend on the actual situation. According to our calculations, the maximum fare per kilometre for each route 2x2 is: the yananers are dedicated to 0. 44 yuan (about 19 per cent before optimization), 0. 44 yuan (about 20 per cent before optimization), 0. 40 yuan (about 20 per cent before optimization), 0. 55 yuan (about 19 per cent before optimization) and 0. 55 yuan (about 20 per cent before optimization). Since the announcement of the maximum fare would result in the actual implementation of discount fluctuations based on different factors, the final fare would have to vary according to the actual situation。
Chinese rail passenger fares are generally low compared to overseas. According to the state iron group, in 2021 the chinese railway price per kilometre of passenger fares was calculated at $0. 3 (inco income/passenger turnover estimate), 1/3 of the average fares of japanese railways ($0. 93 per person km) and about 1/4 of the average fares of united states-i railways (usd 1. 1 per person km). We believe that the floating mechanism of ticket prices is expected to continue to open the ceiling in the future。
Valuation and recommendations
According to the ministry of transport and communications, cumulative rail passenger traffic in january-february 2023 recovered to 88. 6 per cent in 2019 (from 83. 4 per cent in january/february to 83. 8 per cent in the same period in 2019, respectively). In march, we projected high iron traffic in kyoto, or more, than during the same period in 2019. In addition, the price of high iron tickets in kyoto, which is flexible, leverages or makes high iron in kyoto a quarter of performance or expectations, we maintain a profit forecast of $10. 48 billion for high iron in 2023, introducing a profit projection of $115. 0 billion for 2024 and maintaining a winning industry rating。
Risk
The epidemic has repeatedly affected the recovery of passenger flows。
