On 8 march 2026, wong ho, the 90-year-old programmer of changjiang in shanghai, was in the middle of the night with 400,000 down payment and a “seven” new deal. He drew a video of a drop of 800,000 on a building in hong kong and heard that the price of the inner ring had risen in a small way, which was getting worse. On the backstage, more than 200 fans each day asked me, like he said, "is it true that shanghai's house prices will fall? Today, i give you a clean answer with the latest real data and bottom logic。
Let's not miss out on the individual cases in the video. Most of the recently painted “facilities” are concentrated on new deft plates in remote areas such as the peri-urban area and mount songjiang, as well as on old and small landless railways, which are over 30 years old. The poor liquidity of the sources themselves and the price reductions are normal market filters and are not at all signals of a “mass decline”。
Speak with the latest five sets of hard core data from 2026, and you will understand. In january, 22,834 used rooms were opened in shanghai, representing an increase of 24. 18 per cent over the same period, the highest level in the same period in almost five years. As a result of the spring festival in february, 11,315 second-hand rooms were sold, a 50 per cent decline in ring-to-ring ratio, but the average price was only 0. 5 per cent, while the average second-hand room prices in the core areas of huangpo and xuxio remained stable at 100,000 plus/ even, with fluctuations of less than 0. 3 per cent. With regard to new houses, the average value of the deal was $77830 per flat in january, representing a slight increase of 5. 17 per cent in the ring, ending the previous upward trend of 43 consecutive months and entering a stable state. In february, the average price was $70,464 per flat owing to the delay in netting, mainly because of the lower overall data from the upswing in the far-off suburbs. Most crucially, in 2026, two rounds of earth shoots in shanghai, though mostly at the lowest price, remained at the centre of the land, without a “floating tide” and with stable land prices and no basis for a sharp drop in housing prices。
In addition to the “article 7” of the 25 february landing, a “stable” tone was set for the building market. The non-citizen social security period has been reduced from three years to one year, and the initial pool of spf loans has increased from 1. 6 million to 2. 4 million, with a maximum of 3. 24 million loans available under the multi-child family policy. It is important to know that the share of second-hand houses in shanghai of less than 3 million is as high as 65 per cent, which means that many have just to buy a house on a public deposit alone, without having to carry high-value commercial loans. The interest rate on initial loans fell to 3. 05 per cent and the interest rate on the provident fund to 2. 6 per cent, the lowest ever. It is clear at the bottom of the policy that market confidence is rapidly recovering, at a time when the “large-scale decline” is clearly not realistic。
Shanghai housing prices do not fall significantly, with four underlying logics at their core. The first is the population, which has stabilized at 8. 5-9 million overseas, with 600,000 new jobs planned for 2026, and leading industries such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, which continue to attract high-income people. The second is industry, with three leading industries in the order of rmb 2 trillion, with 600 companies on the market, and strong industrial power supporting the demand for housing from high-income groups. The third is supply, with a long-standing and stringent land supply policy in shanghai, and continued supply of new housing, especially in the core areas, with no change in supply patterns. The fourth is positioning, with shanghai as an international financial centre, with properties not only as residential properties, but also as asset allocation attributes, with high net value populations throughout the country staring at the core assets。
And, of course, i'm not fooling you. The "diverse" of shanghai city is getting more obvious. The lack of a new plate, a small old one, will continue to decrease prices, even at a price; however, prices will rise steadily in the inner ring core, in the high-quality schools, and in the second place at the subway. There is a need not to stare at the bottom of a “crash” and not to follow the core blindly; investors need to give up their “sliding” thinking and choose the plates more important than anything。
In the end, i'd like to ask you: are you just needed, improved or an investor in shanghai? What house are you looking at? Do you think we should do it in 2026? Welcome to the comment section. Let's talk about your experience and thoughts
