The programme of the fifteenth five-year plan for the national economic and social development of the people's republic of china (hereinafter referred to as “the programme”) integrates “new forms of urbanization” into the broader framework of the “regional economy” and places property-related elements below the livelihood block, which is a strong indication of the “second half” of urban development, characterized by a shift in urbanization from a period of rapid growth to a period of stable development, a shift in urban development from a phase of massive expansion to a phase dominated by stock enhancement efficiency, and a shift in housing demand from “are there or not” to a “well-being”. At a new historical stage, the focus of urban strategies has also shifted to people-centred, tailored and synergistic。
Urban spatial value reshaped and real estate markets “destroyed”
Building on the new phase of our urbanization and development, with “people-centred” as its central focus, with endogenous development as its fundamental path, and with the integration of urban clusters and urban and urbanization as its key initiatives, the platform is oriented towards building modern cities that are innovative, liveable, beautiful, resilient, civilized and intelligent, and has built a systematic strategic framework for urban development. In particular, the platform refers to the promotion of efficient collaboration in the industrial chain of the regional innovation chain, “the implementation of initiatives to stimulate the dynamism of industrial innovation and to enhance the sources of innovation in urban industries”, with a focus on coordinating industrial and scientific strategies to address the problem of “discretionation” of industrial development and regional innovation and to strengthen the role of cities as “space carriers” in the construction of modern industrial systems. The platform places the promotion of high-quality real estate development within the framework of greater security and improvement of the livelihood of the population, and solidly promotes the prosperity of the entire population. Based on the improvement of the housing security system, the programme gives greater attention to the smooth and healthy development of the real estate market, generally based on the transition from a “total shortage” to a “basic balance, structural undersupply and relative insecurity”。
Unlike the platform, the report on the work of the government places real estate within the framework of “strengthening risk prevention and security capacity-building in the focus areas”, reflecting the unresolved issues of housing firm debt risk, high stock levels and expected weakness, while the short-term focus on real estate remains risk disposal and market stability. In addition, the real estate market policy statement in the report of the government is more moderate than in the past year, adjusting the term “sliding back” to “stabilizing” and optimizing the term “promoting the acquisition of stock of commodity houses” to “encouraging the acquisition of stock of commodity houses focused on secure housing, etc.”. The general continuation of the governance approach of “accumulation control, de-stocking, good supply” with little new stimulus, with the exception of the reform of the housing fund system, suggests a policy preference to “stable and unsettled” and to gradually mitigate market risks, avoiding systemic risks and excessive dependence on real estate. Real estate will still benefit from release in 2026, but the likelihood of over-anticipatory stimulus is low and policy resources will need to be channelled more to new dynamic areas。
In real terms, the real estate market has shown signs of warming since 2026, with the decline in the 100-hand urban residential price index from january to february being markedly narrow, but largely influenced by seasonal factors such as school districts and pre-seller watch. There has also been a marked improvement in the ring of house prices over the same period of the previous year, but more often than not, after the “golden four” line, re-enters the lower road. In general, the price of second-hand houses has fallen by almost 30 per cent since its peak in 2021, and indicators such as the ratio of income from home prices and rental and sale rates have reached a reasonable level, but the demographic structure, the income of the population, the price level, etc. Still pose constraints. It can be said that the current price rises and falls are more resistant and that the market may continue to grind until it is expected to be reversed。
To bring together the city and the city, the city partners
In the context of the programme's urban policy orientation and the functioning of the real estate market, it is clear that the old model of urban development is unsustainable, while the integration of productive cities, by organicizing industrial development with the functioning of cities, provides a new idea of a symbiotic process of production, life and ecological integration, which has become a key path to new forms of urban development and has entered the fast track. In the context of productive integration, the real estate and construction industries are undergoing a profound transition from traditional developers and contractors to “city partners”. The logic of closing an enterprise once it has completed has been broken, the enterprise can be deeply involved in the late operation of the productive city integration project, reaping benefits through a continuous share, and it is expected that the “dual sum” under the “light assets” model will be reduced. Large enterprises with integrated capacities can further assume multiple functions such as park planning, space construction, industrial import, and solicitation of capital. In the future, it can be said that enterprises will be better able to integrate resources to address regional development issues than to combine quality, technology and complementary services。
Industrial clusters are at the heart of productive integration. There is a need to bring up- and down-stream enterprises together through the chain owners' “drop-in” model, to create “up- and down-the-street” industrial ecology, to provide a chain-wide system of productive services, and to work together to build national priorities such as zero carbon parks and science-creation parks. Accompanying facilities support the integration of the productive city. A network of living services, such as catering accommodation, health care, cultural entertainment, etc., is needed to form a mixed lwp (life + work + recreation) community model. Innovation empowerment is the highlight of integration in the productive cities. Innovative convergence of elements can be promoted through the in-depth pooling of research in productive sciences to enhance the capacity for innovation and sustainable development of productive integration projects. Numerical and greening is a trend towards integration in productive cities. The focus should be on smart and green construction, promoting new technologies, materials, processes and equipment。
Real estate enterprises should take full advantage of land development and space-building capabilities and assume the role of space carrier providers and integrated operating service providers in the integration of productive cities through product line innovation and upgrading of business models. Building enterprises should assume the role of infrastructure builders and public service providers in the integration of productive cities, based on their own engineering technical capabilities and project management experience, consistent design, construction and operation functions. Financial enterprises can focus on the need for financial security, consultancy services, risk management throughout the life cycle of the project, and assume the function of finance hub, industry catalyst and risk buffer in the integration of productive cities。
It needs to be noted that transition offers opportunities and implies more challenges. Specifically, the first is the risk that market and policy changes may pose in a long cycle. The income from the productive integration project is based on long-term income such as tax share, rental income, property proceeds, asset value addition, etc., which is long-lived and uncertain. In addition, the policy red line for local government debt control has been tightened in recent years, with many areas of non-compliance having been halted, creating challenges for productive city integration projects. The second is the high demand for long-term business capacity. The core competitiveness of the urban partnership model lies in the long-term combination of industrial imports, business operations, community governance, public services and asset management, which test the upgrading of the capacity of traditional real estate and construction enterprises, with the risk of asset idle if capacity fails to meet standards. Third is the high exit threshold and stringent approval of the secondary market. While traditional development and construction projects complete the completion of sales delivery and completion of the completion of the project, the core value of the productive city integration project lies in long-term operation, the withdrawal of equity resale, securitization and other forms of asset securitization are highly demanding for the project's operational gains and the quality of the assets。
The chinese institute for metal mining economics (ciem)
