Family members, most recently ock's voice about the city, is estimated to have been painted by a large number of people, but many may have looked at the official statements, but still a little cloudy. I'm gonna use our words today to get this whole thing straight。
Let us be clear about the core facts and not be bypassed by complex terminology. Occo has made it clear that this year our country's total trade in new and second-hand houses has been largely stable, with no major ups and downs. One of the most critical numbers — the share of second-hand deals has increased to 45 per cent! What is the concept? It is almost four and a half sets of second-hand rooms for every 10 units that have been closed, which is twice as high as 28 per cent in 2021, and has changed considerably. There is also good news that the decline in house prices has continued to shrink, meaning that the previous situation, in which house prices were falling one by one, is slowing down. Finally, it was made clear that there was room for high-quality real estate development in terms of demand and improvement. This is the central fact of this hotspot, which is not so complicated, and it is summed up by the fact that the market is stable as a whole, that second-hand houses are becoming more and more fragrance, that house prices are falling slowly and that there is room for development in the future。
Then we'll figure out why this is happening. In particular, the share of second-hand houses could rise to 45 per cent, which is definitely the result of a foot vote by ordinary people. The first, and most practical, reason is that groups in need are more inclined to buy second-hand rooms. Most of the new citizens who are now in need of housing are recently graduated students, newly settled migrant workers, who have a limited budget for the purchase of housing, and the most important ones are “safety” and “practical”. The greatest advantage of second-hand homes is that they are live, and you can actually see the size of the house, the light, the company of the district, the property, and then not wait years for a new house, much less the risk of rotting. In retrospect of the new housing market, a number of buildings have been delayed by problems and have even rotted, which has frightened everyone. As a result, second-hand rooms are naturally a more economical option for budgetary constraints and the pursuit of sound demand。
The second reason is that the demand for better sex is being released and that many of the improvement needs are “sold and bought”. Now, many of our towns are still small and small, or have an unreasonable family size, and as the family population increases or the standard of living improves, we want to get a bigger and better house. And the most immediate way to get a new room is to sell the used room in your hand first, so that it can be paid first. This creates a cycle: there are more people selling second-hand houses, and the trade in second-hand houses is naturally going up; after selling old houses, they buy new houses and stabilize the market for new houses. It is also mentioned that the willingness of the population to sell old houses for new ones is on the rise in many cities, and that “good houses” are generally sold, and this is the truest picture。
The third reason is the dual orientation of markets and policies. On the one hand, emphasis is now being placed everywhere on “controlling increments and de-stocking”, reducing the availability of land for new homes in cities with large stocks, which are relatively small, and the proportion of second-hand houses naturally goes up. On the other hand, there are a number of policies in place to support the trade in used houses, such as reducing taxes and fees on second-hand houses, optimizing the loan process and making it easier and cheaper. As in the major cities of beijing, shanghai and guangzhou, the trade in second-hand homes has been rising in recent months, and the average price of second-hand houses in guangzhou rose by 2. 1 per cent in november. Moreover, as the rental market becomes more and more regulated, the policy of “rent-to-purchase” has slowly fallen and diverted part of the demand for housing, allowing those who temporarily do not want to buy it to choose to rent, which indirectly leads to a greater concentration of demand and improvement, which is linked to second-hand housing。
After all, let's talk about the implications of these changes, which are all linked to each of us. The first effect is that the pattern of the city is changing and that the new house and the second-hand room will become normal. When we used to talk about buying houses, we basically looked at the new ones, and the growing share of second-hand houses now suggests that the market is slowly moving from an “enrichment age” to an “inventory age”, a sign of mature markets. For us in general, there will be more options for buying a house in the future, so that the market for second-hand houses will be more dynamic and that housing resources will be better mobile。
The second effect is that housing prices will become more and more “diverse” and that there will no longer be the kind of country-wide game that has either gone up or down. Occo has also stated that regional market trends have now become fragmented, with cities rising and cities falling. Inflows of people into core cities with a good industrial base, such as those in the north, where demand is strong, housing prices are likely to remain stable and even high-quality housing sources are likely to rise slightly; and cities with large outflows and large stocks may need to digest stocks by “price-for-money” and very little improvement in housing prices. This division is a good thing, so that housing prices can truly reflect local market demand, rather than being blind to the wind。
The third effect is to force developers to transform and more “good houses” will emerge later. While developers used to make money by taking land on a large scale, building houses and selling houses, the market for new houses is becoming increasingly competitive and quality-oriented. Occo says that there is still room for high-quality real estate development, and that it is actually leading developers from “sizing” to “quality” by building green, intelligent and ageing houses. In the future, the new housing units, which are poor, poorly equipped and of low quality, will become increasingly difficult to sell, and the quality of the housing supply, which truly meets the needs of the population, will become more popular. This is absolutely good news for the people we want to buy a house。
Finally, i say that my personal point of view may be a little sharp, but it's all my real feeling based on reality. First of all, i think that the central message of this finance office is not “sustain” but “stable”. When people heard the official mention of real estate, they felt they were trying to stimulate an increase in the price of housing, which was not the case. The current policy orientation is to allow the real estate market to become rational and “residential” rather than becoming a tool for speculation. The 45 per cent share of second-hand homes is a sign that the market is becoming more mature, that the buying of houses is becoming more rational, that it is no longer blindly seeking new houses, and that it is more focused on whether the house itself meets the housing needs。
Secondly, i would like to say that the “shrimp in house prices” does not mean that house prices are going up, and it is important not to be misunderstood. There are many who are looking forward to a sharp fall in housing prices, or to a sharp rise in housing prices. A sharp drop in housing prices will affect overall economic stability and harm ordinary people who have already bought them, while a sharp rise in housing prices will only make it more difficult to afford and exacerbate social tensions. Thus, the future housing prices are probably “stablely smooth”, with a steady rise in the core cities, a steady drop in the three or four-line cities and a steady overall stabilization. Those who want to make a fortune out of housework should give up the idea sooner rather than later。
And the other idea is that we look at the market and stop staring at the new house data, and the second-hand room data are more reflective of the real market. Many people used to analyze the city, depending on how much it sold and how much it went up, which is already one-sided. The fact that the share of second-hand houses is now almost half that means that the flow of stock houses is the core dynamic of the market. It will be important to determine whether a city's buildings are good, not just the market for new houses, but whether second-hand houses can be sold successfully and at a reasonable price. It also reminds us of the need to pay more attention to local population movements and industrial development in future purchases, whether new or second-hand, which are fundamental factors in determining long-term housing price trends, rather than listening to so-called “experts' predictions” of “intellectual information”。
I would like to conclude by saying that the real estate market adjustment is, for us in general, an opportunity to get the market back to rationality and housing. In the past, when the city had gone crazy, many people had been horrified to buy houses and had spent a lot of money on unsatisfactory houses, even because the firehouses were heavily indebted. Now that the market is stable, housing prices are rising and falling, we have more time to choose, more energy to consider whether the house is really fit for ourselves, rather than being pushed away by market sentiment。
On the whole, the sound of oco sent us a clear signal: the market is moving in a healthy and rational direction, and housing demand is the central driving force of the future real estate market. The 45 per cent share of second-hand homes is not the end, but the beginning of a new beginning, when a real estate market truly serves the housing needs of ordinary people. It was to be hoped that everyone would be able to take a rational view of the changes in the market and find a way of living that was suitable for themselves without anxiety or blindness。
