Over the past two decades, there have been more “stable and safe” investments than houses. The answer is no. According to data from the department of statistics, in the last two decades the national housing price has fallen in only three years and the national average has increased almost fivefold. Specifically, first-line cities have increased by an average of 20-30 times; second-line cities have generally increased by more than 15 times; and even in many less developed three- and four-line cities, housing prices have increased by an average of 8 to 10 per cent annually。
In a word, over the past two decades, the investment properties of the house have been widening, crushing the return on many of the phenomenon-class investments. For those with vested interests such as homeowners, developers, banks, locals, etc., the price of the house is soaring, and it is harmless. In contrast, many people who have not bought their homes are in dire need — savings in their hands would not have been enough to pay for the first payment of a single house, and the increase in wages has been driven away by increases in housing prices, leaving even less hope for future purchases。
Even for those who had just to buy a house in their car, their wallets were “empty” at higher house prices. Moreover, the mortgage-purchase model has advanced most of the wage earnings of many people in the next two or three decades。
It is true that housing prices remain high, and it is true that hundreds of millions of ordinary people just have to buy them. "there's no room in the world that can be bought." it goes without saying that even in many three-and-a-half-way cities, the price of a house has risen to the “thousand-dollar threshold” where ordinary people buy a house that requires at least $4. 5 million in cash. In addition, many young people are beginning to enter a “low-spiriting society” early on, not buying houses, not falling in love, not marrying, not having children. Even worse, there are high housing prices and aversion to real estate。
Even so, there are many urban experts and property experts who threaten that at least 200 million rural people will enter the city in the future, that china will have an urbanization rate of 15-20 years away from developed countries, that real estate will have at least 15 years of dividends and that housing prices will continue to rise for at least another 15 years. More frankly, property experts say that in the next 20 years housing prices will be 4-7 times higher than currently. The largest increase continues to be in mega-cities with a growing influx of people. The expert's voice is that those who do not want to buy a house must act quickly and that the purchase of a house must be crowded in large cities with a large population. In addition, it is worth mentioning that, in the recent past, the lady of finance and economics yen has stated that in the future, the annual increase in house prices will remain at 6 per cent。
For the time being, we have not been able to prove the right or the wrong thing. However, in the light of the current attitude of the state towards real estate, the further moves of the major cities, the sale of investment in rent-free tenants, and the recent pessimism of the developers, it is clear that the city is moving in the opposite direction as the experts predicted。
First, the attitude of the state towards real estate: more pressure than support determines the likelihood of falling overall housing prices in the future. Far from saying that, in the past august alone, the country had held three high-profile meetings, not only reiterating the arguments of “inhabitance and fire”, “maintenance” and “no stabbing”, but also formally embarking on an appropriate tightening of housing financing。
We believe that the signal is clear: the first is that the market heat is not allowed, that the cities that have been experiencing a rapid increase in housing prices since the first half of this year have, without exception, tightened their regulation, and that the prices of many cities should then fall. As can be seen, the state's position on “price control” remains firm; and the second is that strict regulation will be the dominant melody of future city regulation, and the contours of long-lasting housing mechanisms are becoming clearer. Third, the state's “stabbing” of high-debt, high-risk housing companies presages the entry of real estate into the “risk management” phase of precision control, which is conducive to the overall steady growth of the industry, the reduction of high housing prices and the purchase of millions of new homes。
Secondly, the golden age of investment in the building had ended, the investment had been strewn, and the “show-outs” had come. The real estate man, feng long, said that the time had passed when the house had been bought behind closed eyes for money, and that more and more people had found that it was no longer rich. This is a good explanation why, since april of this year, “shows” have been launched in two large cities, all of which have been voting with their feet, with a four-fold increase in the number of registrations for the month of april-july, and up to 120,000 shell platforms in hangzhou, two times higher than in the same period last year; nanjing, hoi fat, qingdao, changsha, jungzhou, etc., have not only fallen, but have been “down” prices。
In conclusion, the coming of a wave of sales confirmed the end of the golden age of market investment and bodes well for a new development cycle of chinese real estate, with future increases in both the price of housing and the rate of real estate investment becoming more rational。
Thirdly, the developers are also beginning to be collectively pessimistic, with a huge amount of information. With the successive updates of the annual newspaper by major housing companies, seniors have expressed their views on the back market in public and, while there are still a lot of developers who “strengthen” the prices of housing and real estate, it has to be acknowledged that pessimism is beginning to spread among the group of developers。
The first pessimism of sun hong bin, the master of integration, states that “it is time for the greatest risks in the land market, when the developers have the money, the people have the money, the land is expensive and the price of the house is high”. In addition to sun hongbin's words, it is true that this year's building is not well received。
The chairman of the xuhui group said more frankly, “the bitter days are indeed coming and housing companies are aware of the crisis. At the same time, it is important to recognize the power, to regulate that there is no possibility of untiement in the short term, and to sell without a return or profit is to be a hooligan.”
Kim mao li said from retang that, in fact, he had tightened his belt for two years. Over the past two years, the leveraging of the kimblei has fallen by 5 per cent, as a result of our early action. In the future, we will continue to improve and gradually control our liabilities against the backdrop of a difficult environment。
We have said more than once that pre-marketing depends not on what economists, housing experts say, but on what developers with direct contact with front-line markets say and do. Their actions do not deceive anyone, and are the most true reflection of the good and bad of the market。
Developers have sent important signals: since this year, a number of bosses have collectively expressed pessimism, and the first half of the year’s sales performance has been less than ideal, and the reduction of indebtedness and sales pressure has been a sword hanging over the developers, which determines the future market, presumably dominated by the “active sale” of housing companies。
Developmentists have shown pessimism, but it is not impossible to trace: on the one hand, the debt overhang, a study by china’s gold company, shows that real estate domestic debt, dollar debt, trust maturity in 2020 exceeded 1. 5 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 10 per cent over 2019, with single-month bond maturities in the country exceeding 70 billion yuan between august and september, and has since fallen slightly but remained high; on the other hand, the “red line” of housing finance has fallen, with a housing stock in the “red line” with a net debt ratio of more than 150 per cent in 2019。
The investors sold in an emergency, and the housing firms showed the bottom card of the “lower return”, which undoubtedly means that this time the high house price may be “failed” – the investors are selling, opening the way for the “lower house,” and the developers are joining the “lower price war” to continue the fall。
How much will the house price fall next year? The developer revealed the bottom line
As a demand for home ownership, you may not care whether the housing company is under pressure, whether the investors have opened up the market, or whether they are on their own to buy the house, and more about how much it will fall next year。
To be honest, it is difficult to answer this question, and it may ultimately be disappointing – next year, in the less developed three- and four-line cities, housing prices will probably return, especially in cities far from the front line, and far from the country’s priorities. According to the bottom line revealed by the developers, next year’s rate may be between 5 and 10 per cent. However, it was not excluded that very few projects that were difficult to decipher and to pay back would have a negative impact on the sale of the floors. At this stage, the bottom line is 30 per cent for developers, based on the promotion of local developers in the towns, chaoqing and cheng city。
However, in terms of urbanization, currency distribution, inflation and so on, it is difficult to reduce housing prices in the cities of the three main categories of cities that the country will focus on. Even though we can be sure that the next step will be to sell the houses at reduced discounts, overall, the vast majority of the houses in these cities are still hard to fall. Unlike the three-and-a-half-line cities, which are characterized by a marked “triple zero”, housing prices are strongly supported, with large demand for housing, a market situation where demand is smaller than demand, and the economic and financial industries, among other fundamentals, making housing prices strong。
However, nothing is absolute, and if an accident occurs, the fall in the price of the house is bound to stop. In fact, in the past two years, local housing prices, such as those in yan's suburbs around the capital, have fallen. So what is the bottom line of the decline if we leave all the theories behind and have a bold analysis to predict if the price of the house is allowed to fall next year
In fact, the bottom line of the decline in the price of housing has long been revealed by the land owner, pan shih and sun hongbin. According to pan sheng, 20 per cent of the decline in housing prices is the bottom line, and if the fall in housing prices goes beyond that threshold, so many of the real estate developers will face a bankruptcy crisis; sun hong bin, to be blunt, says that the overall stability of the real estate sector is welcome by every developer, and it is important that housing prices remain reasonably stable, and that if housing prices fall by 30 per cent, all developers may no longer exist。
