Guidelines for controlling price fluctuations and farm costs of feed raw materials: analysis of trends in the maize, bean, fish and fish markets
Analysis of industry background and price fluctuations
The global market for feed raw materials experienced severe shocks, with ministry of agriculture and rural data showing price fluctuations of more than 45 per cent per year for the three main staples of maize, soybean and fish powder during the first three quarters. This abnormality is largely influenced by multiple factors: on the international front, the russian-ukrainian conflict continues to trigger the restructuring of the global food supply chain, and the drought in the mid-western part of the united states has led to a 12 per cent reduction in the expected single-production of maize; and on the domestic front, environmental production-limit policy escalation, import tariff adjustment and energy price volatility are under triple pressure. The latest report of the chinese association of feed industries indicates that the average price of bean bean bean bean imports has now exceeded 4800 yuan/t, an increase of 28. 6 per cent over the same period, and that this structural fluctuation is reshaping the cost-control logic of farming enterprises。
The depth of the core material market
1. Corn price trends and procurement strategies
Domestic maize prices in the second quarter were characterized by a "v-type invert" surge from a minimum of $1850 per ton in april to $2,400 per ton in july, an increase of 29. 2 per cent. The main reasons include the increase in the start-up rate of deep processing enterprises in the north-east to 82 per cent (67 per cent), the early pace of the replenishment of feed enterprises in the south and the stabilization of the auction market to over 78 per cent. It is recommended that farming enterprises adopt a "short purchase + futures hedge" strategy, which may be consulted:
- procurement cycle: 3 procurements per quarter, 30 per cent each
- futures locking: 30 per cent of purchases using zheng's corn futures contract
- selection of varieties: 60% of yellow corn + 30% of blue corn + 10% of corn
2. Structural changes in the soya market
Global soybean production is projected to be revised downwards to 155 million tons (usda data), contributing to the continued rise in the price of imported soybeans. Current imports decreased by 123,000 tonnes per week, but the domestic stock consumption ratio fell to 16. 7% (18% on alert). The market has two new features:
- varieties segmentation: the share of high protein (42 per cent) is 78 per cent and the market share of low protein is 22 per cent
- direct extraction: over 60 per cent of large feed enterprises have established direct mining systems in south america, reducing logistics costs by 18-25 per cent
A typical example: a head feed enterprise has worked together through the soybean plantation in brazil to reduce the cost per ton of soybean to port by $320。
3. Fishmeal price volatility and alternatives
Peru cod catch was reduced by 35 per cent each year, pushing the price of fish powder to exceed 21,000 yuan/t (16,000 yuan/t). Markets are accelerating the transition to plant protein, as shown by:
- alternative application: increase of seedlings to 15% (8%)
- aquatic feed formulation: increase in plant protein to 28% (25% eu standard)
- new material development: 47 per cent increase in microbial protein powder (mp) usage over the same period
Four core strategies for farming cost control
A "3+2" formula adjustment mechanism is proposed:
- weekly monitoring of raw materials price volatility index
- monthly updating of nutritional parameters standards
- quarterly full cost accounting
- biannual assessment of the applicability of alternative feedstocks
- annual upgrading of the smart formula
2. Inventory management smart model
Create a 3d stockpile control system:
- time dimension: 15-day secure inventory + 30-day reconciliation inventory
- space dimension: regionalized storage layout (three sub-silos in the main production area)
- varieties dimensions: establishment of feedstock correlation matrix (0. 72)
Through the model, an enterprise's stock turnover rate was raised to 6. 8 per year (industry average 5. 2 times)。
Accounting for carbon emissions
According to the ndc carbon pricing mechanism, the price of carbon in the feed industry is estimated at $80/t co2. Recommendation implemented:
- biomass energy use: adding 10% of the barley protein powder reduces carbon emissions by 1. 2 tonnes/ton feed
- smart monitoring system: 200 + carbon emission monitoring points installed, data uploading and monitoring platform in real time
4. Supply chain financial innovation applications
Mainstream financial institutions have introduced customized services:
- price index insurance: risk of falling to cover maize, soybean prices
- warehouse receipt pledge financing: a single maximum of $50 million
- factoring of accounts receivable: cost of financing reduced to 3. 8 per cent per year
By combining these financial instruments, a feeder enterprise reduced its annual financing cost by 6. 2 million yuan。
Future market trends forecast
1. Predicated price movements
- corn: imports are expected to shrink to 110 million tons (128 million tons)
- beans: soybean production in south america or 170 million tons (+10 per cent)
- fish powder: peru recovered to 6 million tons (4. 2 million tons)
2. Directions for technological innovation
- 3d print feed particles: error rate
- genetically edited feed: 20-25% increase in animal growth
3. Policy adjustment elements
- upgrading environmental standards: starting a new feed plant with dust emission limit reduced to 10 mg/m3
- import tariff adjustment: 5 per cent anti-dumping duty on brazilian beans
- tax incentives: increase r & d costs plus deductions to 150%
Guidelines for controlling price fluctuations and farm costs of feed raw materials: analysis of trends in the maize, bean, fish and fish markets
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