| maximum price per ton per year
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| styrene 2. 85 | 1. 75 | 62. 9 |
Pvc 1. 92 1. 38 38. 6
Ethylene, ethylene, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl, ethyl
| mdi 2. 98 | 1. 70 | 74. 7 |
Core impact factors
2. 1 reconstruction of supply and demand base
Domestic ethylene capacity exceeded 28 million tons per year, with coal-based ethanol production increasing by 34 per cent over the same period, leading to price pressures on products from traditional oil routes. The downstream demand end is structurally fragmented: demand for pvcs declined by 12 per cent for cars, but demand for membrane materials for new energy cells surged by 45 per cent to form alternative demand growth points。
2. 2 cost-end support changes
(analysis of changes in cost composition)
- crude oil prices: brent crude oil averaged $82 per barrel per quarter (+18 per cent)
- coal prices: average of 5,500 kilocalories per ton of power coal (+9. 2 per cent)
- lpg: import-to-cif $145 per ton (per year + 23%)
- electricity price: industrial electricity price $0. 65/kwh (+5% per year)
Combined costs rose from 58 per cent to 63 per cent, with energy costs reaching 41 per cent, up from nearly five years。
2. 3 policy regulation enhancements
The ministry of ecology has implemented a "two-controlled" upgrading programme to control total production of 27 categories of chemical products such as mdi and tdi, with enterprises in priority controlled areas limiting production to 30 to 50 per cent. According to data from the general customs administration, the import of ethanol decreased by 28 per cent in the first half of the year, and the rate of construction of domestic installations rose to 85. 6 per cent (78. 3 per cent)。
Iii. Market projections and trends
3. 1 short term (q4)
Driven by winter reserves, prices for varieties such as styrene and pvc are expected to rebound by 5-8 per cent. There is, however, a need to be alert to the pressure of the us dollar expected from the us federal reserve interest rate hike, which could discourage international imports of raw materials. It is recommended that enterprises establish rolling stock models for 3-6 months。
3. 2 medium term()
In the context of the deepening of the "bicarbon" policy, the proportion of coal-chemical routes is expected to rise from the current 35 per cent to 45 per cent, and the price hub for ethylene crackers may move down 10 to 15 per cent. It is recommended that downstream enterprises accelerate the development of alternative technologies for bio-based raw materials。
3. 3 long-term (-2030)
According to icis, the global ethanol production capacity gap will increase from 3 million tons per year to 8 million tons per year by 2030, and the commercialization of bio-based ethanol technologies will reshape market patterns. It is recommended that green materials be developed in advance。
4. 1 dynamic hedge mechanisms
A combination of "in-kind + futures" strategies has been developed, with reference to the "push tool for raw materials price indices" launched by the chemical network, with a 50-70 per cent monthly roll-on of futures when price fluctuations exceed 20 per cent。
4. 2 diversification of supply chains
Focusing on monitoring emerging supply bases in the middle east, south-east asia, such as the saudi sabic ethanol project (in production), and the pertamina coal chemical base in indonesia (in production), it is proposed to increase overseas procurement from the current 15 per cent to 25 per cent。
4. 3 stock management model
Risk warning and response measures
5. 1 main risk points
- excessive energy price fluctuations (probability 35 per cent, impact 80 per cent)
- environmental policy plus (probability 40%, impact 70%)
- geopolitical conflicts (25% probability, 60% impact)
5. 2 risk management matrix
Risk level risk level response strategy cost ratio
| - | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Level i risk establishment of a strategic reserve fund (5-8 per cent annual) 3. 2 per cent 1-3 years
Level 2 risk diversity of supplier development (3 or more) 1. 8% june-december
Level 3 risks upgrade of environmental facilities (outputs: 1. 4. 5) 2. 5%
Vi. Visualization of industry data
(figure 1: price volatility curves of major chemical materials)
(figure 2: cost composition change radar)
(table 3: comparison of price indices for priority regions)
(note: the data are derived from the chemical network information monitoring system, the chinese chemical association and third-party research institutions, with some projections validated by the monte carlo simulation and over 85% confidence)
The depth of price volatility of chemical raw materials: market trends and procurement strategies - report of the chemical network authority industry
The depth of price volatility of chemical raw materials: market trends and procurement strategies - report of the chemical network authority industry
