In recent days, numerous scientific institutions and scientists around the world have predicted that the earth will be experiencing a very strong el niño phenomenon later this year and that temperatures will rise to new heights this year and next summer。
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The new climate data released by the european center for medium-term weather forecasts indicate that the earth may experience a strong el niño phenomenon later this year, or even a super el niño phenomenon, the intensity of which may be similar to that of the strongest el niño phenomenon in history。
The latest projections released on 7 march by the national oceanic and atmospheric administration of the united states of america's key seasonal climate prediction system indicate that the intensity of the el niño phenomenon will increase this year, in line with the european center for medium-term weather forecasts。
Daniel swing, a climate scientist at the college of agriculture and natural resources of the university of california, wrote on social media: “home. All indications are increasingly that the el niño phenomenon will be very significant and possibly even very strong.”
According to the united states meteorologist ben norr, according to the new model of the european medium-term weather forecast centre, the probability of a regional “super el niño” phenomenon was 22 per cent in august and 80 per cent of a “strong” el niño phenomenon. This year's el niño phenomenon, especially the el niño phenomenon, is likely to push global temperatures to their highest levels in history, with a greater likelihood of their highest temperatures in 2027。
El niño is a climate event of abnormally high sea temperature in the central and eastern equatorial pacific, usually occurring every few years. It affects global atmospheric circulation, alters precipitation and temperature distribution and triggers extreme weather events such as droughts, high temperatures or floods in some regions. El niño is of great importance to agricultural production, energy supply and disaster prevention and mitigation because of its wide-ranging and long-term impact, and is therefore of great interest to national meteorological services and the public。
The strongest el niño phenomenon, on the other hand, tends to lead to record peak temperatures in the coming year, as heat is released from the oceans, spreads to tropical areas in the pacific ocean and redistributes to global locations。
According to eric weber, a meteorologist in the united states department of defense, the el niño phenomenon is usually reflected in a rise in global temperatures. Owing to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the climate system could not effectively consume the heat released from the last el niño event until the next el niño had arrived and the temperature baseline had been pushed again. Thus, the el niño super el niño phenomenon in 2026-2027 will have a greater impact on temperature than other el niño phenomena in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016。
In addition to higher temperatures, the el niño event could lead to more typhoons in the western pacific, drought in australia, indonesia, parts of east africa and the caribbean islands, and heavy rains in peru, ecuador and hawaii. Countries in africa and the middle east may suffer from extreme temperatures and high humidity。
