At a forum, mr. Barnsson, speaking about the role of post-doctoral and research workers in commercial banks, referred to the novelty of saying that one of the missions of “intellectuals” such as post-doctorates in business was to counter intergenerational oblivion by studying the history, lessons learned, experiences and theoretical systems of business development, so that business could not forget its scars when it flourished, but rather to continue to “do the right thing” and the beginning of transformational change. This is a very powerful statement for me, and i wonder how intellectuals and researchers of social sciences, including economists, might not be so effective for a society and a state
As they say, forgetting history amounts to betrayal. The ancient historians were highly independent, high in rank and culture, and were responsible for recording the actions of those in power, or for keeping their name or stench for years, serving as a catalyst and a wake-up call and a constraint on the monarchy. For those who come later, it is also not so important that the loss or the loss of honour at the time is not so important that those who come back learn the lessons of history as a cognitive resource. As stated in "the house of the houses" , "the latter shall not forget, nor shall the latter." the importance of historical memory can be seen in the country's social fabric, the prosperity of society and the sustainable development of enterprises。
Hegel said that the biggest lesson of history was that it had not been learned. People are used to remember the pain, even if “a snake bites, 10 years fear of the well rope” is a decade of fear of the “well rope” and may continue to make mistakes after 10 years. But i have not fully agreed with this historical oblivion. Because human civilization has always progressed, and while it seems that many tragedies of history are repeated, they are not entirely repeated, and they are much more in form and content than previous civilizations. Why? I think there are two main reasons:
First, on the surface, it seems forgotten, but in fact much of the pain is deposited into the collective subconscious or the tissue gene of society. Jung said that collective unconsciousness was the destiny of a people. Historic memory had shaped the fate of the land unconsciously, and no snowflake was innocent。
Secondly, there are intellectuals' records, writings and narratives, and although, in many cases, “modern history is a broken history”, the veins are always broken. Individual intellectuals, such as writers, sociologists, historians and others, who speak only one word or think in pieces, are likely to complete a complete puzzle of the course of history at that time. And, of course, history is not written exclusively by intellectuals, and there are still some fragments of the history of popular mouths and stories. So the phrase “history is written by the people” makes sense, and of course you can say, “history is a little girl who lets those who succeed dress up”, but things are not easy to reverse。
Based on that conviction, i am neither an optimist nor a pessimist, but a neutral progressive. This stems from my belief that humanity will provide the right feedback and action on the painful lessons. “a snake bite, fearing the well rope for 10 years” may be followed by new lessons. For the first time in the history of mankind, a stable international order was established just after two world wars and the humanitarian catastrophe of the massacre of six million jews in world war ii. Including the united nations, gatt, imf, the world bank, and various peace organizations. These civilizational achievements have been traded for a tragic human catastrophe. The most important characteristic of the difference between humans and animals is the creation of an error-correcting learning curve from lessons learned。
As an economics researcher, i am precisely a cautious (short-term pessimism) progressive. From the point of view of economic rationality, human beings are supposed to be better off to forget, which is also their instinct, or else they will be crushed by the growing multiplicity of memories, or overstretched by the “residency” of the brain. So in everyday life we often see a phenomenon in which people who forget are more likely to be happy. The collective oblivion of a nation, nation and society is the result of the convergence of the forgotten instincts of each individual. Once collectively well forgotten, the mistakes made in the course of history are likely to be repeated, so that the curse of the booming cycle will not escape, and will remain in place and locked in a long-term trap of economic poverty, social disorder and institutional backwardness that cannot leap to modern civilization。
In this context, scholars and researchers in the social humanities bear the burden of documenting historical facts, writing sad stories, analysing crises and reflecting on wounds in order to confront intergenerational oblivion and advance the process of civilization. For economists, there is a need to document economic history in two ways, provide living policy advice for the present and the future, and avoid low-level mistakes that should not be made. The first is to draw lessons and lessons from the economic history of other countries, which are critical for the emerging economies of the latter and are unique advantages for developing countries such as china。
After the subprime crisis, china organized a comparison of the two major crises, drawing lessons from the causes of the united states economic crisis and how to respond to it, and laying down the basic theoretical foundations and operational logic of the supply side of structural reform and risk-proofing. It is clear that china has also drawn lessons from the collapse of the japanese real estate bubble in the process of managing the biggest grey rhinoceros. It can be said that china's greatest advantage in managing the economic and financial crisis is that there is a precedent to be drawn from in terms of both “crossing the united states” and “crossing japan”. However, in view of the current situation in china's real estate, local debt and capital markets, in addition to lessons learned from the united states and japan, we would like to draw on some of their experiences in confronting the financial crisis. For example, a more flexible and efficient monetary and fiscal policy system, rich in innovative balance sheet policies and yield curve management models, particularly understanding and grasping the modern concept of “group immunity” for financial risk。
The second is to draw lessons and lessons from its own history, and to be sure that the mistakes made cannot be repeated. For example, china’s 30-year history has shown that the planned economy is not adapted to productive development, or may be adapted only to the post-war reconstruction period immediately after the establishment of the new china, but that the planned economy will not adapt as the economy develops. Historical facts have also shown that during the decades of the planned economy, china's economy was regressive and, in the end, the national economy was even on the brink of “crash”. It was at the cost of decades without development or even regression and collapse that we were told the truth: china's only way of stable development was through a market economy. This is the most valuable historical resource for china's economic development to date and the social consensus that has been forged at great cost. This consensus must ensure that it remains forever in the historical memory of the chinese, otherwise it will once again be a major mistake. How to continue this consensus and allow young people who have not experienced the parallels of reform and openness to inherit it will require economists to conduct research and analysis and to develop narratives to counter intergenerational oblivion, otherwise “news will be lost and others will be brought back”。
Indeed, the two historical resolutions of the reform and opening up party also define the socialist market economy as the basic system of the chinese economy. These two official governing documents have confronted intergenerational oblivion, and the current level of development and complexity of the chinese economy determines the basic system that is unlikely to leave the market economy. For economists, however, there was a need to recognize that market economies were not perfect, that they needed to be underpinned by rule of law and modern governance structures and that they needed to be kept open to the outside world; and that market economies were inherently unstable and the economic cycle was inevitable。
The current problems in the developed market economies, such as persistent high inflation and unstable financial market systems, are also numerous, pointing to the shortcomings of the market economy. There is no perfect economic system and system of governance, but only a mechanism of correction that constantly upgrades the lessons learned from history. What economists do, besides analysing the present and judging the future, is to deal honestly with history to counter intergenerational oblivion. In the current turbulent times of troubled times, it is no longer true who has achieved much more than it has been, but who has made fewer mistakes, especially low-level mistakes that have already been made。
