In the domestic diesel market, as a result of the adjustment of finished oil to a 10-day cycle, taking into account changes in crude oil, the domestic diesel price was adjusted twice in september. On 9 september 2025 and 23 september, the price increase for imported diesel was less than $50 per ton. This month, the finished oil showed a steady rundown. However, as a result of the new cycle, the price of oil began to rise sharply, the second half of the year saw a decline in diesel fuel by $75 per ton, the new cycle experienced a full increase and the second half of the year saw a recovery in oil prices, as follows:
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According to the information received, domestic oil prices were “higher and lower” in the first half of 2025, diesel fuel was “four down and two down”, oil price statistics were down $330 and $315 per ton! In the second half of the year, in july-september 2025, the domestic diesel price was adjusted seven times, with the market showing a “two down and four down”, of which, for almost three months, oil prices were “one down and one down” and after a discount, diesel was reduced by $75 per ton! By the end of september, the price of oil had fallen seven times, six times and six times after the first 19 price increases, the price of oil had fallen by $405 and $390 per ton, and the price of gasoline 92/95 had fallen by over $0. 32 per litre
Now, in the second half of the year, the third quarter is at its end, and in the last three months, the domestic diesel fuel price has been adjusted seven times, showing a “two down and one up”, and oil price statistics have fallen by $75! However, entering the new cycle, the first price adjustment was made in the fourth quarter, at 2400 hours on 13 october, and three working days before the completion of the current cycle, the price of oil had risen above the quarterly reduction of $75 per ton in the third quarter, if the increase had fallen, if the price of oil had risen in the third quarter or had returned altogether, and if domestic oil prices had reached a new peak or reached a new phase
According to the data, as of 27 september 2025, today, the twentieth adjustment in 2025, the first three working days before the completion of the current cycle, is based on the day's weekend break and domestic diesel price increases are at yesterday's level! According to the data, yesterday, referring to the narrow international oil price shock of 25 september, the average price of crude oil was $66. 62 per barrel for the first three working days of the current cycle, with a crude oil rate of 2. 19 per cent, an increase of $120 per ton in domestic diesel fuel, a conversion price increase, petrol 92/95 and diesel 0, an increase of about $0. 11
This oil price rise will also wipe out the july-september oil price decline and the cost of cars used by residents or further increases! At present, however, the new cycle is three working days in advance, and oil price adjustments remain uncertain. While the risk of this increase in diesel fuel has increased dramatically, there is a gap in the market for phase-out crude oil as domestic price increases are guided by changes in crude oil
On the one hand, russia faces the risk of secondary sanctions as a result of the damage to part of its energy facilities and the decline in its energy export levels following the russian-uu conflict, and because of pressure from the west and the united states, which underpins the crude oil market
On the other hand, while the fed's interest-rate channel has been activated, the dollar is expected to recede and energy demand is expected to rise! However, due to poor economic data from the united states and the end of the summer energy season, market concerns remain about weak crude oil consumption
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Thus, based on multiple market factors, individual analysis, 20th price adjustment in 2025, with a higher probability of an increase in oil prices if crude oil prices continue to increase, diesel fuel increases or further expand! From the analysis of the data, there was a reversal of crude oil during the night of 26 september, an increase of $0. 71 to $0. 74/barrel in wti crude oil and oil sheeting, which was revalued, and a personal estimate that the domestic average price of crude oil would rise to $66. 95/barrel for the following working day, and that the rate of change in crude oil would rise to 2. 7 per cent, and that the price of diesel oil would rise or reach 160 to $180/ton
However, due to the longer price-reducing cycle, the opportunity for the crude oil market to rush back and down, the final orientation of oil prices is uncertain, and the pen will keep track of changes in the market. A new round of diesel fuel will be adjusted on 13 october, hopefully the increase will drop
This is the end of the paper, thank you for reading。
