Researchers at the financial research institute of the chinese institute of social sciences considered the real estate market to be a capital-intensive industry dominated by speculation. If the renminbi depreciates and leads to an expected reversal, investors either exit the market or no longer have easy access to the housing market. He stated that the continued devaluation of the renminbi would lead not only to an earlier influx of capital from abroad out of china, or to a reluctance to enter the chinese market easily, but also to a fall in the price of housing assets in china。
Starting in the second half of last year, li ka-sheng registered to sell properties located in shanghai, guangzhou and elsewhere, and looked to europe. According to analysts, this move by li ka-sheng took place shortly after the fed announced its withdrawal from qe. In addition to a lack of interest in the economic situation in the interior, there is also a perception of the direction of the building and changes in the exchange rate。
At the same time, it also stressed that once the expectations of continued appreciation of the renminbi were broken, the population would also lose its assets. In particular, the domestic population is either no longer willing to enter the real estate market, or is likely to hold less of its holdings of housing assets denominated in renminbi。
Thus, in terms of asset value, the devaluation of the renminbi will undoubtedly have an impact on real estate. According to kerry's analysis, the scope of the shock would include the prices of assets denominated in renminbi, such as large commodities, real estate markets and even stock markets, represented by industrial goods. The agency also stressed that the gains from hot money investment in the real estate market would be reduced, together with the real estate market’s own adjustment, and that the “hot money” that pursued the high returns might be withdrawn as a result, thereby curbing the rise in housing prices。
First-line urban housing price
Since the introduction of the real estate market reform in 1998, the city has experienced several shocks from the devaluation of the renminbi. However, in combination with developments in the real estate market, the coldness of the building market is not directly related to exchange rate fluctuations. In 2011, the real estate market rose significantly, without any impact, on the devaluation of the renminbi。
According to analysts, there are more factors that influence the dynamics of the real estate market, the most important of which is the relationship between money delivery and market supply and demand. Among them, the former is positively related to the market movement, while the latter determines the degree of market volatility. In addition, real estate regulation policies have largely influenced market trends. In contrast, exchange rate fluctuations are only a minor factor affecting the city。
It is worth noting, however, that, as an air-friendly factor, the devaluation of the renminbi has little impact when the market is better; however, when the real estate market is in its lower cycle, the effect of the devaluation cannot be ignored. And the market expects the renminbi to depreciate or remain in existence for some time。
According to zhang david, the current real estate market is in its next cycle. Data from 2014 indicate that the increase in sales data for major urban markets has slowed. Overall, china's real estate market will become more polarized in 2014 and beyond, and the trend towards adjustment will become more pronounced, with most of the 3rd and 4th-line cities experiencing oversupply, with very high pressure on falling housing prices and possibly adjustments in the 1st and 2nd-line cities。
In addition to the increased risk in cities on the 3rd and 4th line, there have been price reductions in part of the first and second line of urban buildings. Some housing enterprises suffer from poor sales and financial chains, and individual enterprises in zhejiang even face defaults。
In this context, zhang daewei argued that the withdrawal of the qe of the fed and the devaluation of the renminbi had a negative impact on china's real estate market. The scale of substantial overseas financing will create a strain on the finance chain for housing enterprises and may even be subject to default. At the same time, when the dollar grows stronger, hot money will flow out of the chinese market, which will exacerbate the “money deficit” of real-estate enterprises, and the real-estate market will face a decline that may harm the chinese economy。
Analysts also stressed that cities with a concentration of hot money were more affected than cities with a higher supply than demand. “when the renminbi continues to depreciate, hot money will flow out, putting housing prices in the front-line cities under pressure. Since 2005, the renminbi has been appreciating for many years and house prices have been rising, and these speculative funds, which profit greatly, may be willing to withdraw at lower prices.”
