Xinhua beijing 10 january question: 2026, three middle east hotspot perspectives
The crown prince of xinhua news agency
In 2026, the middle east region is moving forward in the midst of a combination of challenges and opportunities。
The situation in iranWhere to? Can the fighting in gaza be completely extinguished? How will the risk of conflict evolve in hotspots such as syria, the sudan and yemen? These three flashpoints collectively outline the key threads for the development of the situation in the middle east in the new year。
The situation in iran: internal and external distress
In the recent past, large-scale demonstrations have erupted in iran due to rising prices and currency devaluations, spreading to many places and causing casualties. The supreme leader of iran, khamenei, made a national television speech on 9 september, calling on the iranian people to remain united. Analysts believe that iran faces a triple challenge with internal and external pressures, and that the direction of its situation will be an important variable in shaping the middle east landscape。
On 4 november 2025, people attended an anti-american anti-israeli rally in tehran, the capital of iran. Xinhua
First, the iranian economy is under heavy pressure. Since the unilateral withdrawal of the united states from the iranian nuclear deal in 2018, iran has been subjected to multiple rounds of western sanctions, resulting in a devaluation of the currency, severe inflation and a severe economic impact, which has greatly affected the livelihood of the population, which triggered the demonstration。
According to hani jamal, director of the strategic studies office of the egyptian arab research centre, the situation was marked by uncertainty as the policy space of the iraqi government was limited under the double pressure of human life and western sanctions。
Second, there is an increased risk of outside interference. Iranian foreign minister aragzi has recently stated that iran is ready for war in any event. According to ali hassan, the united arab emirates political and economic analyst, the recent united states raid on venezuela would not preclude similar action against iran. At the same time, the two countries worked closely together, and the latter's political changes could also have a negative impact on iran。
At the same time, the possibility of renewed direct conflict between iran and israel cannot be underestimated. According to the turkish arab post, prime minister netanyahu was seeking re-election in the 2026 elections, or by adding political leverage to ishi's power, possibly again targeting iran's critical nuclear facilities。
Thirdly, there has been little progress on the iranian nuclear issue. According to a crucible by a deputy researcher at the middle east institute of the shanghai university of foreign studies, iranian president pizehiziang recently stated that the united states, israel and europe were waging a “comprehensive war” against iraq, which meant that iran's relations with the west would be dominated by confrontation against the backdrop of the collapse of the limitation clause of the iran nuclear agreement and the bleak prospects for a return agreement. According to middle eastern scholars, the iranian nuclear issue will either perpetuate the fragile balance, be less likely to erupt into full-scale war, be less likely to reach a final agreement and be sustained by a multiparty game。
The israeli-palestinian conflict: game under a fragile ceasefire
Although the first phase of the ceasefire in gaza entered into force on 10 october 2025, the prospects for the ceasefire remain uncertain。
The displaced children were photographed in a school in gaza city on 20 june 2025. Xinhua society for social development (rezek abduljaward)
Al-jazeera in qatar reported that israel would remain committed to the core goal of eliminating the palestinian islamic resistance (hamas) and securing security, and would continue its military preparations, while hamas demanded that israel withdraw completely from gaza and recognize palestinian legitimate rights and interests. The fundamental differences between the two sides are difficult to reconcile and tensions will persist。
The inter-palestinian conflict will also be an obstacle to a ceasefire. Mohamed alush, a member of the political bureau of the palestinian front for the struggle, stressed that, in order to achieve genuine reconciliation and lasting peace, hamas and the palestinian national liberation movement (fatah) should have the political will to end internal divisions, but that condition was not yet available。
At the same time, external good offices and key issues are highly variable. According to egyptian scholar jamal, the so-called united states-led peace plan for gaza is structurally flawed, and key issues are vaguely articulated and insufficiently operational. It is argued that any variation in the future status of hamas, the reform of the palestinian authority, the realization of reconstruction funds and the deployment of an international stabilization force could constrain the reconstruction process in gaza。
Multinational scholars have analysed that, if the parties fail to make substantive compromises, the future of gaza may or will continue to fertilize into a long-standing state of confrontation under the playing field。
Multi-point risk: spills in ongoing volatility
Disruption between syria, the sudan and yemen is expected to become a major conflict risk point in the middle east in 2026。
Syria's political transition and security reconstruction are struggling. According to syrian international relations expert mohamed abdel wahid, the syrian situation faces three-pronged challenges: the security situation remains fragile as a result of internal ethnic and political factional fighting; the remnants of the extremist organization islamic state continue to operate in parts of the country in an attempt to take advantage of the chaos to re-emerge; and external forces are or will intensify, with internal and external problems placing the future in doubt。
This is the syrian “general staff” building, which was damaged during an israeli air strike and was shot in damascus on 16 july 2025. Xinhua society for social development (by amar safarjarani)
The civil war in the sudan has triggered a serious humanitarian crisis, and the expansion of the conflict has been accompanied by heightened regional proliferation risks. At present, some 30 million people in the sudan are in dire need of humanitarian assistance and suffer from a combination of food and external aid shortages. Alush believes that the conflict in the sudan will continue to remain frozen in the short term. The situation, if out of control, could further exacerbate refugee flows and security instability in the region。
Yemen has a long history of division, and regional games have made political solutions difficult. Al-jazeera wrote that the conflict in yemen was not just a question of al-houthi, but that the differences between saudi arabia and the united arab emirates had further complicated the situation. Moreover, israel has recently recognized somaliland and attempted to deploy a military presence in the gulf of aden, and the situation in the mande strait between djibouti and yemen is either tense or tense。
Alush believes that many of the conflicts in the middle east stem from internal contradictions, from external intervention and from the interlocking of games, and that the regional situation or chronic instability has led to an intensification of refugee flows, economic deterioration and a rise in the risk of extremism。
