After spring, the price of garlic appeared to have been on a helicopter, and the price of garlic in the main production areas, such as ginjiang, zhongzhou, zhongxiang and zhongzhou, had begun to rise collectively, rising by more than 40 per cent within a month in individual areas, thereby opening up the “flying life” of garlic。
There's evidence of you coming. For garlic farmers in parts of the main production areas, such as henan and shandong, this “winter” has been stretched indefinitely by two cold and freezing rains around the spring season. Under the freeze, the return process of garlic seedlings has been interrupted and has grown less optimistic than in previous years, with many garlic farmers predicting a significant reduction in production。
Strong output reduction expectations, combined with increased short-term exports, have pushed garlic prices into a strong boom cycle. From the pre-spring fall to the post-spring boom, the situation of garlic workers has changed dramatically, or surprises or surprises, and the response has been adjusted -
Storers are losing or losing, partly selling or closing; sellers are beginning to take the initiative, and the downturn before the spring season generally hardened their prices; buyers who are just in need have to lower standard bites to collect their goods and avoid the embarrassment of being free of garlic; and garlic farmers who wander in the fields are constantly calculating how to use this boom as a means of “cutting off the harvest”。
The increase in the amount of garlic has been dramatic, and each short-term round-up has led to a wave of more intense sprints, constantly refreshing higher prices and creating a situation that can rise and fall. So, how much of this year's garlic sprouts are going to last, and journalists have recently made research visits。
It's a sudden freeze
After the spring festival, a daily visit to the ground to see the growth of garlic seedlings became a mandatory job for the king's army flag of garlic farmers in wangzhou, tonhu county, henan province。
“it was at least 40 centimeters of garlic at this time of the year, and it was only 20 centimeters this year. The flag of the royal army is pitiful. Garlic, which is supposed to be green, is now covered in gruesome grubs, and it's scattered. A frozen garlic seed has been pulled out, its roots softened, and it rots with its fingers。
Long before the spring, there was freezing in the pre-spring low-temperature cold rain, and in parts of the garlic leaf there was drying, yellowing and whitening of leaves. After all, it is still too early for the garlic farmers to be too worried and still expect a good harvest。
The rapid return of weather after the spring season triggered the growth of garlic seedlings, but the re-emergence of low-temperature freezing rain was widespread and prolonged, with devastating effects on the early years of recovery and on the seedlings。
As a rule, garlic itself is a cold-resistant plant, generally without fear of snow and can withstand temperatures of about 5°c in the short term. However, the garlic-producing areas encountered two rounds of cold and cold temperatures around the spring festival, lasting almost 20 days, the strongest rain and freezing weather in 15 years in henan, hubei and hunan。
In addition, cold rain comes at a temporary time when garlic seedlings return, and local temperatures around 15°c are far beyond the range of garlic, which has not been encountered in the garlic-producing areas in recent years, not only hindering the growth of garlic seedlings but also causing irreparable damage to their leaves. After the rains, a large number of garlic farmers reflected various degrees of freezing injuries to the garlic leaf。
According to the flag of the wang army, only part of the leaves on the ground at the beginning of the freeze will be frozen, the colour will gradually turn into purple red until the tip of the leaf is dried up, and the disease spreads internally along the edge of the leaf, with almost all the leaves on the ground frozen. When the weather turned clear, frozen leaves dried up and died。
The same freeze occurred eight years ago. At the beginning of the winter and spring of 2016, garlic was hit hard by cold tides and unstable weather, with some parts of the region suffering from more than two thirds of the death rate from garlic, with the average wholesale price of garlic at $11 per kilogram per year, an increase of 88. 6 per cent over the previous year, an increase of 22. 9 per cent over the historical level of 2010 (8. 95 per kilogram)。
According to the estimates of the garlic farmers at the time of the interview, the freezing of garlic this year was somewhat later than in 2016, but the severity was greater, compounded by the fact that, in the short term, there were two freezing superstitions。
Falling cultivation area
From a more macro perspective, the domestic supply of garlic has been declining for many years, and in recent years there has been a decline in production in several of our major garlic-producing areas. According to the latest data compiled by the department of markets and informatization of the ministry of agriculture and rural development, the area under garlic cultivation in the country was 1,412,000 acres in 2022, a decrease of 5. 2 per cent over the same period, and national garlic production was 22,341,000 tons in 2023, a decrease of 4 per cent over the same period。
“as a result of fluctuations in market prices, rising costs, epidemics, etc., some of the growing areas have experienced loss or discontinuation.” anmin, member of the early warning team for the analysis of vegetable markets of the ministry of agriculture and rural development, stated that, overall, there had been a decrease in the area under garlic cultivation in the country and a trend towards concentration of cultivation areas。
Against the backdrop of a double decline in the production of garlic, the bias has caught up with the continued increase in exports。
As the world's leading exporter of garlic, garlic is our advantage in exporting agricultural products. In the last six years, the annual volume of garlic exports has remained at 1. 7 to 2. 5 million tons. The data show that the total volume of our garlic exports in 2023 was 2,261,000 tons, an increase of 225,000 tons over the same period, or 1. 01 per cent, and that there were more than 160 countries and territories in export markets。
In addition, in previous years, quota orders from large importing countries, such as indonesia, were decentralized at the end of february and early march, and this year indonesia's quota was decentralized earlier than spring. Regional orders, such as in south-east asia, are abundant and the volume of market export orders increases, resulting in a boom in domestic garlic purchases and sales。
The rise in exports has been reflected in orders from garlic farmers. As a core area of national garlic production, the relevant head of the communications department of the shandong district council stated that the international order received by the kinya garlic farmers has increased by more than 20 per cent from spring to date, mainly as a result of the increase in import quotas in major importing countries such as indonesia。
The proliferation of exports, the loss of production from the freeze and the difficulty of having garlic prices take off have also led to an increase in the appetite of storeers and garlic farmers. In the past month, the price of ordinary mixed garlic has risen from $3. 5 to $4 per pound, to $4. 5 and $4. 8, and the space for the increase remains invisible. According to distributors, the more the business looks, the more the garlic is put in the freezer, and the more the stock is stretched next year。
Garlic farmers began to refresh their trades with mobile phones, and the mood of sale was a sign of the price of the carving. According to the flag of the wang army, the price per acre of garlic is about $4,000, which has now risen to $67,000, and there will even be no market。
Unpredictable garlic cycle
Why is it so crazy to say that the “robbery” is the true picture of garlic after the spring festival, and that the price of cuene garlic has been rising since february 13th
There is no doubt that the cold and cold before and after the spring season directly fuelled the rising mood of this round. In the meantime, the subject of garlic has been repeatedly mentioned, and images of the freezing of garlic seedlings have often been blocked on short video platforms, often with the addition of the garlic farmer's “cut by more than 20 per cent”。
“it has been easier for garlic farmers to access a variety of information since the media era and to be more vulnerable to market sentiment.” according to the queen's flag, today's garlic farmers have moved away from the age of garlic, and the market is often followed by mobile phones, and the distribution of garlic is largely synchronized。
Interested practitioners began to develop market strategies from stock levels. According to statistics, in 2023, the total national stock of garlic-producing areas was 4. 48 million tons, while as at 8 march, the national stock of garlic stock was less than 2 million tons. In the context of the likely decline in production of this year's cold, there is concern about the amount of garlic in the inventory, which is called “pressure mountain”。
New production has declined, exports have increased, and stocks have naturally declined and are ultimately transmitted to market terminals。
Moreover, the so-called garlic cycle is being studied and summarized. According to practitioners, over the years, garlic has grown and production and consumption have been relatively balanced, characterizing the production and distribution of relatively concentrated areas and relatively stable market patterns. Garlic reserves, transactions are sales over time, and prices form essentially a three-year band and six-year cycle of “the garlic cycle”. Starting with a low price in 2018, garlic prices in 2024 are at a volatile stage of recovery in the new cycle。
In response, anmin stated that the increases and decreases over the past few years were broadly consistent with the cycle, but that in the near future, as the domestic garlic market continues to improve, the garlic cycle will break the “magic curse” of the price cycle, as does the already “discovered” pig cycle。
In fact, as a flavoured product, garlic consumption is not rigid and is more influenced by market prices. For example, the shortage of stocks in most garlic processing plants after the spring festival, combined with a one-step increase in prices a day, resulted in some of the already billed processing plants paying for their cabinets, while some of the processing plants chose to suspend their billings and watch the movement of garlic。
For ordinary garlic farmers, large market volatility in the short term does not necessarily ultimately lead to gains. As time moves backwards and the time of the new season of garlic is getting closer to the market, the imperial army flag and the garlic farmers have stepped up their communication and intend to be ready to get out of the car at any time, even if they do not sell at the highest point. Wang xiaochuan, jae-jee, benevolent
