In historical terms, the polystyrene market was in a difficult position in 2015 in terms of prices, imports, exports and consumption, and the industrial chain was not profitable. Polystyrene enterprises are underemployed and production has declined; the domestic and external economic environment is not ideal, and imports and exports have slowed; and demand has decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, as a result of the repeated bombings by chemical enterprises, which have led to increased environmental protection and security checks and the parking of parts of downstream production plants. After nine and a half years, it's still going down, and it's hard to expect。
♪ one, the line is falling ♪
As far as price trends are concerned, there has been a rebound since may in the downward route of the domestic ps market, but it has been small and short-term, and the overall decline has been difficult to halt. Compared to the same period last year, prices have been at different levels, with prices in the ps market now approaching 8,000. On the one hand, styrene, the raw material, which began in late august, witnessed a surge in stocks at the port of huadong and a sharp rise in commodity stock from 320,000 tons to 77,000 tons, an increase of 140 per cent. To date, port stocks are still on the upward trend, and after half of september, the expected “golden 9 and silver 10” has not yet appeared, and cost prices will hover over low levels and lower the market threshold. On the other hand, downstream demand is weaker than last year, and small and medium-sized enterprises face greater production pressures, which also increases the influence of market mindsets, makes purchases difficult to follow, and lowers the highest prices in the market. To date, gps prices in yuya market are around 8,600-9200 yuan/t; hipc prices are 9,300-9,600 yuan/tonne (including tax prices). The price of gps in the east china market was $8000-8700/t; the price of hipcs was $8400-9,000/t。
2. Low-volume enterprise production, but supply pressures remain
In china, only one family is petrochemical; in china, petrochemicals are: yanshan; in guangzhou; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china; in china。
According to the start-up rate of the complex, the average start-up rate for january-august was around 57 per cent, a decrease of 8. 1 per cent from the same period last year. The concentration of about 68 per cent of domestic ps production in the east china region, while the production of medium- and low-end materials accounts for about 60 per cent, is undoubtedly exacerbated by the relatively high competition for homogenization in a low-end market that would otherwise be squeezed, as well as the sharp increase in raw materials this year, the fall in demand, the overloading of benzene-reform production, and the parking or conversion of most plant benzene wires. Despite this, the low supply of markets has not improved the supply-to-demand situation, and the decline in demand is more unexpected, as the market understands that consumption this year is down by about 30 per cent compared to the same period last year, which also keeps the pressure on spot supplies。
3. Weak sales and exports slide
The combined picture shows that domestic ps market consumption in january-august was 1. 7765 million tons, a 7. 6 per cent decrease from the same period last year. The decline in production was on the one hand, while imports were 49,000 tons lower than last year, with a direct impact on weak domestic demand and inadequate domestic consumption. In addition, the price of abs downstream with the same hips applications has been declining, with the difference between the two falling to within 2000 yuan/ton, and the replacement of some high- and medium-end manufacturers with the procurement of abs raw materials has also resulted in a decrease in some hips applications. On the export side, there was a relatively low demand for ps raw materials, all of which were less than tons per month, especially this year, which was about 3,000 tons, compared to 56,000 tons last year。
4. Economic data are not ideal and demand is difficult to improve
In recent days, the china finance news media has published a “pmi” preview of the financial new china manufacturing purchasing manager index”, which fell to 47 in september, reaching its lowest level since march 2009 (44. 8 at that time); although the final values will be released on 1 october, they are not currently very variable. The pmi index is generally seen as a development in china's manufacturing industry, and for the plastics sector, the pmi reflects to some extent the production operations of the plastics industry, as well as indirectly the demand for raw materials from plastics terminal firms. In particular, in the domestic electricity sector, the traditional gold, silver and silver sales season has been gradually divided by daily promotions and small holidays, while high inventory data for the air-conditioning sector have been ablaze, with weak demand in the end manufacturing sector and reduced enthusiasm for raw materials purchases。
Taken together, we continue to be unsatisfied with the long-line domestic ps market, and the lack of improvement in turnover continues to hamper progress, but the rise and fall in raw materials still affect short-line conditions, and operators still need to look carefully。
