Friday, 24k99 (15 march), a week of economic data has led investors to lower their expectations of interest rates in the united states, increasing pressure on precious metals, and keeping gold prices stable on friday, recording a four-week drop for the first time。
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(post gold trend, source: fx168)
Cash gold fell by 0. 30 per cent and received $2155. 70 per ounce. Gold prices fell by 0. 8 per cent this week, the first weekly decline since mid-february, with a record high of $2,194. 99 last week。
Comex lost 0. 28 per cent in the gold futures settlement in april and received $2161. 5/ounces。
Comex raised the silver futures settlement price by 1. 28 per cent in may and received $25,381 per ounce。
Market news analysis
This week's data show that consumer prices in the united states in february increased more than expected, and producer prices showed some inflationary vistas。
Chief gainesville coinsMarket analysisAccording to everett millman, “golden has absorbed the positive momentum of the expected decline in interest rates ... If inflation starts to rise again, this means that policymakers will have to maintain stricter monetary policies for a longer period.” although gold does not particularly like the high interest rate environment, if interest rates remain so high, the reason is overheating inflation ... Naturally, it means that people turn to gold again."
Higher-than-anticipated inflation continues to pressure the federal reserve to maintain high interest rates, thus undermining the price of the money. This non-revenging precious metal is also used to hedge against inflation。
The traders continued to bet on the june interest rate, and the cme fedwatch tool considered the june interest rate to be 59 per cent。
The united states dollar index is the largest single week increase since mid-january, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers。
In a report, goldman sachs wrote: “we have increased the average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2090 to $2180 per ounce, with the goal of rising to $2,300 per ounce by the end of the year.”
The federal reserve’s expectation of a reduction in interest rates has not prevented the price of the money from rising. New zealand economists believe that the macroeconomic and geopolitical context remains favourable. They stated that “the timing and pace of the fed's interest rate reduction is a long-term driver of gold. At present, the fed needs to be more confident that inflation will return to 2 per cent before interest rate reductions are considered. We are confident that the reduction will begin in july this year. Markets are digesting price reductions that began in the second half of 2024. In other words, the expected fall in the market from march to june may limit price increases. The change in the ruling party in the united states would pose a risk to future policy. In the midst of economic and geopolitical tensions, the stock market has reached a record high. This may make investors more wary of downside risk than of upward potential. As the united states elections approach, volatility is expected to increase. The exposure of the stock market will support the price.”
The german commercial bank strategist indicated that the recent increase in gold prices could not be fully explained from a fundamental point of view, so that the price could be adjusted in the short term. They noted that “in the absence of a convincing explanation for the increase in gold, we are sceptical as to whether precious metals can sustain the increase in the short term. In particular, if the us interest rate decline is expected to be hit by a new blow, as was the case after the us inflation figures were again strong on tuesday, many investors might be tempted to profit, while the recent moderate downward revision might continue. However, since the federal reserve is expected to start a decline in interest rates from june, it is unlikely that the price will fall back to the end of february, which should support it. In the medium to long term, however, the potential for further advancement may be limited. This is because the united states is unlikely to experience a significant interest rate reduction cycle, given the persistence of inflation risks. So we're just going to end this year and nextGold pricesIt is projected to increase from $2,100 to $2,200 per ounce.”
Data from the united states commodity futures trading commission (cftc) indicate that, as of the week of 12 march, the net speculative multiple position of comex silver had increased by 11132 to 26661; the net speculative multiple position of comex gold had increased by 28,500 to 159560。
This week, 11 analysts participated in the kitconews gold survey, and nearly three quarters of wall street interviewees now expect that the price of the gold will fall or be rounded up. Only three experts, or 27 per cent, projected an increase in gold prices next week, and the same percentage of experts predicted that the prices would fluctuate between regions. Prices of precious metals are forecast to decline most by six analysts, or 46 per cent。
Meanwhile, a total of 194 votes were cast in an online poll in kitco, and most street investors still forecast a further increase in gold prices next week. The price of gold is expected to rise next week for 110 (56 per cent) of the bulk traders. A further 54 respondents (or 29 per cent) projected lower gold prices, while 30 respondents (or 15 per cent) were neutral about the immediate prospects for gold。
Next transaction day focuses on financial data and events (beijing time)
Monday: central bank of japan monetary policy decision, reserve bank of australia monetary policy decision
Tuesday: new house in the united states and building permits
Wednesday: federal reserve monetary policy decisions
Thursday: central bank of switzerland monetary policy decision, bank of england monetary policy decision, weekly unemployment benefit application, philadelphia federal reserve manufacturing survey, pmi preview, united states house sales
