I. Analysis of the multiple factors
On 27 april, the steel spot market rose steadily and the main futures market species moved away, mainly as a result of the following factors:
1. Department of statistics: decline of 21. 4 per cent in national profits of industrial enterprises above scale in january - march 2023
Between january and march, industrial enterprises of all sizes and above achieved a total profit of 15,16. 74 billion yuan, a decrease of 21. 4 per cent over the same period. Of these, the metallic smelting and scalding industry received a profit of 1968. 540 billion yuan, an increase of 5. 6 per cent over the same period; operating costs of 1897. 01 billion yuan, an increase of 3. 2 per cent over the same period; and total profits of 48. 4 billion yuan, an increase of 11. 9 per cent over the same period。
2. The shanghai headquarters of the people's bank: promoting the use of rmb in priority areas such as bulk commodities such as iron ore
With regard to the cross-border use of the renminbi, liu xingya, deputy director of the shanghai headquarters of the people's bank of china, stated in a press conference today that he was promoting the settlement of the renminbi in priority areas such as large commodities such as iron ore, oil and natural gas, and promoting cross-border settlements in priority areas such as the “one way forward” and asean, as well as in key enterprises such as zong and municipal enterprises, to better serve the country's priority strategy。
3. U. S. Total and bank stock prices have collapsed
The united states total and bank share prices continued to decline by almost 30 per cent on 26 april, following a sharp decline of 49. 38 per cent in local time. The bank's share price has fallen by about 95 per cent since this year. The stock price was at a new low and the market value fell by $1 billion。
The above factors affect the steel market as follows:
1. Overall, the decline in the profits of industrial enterprises remains large and the losses of enterprises remain high. In the next phase, in order to stabilize the economy, the government is expected to put in place more policy measures to increase market demand, boost market confidence, improve business expectations, increase production and marketing linkages and promote an accelerated recovery of profits for industrial enterprises. The price of steel is expected to stop and stabilize, driven by a favourable policy stance。
2. The process of internationalization of the renminbi has accelerated considerably, with data showing that in march the share of the renminbi in our cross-border transactions exceeded the united states dollar for the first time in 13 years. An increasing number of countries are abandoning the dollar, brazil and china are entering into agreements to trade in local currency, argentina is using the renminbi to settle chinese imports, and as large commodities such as iron ore are settled in the renminbi, it is helping to stabilize iron ore prices and improve steel prices。
3. Total and banks are on the verge of bankruptcy, and the banking crisis is not over. In the face of the current complex situation, former united states chief of finance, mr. Summers, stated that the right option for the fed next week was to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points. According to chase morgan, economic data indicate that the united states is moving towards recession. The fed's interest rate hike will have an impact on large commodity prices, such as international oil prices and iron ore prices, which are moving in the face of risks from abroad。
Ii. Today's steel market
1. The spot market
Today, the domestic steel market has grown steadily and the turnover has not changed much, and by the time of submission the prices of the country's main varieties have fallen as follows:
2. Futures master force
In futures, by the end of the harvest, the screw main force fell by between 0. 30 per cent and $3691, the heat scroll main strength fell between 0. 64 per cent and $3740, the iron ore main strength increased between 0. 56 per cent and $71. 3. 5 per cent, the coke main power fell between 2. 48 and $1416. 5 and the coke main strength fell between 1. 39 and 2164. 0 per cent。
3. Plant price increases
According to incomplete statistics, today there are 11 steel plants that have adjusted the prices of their construction materials, 10 of which have been revised upwards and 1 downwards, ranging from $10 to $30 per ton. Specifically:
Increase:
1. Southern steel: screw price up by $10/ton。
2. Yangtze: an increase of $20 per ton in the price of screws and screws。
Steel: an increase of $20 per ton in the price of screws, threads and screws。
4. Nine rivers: an increase of $10/t。
5. Cyan: an increase of $10 per ton in the price of threads。
6. South-east: an increase of $10/t。
Guangxi price fung: 20 yuan/t; 30 yuan/t。
8. Guangdong kim shaolan: an increase of $20 per ton in the price of screws, threads and screws。
9. Guangdong goung steel: an increase of $10/t; an increase of $20/t。
10. Guangxi gui cui: an increase of $20 per ton for screw price; an increase of $30 per ton for screw and thread。
Downwards:
11. Shanxi state: 30 yuan/tonne lower for screws, threads and screws。
These adjustments include taxes。
Iii. Original fuel market
Imported minerals today: the market price of the main variety of imported iron ore rose slightly by about 10. There are signs of stability in the black system, reduced profit from compressed steel plants in the prices of finished materials, a fall in iron water production and negative feedback on iron ore prices. But now that iron ore prices are close to the non-mainstream cost line of $90, iron ore prices are expected to rebound in the near future, with a narrow shock expected tomorrow。
Today's coke: the main market has a steady flow of coke. The current caustic output is weak, coke stocks accumulate further, and coke supply and demand structures continue in a loose pattern. According to market sources, a steel plant in hebei has reduced the purchase price for coke by $100 per ton, and a fifth round of price reductions has already arrived, and the market for coke is expected to continue to be weak in the short term。
Waste steel today: prices for steel scrap in mainstream plants are stable at 10-30. As the snail turns red, the spot price of steel rebounds slightly, the partially closed base starts to take delivery, and individual vendors slightly increase the price of scrap steel. For steel plants, the arrival of scrap steel has been significantly reduced, but the price of finished materials has rebounded, and the price of scrap steel is temporarily supported. Overall, tomorrow's prices for scrap steel are expected to be stable。
Today's steel: tangshan's move to the anipang resource is taxed at $3560 per ton. The steel market is generally closed, but the price of downstream finished materials has risen slightly and the superheavy period has doubled, and a narrow price shock is expected tomorrow。
Iv. The steel-popping perspective
As the number of lost steel plants increased, the number of low-yield furnaces scheduled for overhaul in may increased, and supply and demand conflicts in the steel market eased. The price of steel is now low, the trade has begun to improve in the near future, the storage has begun to decline, and steel prices are in need of rebounding in the short term. However, it is also important to note that the recovery downstream has been relatively slow and that market acceptance of high-priced resources is low. The reduction in production is merely a bottom-up effect on steel prices, and whether or not steel prices will rise again is critical to demand. Added to the larger expectations for the fifth round of coke, the expected easing of iron ore supplies in the later period, there is still room for steel prices to fall in the long term. Overall, steel price shocks are expected to be weak tomorrow, ranging from 10-30。
Special tributes: west ben, lange, my steel, the national statistical office, the associated press, the daily economic news, etc。
