Net 9 january — monday (8 january) — the gold situation in january this year is not very optimistic, with a drop of over 1 per cent in the cash pallet on monday, and the current market estimate of gold prices will continue to decline, with a focus on 2000 dollars/ounce key prices. Gold continues to be supported by a trend line near approximately us$ 2020/ounce, but the seller is currently in the dominant position. The situation is unlikely to change unless bond yields begin to decline or markets reverse last week's price trend for other reasons. As things stand, the market may have to wait for the release of united states cpi data on thursday to be able to learn about the future of gold。
Monday (8 january) the gold situation in january this year was less than encouraging, with a drop of over 1 per cent in a cash gold plate on monday, and the current market estimate of gold prices will continue downwards, with a focus on 2000 dollars/ounce key prices. Gold continues to be supported by a trend line near approximately us$ 2020/ounce, but the seller is currently in the dominant position. The situation is unlikely to change unless bond yields begin to decline or markets reverse last week's price trend for other reasons. As things stand, the market may have to wait for the release of united states cpi data on thursday to be able to learn about the future of gold。
(post gold trends)
Cash gold fell by 0. 85 per cent and received $2027. 97 per ounce。
Comex lost 0. 8 per cent on gold futures in february and received $2033. 5 per ounce。
Comex fell by 0. 02 per cent in march and received $23. 31 per ounce。
Market news analysis
The gold price fell in a downward spiral on monday and fell to a two-week low near the optimistic united states monthly employment data on friday. Earlier monday, the gold touched the three-week low point 2016. 71. Owing to the lack of significant fresh and basic information at the beginning of the trade week, precious metal traders have focused their attention on external markets, while the prices of crude oil in the commodity-intensive industries of raw materials have fallen significantly。
The well-known non-agricultural employment data (nfp) report notes that the united states labour market remains resilient and forces investors to continue to reduce expectations of more radical policy easing for the fed. This, in turn, continues to underpin the rise in the return on united states treasury debt, which has contributed to the dollar and has pushed funds away from this non-revenue yellow metal. However, gallo, the “debtlord”, considered that the united states had overvalued 4 per cent of its 10-year sovereign debt, saying that the 10-year united states bond rate of inflation was a “better option”。
In his speech on monday in preparation for the 2024 community banker conference of the south carolina bankers association, federal reserve governor bowman stated that the fed’s monetary policy seemed “sufficiently restrictive” to reduce inflation to its target of 2 per cent. Bowman also expressed her willingness to support the eventual reduction in interest rates as inflation fell. This marks a change in her long-held view that there may be a need to further tighten policies to control inflation. According to bowman: “my point of view has changed, considering that if policy interest rates remain at their current level for some time, inflation may fall further.” if, over time, inflation continues to fall close to our 2 per cent target, the process of lowering interest rates will eventually need to be initiated to prevent policies from becoming too restrictive.”
The united states data point for this week is the december consumer price index report and the december producer price index report on thursday. In recent months, inflation has cooled in the united states, which has enabled the fed to relax its tight monetary policy. The cpi report projected an increase of 3. 3 per cent over the same period, while the november report reported an increase of 3. 1 per cent. If the data are strong, the dollar may be boosted and the gold denominated in dollars may be pressed。
The investment analyst of xm, the foreign exchange broker, marios hadjikyriacos, wrote: “the recent performance of gold will depend on inflation data this week, but the basic outlook seems to be favourable, as interest rate declines are only a matter of time”. “... The tendency of central banks to buy gold directly is another upward trend, which could continue for many years if the geopolitical climate remains unstable.”
Walsh trading’s co-director, sean lusk, argues that sales after non-farm employment today and the rise after ism are all designed to adjust the fed’s interest rate expectations, but the looming middle east conflict also supports gold and silver prices。
Adam button, head of monetary policy, forexlive. Com, states that seasonal and latest employment data indicate an increase in gold prices, but the response of precious metals to cpi will be critical。
Tuesday trading day focused on financial data and events (beijing time)
1 14:45 unemployment rate in switzerland after the december season
15:00 monthly rate of industrial output after season change in germany in november
3. 15:45 french trade account for november
4 18:00 eurozone unemployment rate in november
5900. Nfib small business confidence index, december
6. 21:30 u. S. Trade account november
7 monthly short-term energy outlook report published by eia on the following day, 01/1
8 05:30 united states crude oil stock from week 5 january
