In september, kim autumn, which was a long tradition of animal husbandry, this year's pig market has been chilling. According to a number of web-based monitoring data on pigs, the average price of the country's three foreign pigs on 26 september was $12. 71 per kilogram, a decrease of 0. 04 per kilogram compared to yesterday's, and the “five pig price zone” now covers half of the country。
Meanwhile, ministry of agriculture and rural affairs monitoring data show that during the third week of september, the national average price of raw pigs was $13. 85 per kg and the national average price of pork was $24. 51 per kg, a decrease of 0. 8 per cent from the previous week。
Zero-one
In sharp contrast to the low price of pigs, there has been a continuous rise in feed production. Between january and august 2025, national feed production reached an all-time high of 216 million tons, an increase of 6. 7 per cent over the previous year。
Forage production was 2. 93 million tons per month in august, representing an increase of 3. 7 per cent over the ring and 3. 8 per cent over the same period。
Behind this drop is a reflection of the profound difficulties currently facing the pig industry. Farmers are under great pressure of loss, with a loss of $34. 71 and a loss of $53. 99 on a scale of more than 5,000。
The loss of fertilizer for out-of-pocket pigs was as high as $307. 23 per head, an increase of $60 over the previous week。
02 overcapacity
Overcapacity is currently at the core of the pig industry. Data from the ministry of agriculture and rural development show that there were 4,038 thousand female pigs in storage nationwide at the end of august, representing 103. 5 per cent of the 39 million normal holdings。
Despite the decline in the three-month cycle ratio in the number of capable pigs, the decline was only 1. 2 per cent, well below the 5 per cent monthly average of the african swine plague in 2018。
Even more worrying is the fact that increased production efficiency actually increases market supply. Today, the sow psy (the number of weaning pigs per pig per year) has risen from 24 in the past to around 26, and the lead company has even reached 32。
This means that even if the number of pigs remains constant, the actual number of outbounds is increasing。
The farmers' “pressure-sale” strategy to reduce their losses has led to a total of 128. 55 kg of pig production, which has reached a record high, further exacerbating the market oversupply。
03 strong policy interventions
In the face of industry difficulties, the policy level is actively leading to the dedevelopment of production capacity. On 16 september, the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs, in conjunction with the national commission for development and development, organized a workshop on pig production and energy management enterprises, which provided clear control indicators for the storage of columns and weights。
There was a clear call for the production reduction of farming agents and for large farming groups to reduce the production of 1 million pigs by the end of the year。
In fact, in june of this year, the relevant departments convened a pig production control conference, which proposed a reduction of approximately 1 million heads to 39. 5 million on the basis of the existing level of stock of the country's capable mother pigs。
In july, the ministry of agriculture and rural development again convened a symposium to promote quality development in the pig industry, which called for strict implementation of capacity management initiatives。
At the same time, as of 1 september 2025, new regulations for the management of livestock farms have been applied uniformly throughout the country。
This rigidity has substantially raised the industry's entry threshold and accelerated the production of behind capacity。
04 enterprises emergency “skinned”
Under the direction of policy, the leading firms have become increasingly active, starting with the “skinner” programme:
From the highest level of stock of 3,621,000 pigs, her shares have been reduced by 190,000 and are expected to fall to 3. 3 million by the end of the year。
Wynth shares prohibit the sale of pig production to second-rate fertilizer customers, and strictly control the number of loads of fatty pigs while gradually lowering the load。
New hope indicates that the company stock has barely increased since 2023 and will remain at its current size for some time to come, while keeping the weight of raw pigs permanently at 118 to 120 kg。
The distribution of raw pigs in the three main pig enterprises (majilan shares, wen's shares, new hopes) has declined by year。
05 small and medium-sized family seeking breakout
In the face of changes in the industry, small and medium-sized households are also actively seeking ways out. They have moved away from the notion of “playing gambling” in the past to a more flexible exit strategy in which they have learned to “get high”。
The data show that the weight of pigs was 2. 6 kg lower in august than in june, and that there was a marked decrease in small and medium farmer pressure。
In order to reduce the impact of market volatility, small and medium-sized farmers in some regions have established close cooperation with leading firms through models such as “order farming” “hosting foster care”。
In henan, the local agricultural and rural sector plays an active role as a bridge, leading small and medium-sized farmers to enter into orders with enterprises such as pastoralists and double-swidges to farm in accordance with business standards。
Some small and medium-sized enterprises have built “cities” through differentiated operations. For example, a black boar processing company in xanxiang has developed pre-prefabricated food products such as black pork meat and steam bowls for sale to the province and shanghai, guangzhou and urumqi。
In sichuan, yunnan and other places, indigenous pig farmers have also succeeded in raising the sale price to more than $20/kg, more than 40 per cent of the ordinary pork premium, by building “ecological pig meat” “organic certification”。
Where's the future
In the face of current market difficulties, industry analyses suggest that in the short term, mid-autumn, national holidays and the beginning of the school season may lead to a warmer consumption, with multiple pork collections, and the price of pigs or periods of decline。
With the gradual implementation of the goal of reducing the availability of sows, it is expected that the price of pigs will increase in the long term, either with the effect of reducing production capacity or in the second half of 2026。
According to the south china futures analyst, dai hong soo, a series of measures have been taken recently to regulate production capacity and the “policy base” has become apparent. The “market floor” has not yet really taken shape, as the amount of raw pigs is still high and enterprises are under pressure to exit。
In the view of wang yao, the zhuiqiang information and piggy analyst, in the future the industry may have a “three-tier” pattern, with 30 per cent of the head enterprise securing basic capacity, 30 per cent of specialty farming meeting differentiated needs and 40 per cent of medium-sized family farms offering flexibility。
Such a structure would be conducive to counter-cyclical fluctuations。
According to agricultural researchers, the reduction of 1 million capable pigs this time is equivalent to a reduction in the supply of 9 million raw pigs, and the price volatility of pigs is expected to narrow by 30 per cent in 2026。
This “efficiency revolution” in the pig industry is rewriting the traditional cyclical logic of pigs。
# pig price #
