Following the bottom-up of prices in 2024, low-level shocks were maintained in 2025, and the quality advantages of core land areas, such as the toan emblem and yunnan, combined with the industry's multiple benefits, will lead to a critical turn in 2026. This focused analysis of price trends and local resources will provide an accurate picture of the investment and layout opportunities in the market。
Medicine
I. Inventory of the core land area: double security of quality and supply
The nine major provinces are covered by the land estates, which, depending on their unique climatic and soil conditions, have a differentiated quality advantage and are a core source of supply for quality goods in 2026:
• traditional core production areas: anhui (chouzhou, euxi), yunnan (pu ma and liang), which generally have more than 15 per cent sugar content, meet the high standard of the 2025 version of the pharmacological code, are the main output areas of high quality markets, accounting for over 60 per cent of high-end markets
• producing production areas: hubei (english hills, roda), hunan (yangzhou, lungshan), growing on a large scale, taking advantage of the concentration of rare cutting enterprises (12 priority enterprises in hunan alone) and providing a stable supply, which is the core supply of ordinary processed goods
• specialty eco-regions: guangxi, guizhou, henan, zhejiang, shaanxi, itosan ecological environment, mainly green farming, some of which are certified through gap and are suitable for high-end demand for connected functional foods, exports, etc。
These estates are not only the core carriers of supply, but also the key underpinnings of the “good quality premium” in the 2026 price hike - the quality premium for the drug will be further increased, and the difference between low quality goods in the off-site and high quality goods in the property area may exceed $5/kg。
Zenium
Market bottom-up by 2025: price of surface goods is stable and overall is five years low
In 2025, the market was divided into “land goods resistant to falling and ordinary goods weak”:
• anhui, yunnan estate area, with a stable price of 22-21 yuan/kg (january-august) and a slight decline of 19-20 yuan/kg in the second half of the year, but a decline of only 13 per cent, significantly lower than that of more than 20 per cent in non-local properties
• a general bulk offer in non-local estate areas is as low as $10-10. 5 per kg, which is over 60 per cent below its peak in 2021 and close to the processing cost line
• the central reason is that, in the last three years, the blind expansion of non-local estate areas has resulted in oversupply, while the land estate areas have been subject to cropping norms, ecological conservation restrictions, a moderate increase in production and a combination of standardized cultivation at the gap base (e. G. Yunnan pu-lang, hubei youngshan and the cultivation co-operative) with greater quality stability and lower inventory pressure。
Detailed summary of prices (per kilogram) in 2025 (亳, an, chengdu, yulin)
Iii. Price trends in 2026: an increase in the number of landlines and an overall recovery in temperature
A combination of changes in supply, supply and demand patterns and policy dividends in the land estates will set off a low-level shock in 2026 and enter a new cycle of upturns, with the land estates becoming the main source of price increases:
1. A moderate recovery in overall prices: after new production is expected in 2026, ordinary scrumptious prices are expected to rise again to 12-13 yuan/kg, with total raw cargo exceeding 7. 5 yuan/kg, with an average annual increase of 3 to 5 per cent
2. There is a greater potential for higher price increases for high-quality goods in the field: the price of anhui, yunnan estate area general, is expected to rise again to 23-25 yuan/kg, an increase of 21 to 32 per cent, and the price premium certified by the gap (e. G., hu'i yunjii medicine in hubei and the product of the dragons in rhoda drug cooperative) will be increased further and will increase by a factor of one
3. Price volatility has been flattened: the diffusion of smart-growing technologies (e. G., on-line monitoring, on-breeding) and industrial chains in land estates will reduce the impact of natural disasters on production and overall price volatility is expected to fall to less than 5 per cent in 2026, with a marked improvement in market stability。
Zenium
Iv. Three core logics driving price increases in 2026 (domain area as key variables)
1. Demand-side multi-point explosion, favouring street goods: the surge in demand for chinese medicine formulations, sugar-polymer extracts, pharmacological co-products (47 per cent increase in related areas in 2024), the priority for downstream enterprises to secure product quality through the purchase of euphoria, the supply of land-based goods such as yunnan and the sale of online pharmacological products will reach 30 per cent, further boosting the demand for street goods
2. Policy and internationalization dividend, with land estates receiving focused support: the strategic plan framework for the development of chinese medicines focuses on supporting the construction of a drug base in the provinces, with central fiscal allocations favouring core production areas such as anhui and yunnan; driven by the “one-way journey”, exports to japan, korea and south-east asia have increased by 12 per cent annually, the landing of eu certification has resulted in a 60 per cent increase in the unit price of goods exported from the provinces and new growth points in overseas markets
3. The supply of land estates has contracted and the costs of the industry have shifted upwards: low prices in 2025 have curbed the incentives of small farmers in non-land estates, with a projected reduction of 15-20 per cent in the area under cultivation in 2026, while land estates are constrained by planting planning, ecological conservation, making it difficult to quickly supplement their production; and the enforcement of the code for the quality management of production of chinese medicines, the acceleration of integration at the gap base in the land estates and the steady shift in the industry cost centre。
V. Market layout recommendations 2026: targeting resources to avoid low-quality risks
• growers: priority is given to the layout of land areas in the anhui, yunnan and hubei lanes, using standardized planting techniques and high-quality bacterial species, targeting orders for “enterprises + cooperatives” (e. G., anhui han chinese medicine, hunan tian medicine industry, etc.) and locking in on the proceeds
• dealers: a modest supply of high-quality goods is currently available, with a focus on the products of the sap base in core production areas such as anhui county, yunnan pu ma and hubei insan, avoiding the risk of low-quality competition in non-local property areas
• investors: a complex annual growth rate of 28 per cent in high-value-added areas, such as high-capacity foods, extracts and so forth, with a focus on deep-scale drug-processing tracks, anhui, yunnan estates, is central to the long-term layout。
The year 2026 will be a critical year for the reversal of the market cycle, and the rise in the number and quality of landlines will be a central feature. High-quality sources of goods and high value added in the core estates can be captured precisely to capture the development dividends of the industry。
