It is estimated that many people did not expect our house prices to decline rapidly from 2021, with a three-to-four per cent drop in comparison to the high point, and a half-fall is normal, or even a down payment。
It was said that it would have been better to have paid all the rents at the higher end of the day and to buy them now. But it was also said that there was no human eye, and who could have predicted the way back
You really don't have to say that there are great gods in the market that are very accurate in predicting the direction of the market and that, after doing their own business, they keep their wealth growing。
You know lee ka-sheng, who has been the richest chinese for years. As our city reaches its peak, there is an amazing prophecy:
“the price of housing in hong kong and the mainland will be subject to substantial adjustment over the next five years, as demand has already been released in the previous few years, and the future faces a `depletion of demand' and high prices and significant adjustment pressures over the next five years.”
When he said that, a lot of people laughed at him. After all, when the market was crazy, people were buying, the demand was so strong, how could the price of the house be changed
Not only did li ka-sun say that, but he was selling it with real action. Land was first stopped and, at the peak, earlier parcels were transferred over and over again, and significant cash flows were recovered. In the mainland and in hong kong, he began to clear the building, and it is believed that during that period he had several reports of a 7-per-cent sale of his house and had spent billions of dollars a night。
Some say that he was stupid and that he was mocked by some inland developers at the time, suggesting that he could sell $10 billion, while he sold $7 billion. I don't know, he's going to sell for $10 billion, and he's going to sell for $7 billion, and he's been robbed overnight。
So far, no one seems to think that li ka-cheng's predictions are inaccurate and unwise. As stated at the beginning, the full prophecy of li ka-sheng has been verified:
One was the entry of large numbers of highly leveraged home buyers, not only for immediate needs, but also for large numbers of investors, all of whom were placed on hilltops, resulting in depleted demand in the coming years。
Second, the prices of second- and third- and fourth-line cities, quality housing, and poor quality housing have been subject to significant price adjustments, none of which have been spared。
The correctness of his prophecy is linked to the idea that he has always practised. In his view, the house was used to live and the high price of the house, driven by speculation, was unsustainable。
By 2026, the market had reached such a critical juncture, and what was the next trend in the market? In the view of those who know the profession, there will be three major shifts in the city in 2026 if there are no accidents。
First, the house price is at a real bottom。
For the time being, housing prices in most cities have not reached the bottom, mainly with inertia. On the one hand, this is due to the fact that expectations of weak future real estate values remain unchanged, which is linked to the continuing decline in our fertility rate and insufficient income stability. On the other hand, developers still have a large number of homes and housing sources, that is to say, large quantities of stocks, markets still oversupply, and they still have low prices to pay off their debts。
However, the market for second-hand houses, represented by the first-line cities, has become increasingly active following the deep readjustment of the building market in previous years, with reduced bargaining space for second-hand houses and reduced swing space for the stage. However, the reduction in the floor space of the lower house price does not mean that the house price is inverted immediately. At this stage, the market is still dominated by digestive stocks and is entering a real bottom-up phase。
Second, the number of renters is increasing。
While the current prices were much cheaper than they had been a few years earlier, they did not mean that all needed to buy a house. According to the 2025 blue book report:
The share of tenants over 35 years of age in 40 priority cities was 35 per cent, 4. 9 percentage points higher than the peak in 2021. That's weird. House prices are falling and renting. What's going on
To put it straight, they don't want the house, but because:
On the one hand, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make money, and the pressure to buy is still high
On the other hand, they are alive, and now 90 years later, including 00, either their parents have a house or they lie flat, do not want to be slaves, do not want to work for capital. This is somewhat similar in japan, where rental rates have been 30-40 per cent, and the more economically developed the later the young people prefer rental housing, which is directly linked to the change in their perception of consumption。
Another reason is that the market is at its bottom, and the renters of the renters want to wait and see how the market is going and do not want to rush。
Thirdly, old sub-districts have become more mobile。
Over the years, many experts have said too much about “fatal” to replace. On the contrary, as can be seen from the data on second-hand houses in front-line cities in 2025, large cities such as shenzhen, shanghai and other cities have seen a steady rise in the number of new houses in five years and old houses in over 20 years。
The reason for this is that the new house, which has been in a state of emergency for more than 20 years, has been designed to improve its quality
One is the relatively low gross price of old houses relative to new ones, which is particularly suitable for immediate demand, and the low gross price in the market, which can make people less risked and more vulnerable to purchase costs
The second is that some old houses have school district attributes that are particularly suitable for families with degree needs。
Three is policy. At the national level: renovation of old neighbourhoods as an important element of a new model for future real estate development, or its conversion or demolition, can significantly increase the value of old houses。
Fourth is that old premises are often well-equipped and accessible, such as transportation, medical care, business, etc., especially for older persons。
It has to be said that, as the market enters the flooring phase, the three major shifts in the market actually return to the very nature of residence, and the concept of a permanent and live-in home is deeply rooted, and many people are pleased with such a virtuous shift. # the graphic author's return to growth incentive program #
