For ordinary buyers, the most difficult thing to do is to analyse the price increases and falls。
Imagine: who could bear it if they had just bought a house at a high price and the price fell
On the other hand, who would be unhappy if they had just bought a house at a high price, and the price had risen
It's just that it's hard for ordinary buyers to predict a rise or fall in housing prices because of a lack of professional knowledge and data analysis
In that light, it became indispensable to listen to the experts。
House price 2026
No, in recent days, an expert has predicted that “in 2026, the house price will be four to five times that of last year!”
And as soon as this prophecy appeared, it started to blow up the whole world, and it led to people's speculation, “is it true or not?”
In this regard, it seems to him that even in the expert's prediction, we need to look rationally at it
In fact, with regard to the expert's predictions, the following five social realities are the strongest proof
1. Declining demand
Prior to that, the rapid growth of our real estate market was due to the continuing high demand。
First, our population base is large and the demographic dividend persists
Second, the number of marriages is high and the demand for matrimonial accommodation is high
In addition, the number of children and the demand for housing in school districts are high
Finally, urbanization is developing rapidly and helping to develop real estate。
It is the existence of these rigid demand that drives the continued rise in housing prices and the rapid growth of the real estate market。
Just now
To date, these rigid demands are diminishing。
According to ministry of civil affairs data, the number of marriages and births in the country remains bleak. Our fertility rate is the second lowest in the world。
And look at the older men left behind in the tremors. During the spring season, the young writer painted videos that were not married in his 30s。
According to the most recent statistics, the urbanization of the country has almost been completed, which means that real estate will lose much of its support。
These phenomena are a reflection of the continuous weakening of our rigid demand for houses and the collapse of the cliff, which can't be stopped
2. Excess stock in the building market
According to the latest statistics, an average of 4. 2 million m2 per month was added in 2025. This does not include ongoing stocks that have been opened for sale or land that has not been opened for construction。
At the same time, the national de-assembly cycle is approximately 29. 4 months, which corresponds to an inventory level that can meet nearly two and a half years of sales requirements。
Despite the country's policy of buying good housing, the de-inventory cycle of the overall real estate market is still longer and the pressure for inventory digestion is not encouraging。
In a situation where the market stock is so heavy, it is difficult to “stabilize” housing prices, let alone raise them。
Employment
3. Poor employment environment
If you ask everyone, "when will you consider buying a house?"
I'm sure everyone will say, "of course there's a steady income!"
Look at the world of work now! Kyoto, known as brother company, has begun to retrench people, let alone other companies
So how bad is the job environment
Who is willing to buy a house when income stability cannot be guaranteed
How can the price of a house be raised when no one buys it
Land finance
4. Land fiscal transformation
Until then, land finance could be described as a major source of support for the state and local governments。
It is the constant flow of land finance that enables the state and local governments to develop rapidly and the population to live a good life。
To date, with the restructuring of the economic structure of the state and local governments, the share of land finances has become increasingly low, thus reducing the dependence of the state and local governments on land finances。
In this context, the state and local governments are less and less committed to land finance, so that high prices of land will become scarce and housing prices will naturally fall。
Housing investment
5. Loss of investment attributes
In addition to self-individing, the main purpose of buying a house is to invest
When the buildings were hot, the renters were almost completely mad, and they even had groups set up to fire their houses, buy the next building directly and then sell it slowly at higher prices。
It's just that the real situation is that the house has returned to its very nature, and the investment properties have disappeared! Now, who pays to fire the house, it'll be a joke。
Price stability
In all respects, the “sliding back” in 2026 remains at the core of the country's work, with the possibility of small increases。
As for the expert's prediction, j. I. Thought it was almost zero. After all, objective conditions were not allowed
So, with this prophecies of experts, you just have to listen to it as a joke
Finally, what do you think of the prediction that “in 2026 the house price will be four to five times that of last year”
