In recent days, the national development and reform commission has issued a circular decision to reduce the price of gas and diesel fuel by 190 and 180 yuan per ton, respectively, and to measure retail prices of 90 gasoline and 0 diesel fuel. The national average has been reduced by 0. 14 and 0. 15 per litre, respectively, and the adjustment was made at 2400 hours on 14 november. As a result, oil prices have experienced an unprecedented “eight-time fall”
Looking back at the last eight oil price adjustments in the country, they were actually introduced on 21 july of this year. In subsequent oil price adjustments, the adjustment was largely monthly. In october, we also made two oil price reductions, on 17 october and 31 october, respectively。
Over the past two years, domestic oil prices have been adjusted more frequently, owing on the one hand to large fluctuations in international crude oil prices and, on the other hand, to a policy of reform of the new oil price regime, promulgated in late march last year, significantly reducing the adjustment cycle for oil prices and the price adjustment restrictions。
The successive fall in oil prices is bound to be both positive and negative. However, in the case of china, the fall in oil prices was more positive than negative。
First, oil prices fall, and “oil-consuming” households, mainly by air and shipping, will be the largest beneficiaries. People who own private cars will also be among the main beneficiaries。
According to the relevant data, if private cars travel 1,000 kilometres per month and consume 8 litres of oil for 100 kilometres, the cost of petrol is approximately $89 per month. Thus, the steady downward adjustment in oil prices is also, in essence, an important initiative for the benefit of the population。
Moreover, from the strategic point of view of the state, the sharp drop in oil prices is indeed beneficial to our overall development. For the time being, china is a major consumer of oil, and its external dependency has reached over 60 per cent. It is clear that our economy can be transformed and developed by taking advantage of the opportunity offered by the setback in oil prices to substantially reserve oil, significantly reducing the cost of our combined fuel consumption while at the same time easing inflationary pressure。
However, anything has both advantages and disadvantages. If it is necessary to address the downside of oil prices, none of the most affected are oil refineries. In response, the overall profits of the relevant refining firms will also be significantly reduced in the context of the continuing fall in oil prices。
In response to the large fluctuations in oil prices in recent months, i believe that it is no accident that oil prices continue to fall sharply, behind them or a game of crude oil players。
According to data, at the end of june this year, the international price of crude oil futures reached a maximum of $107. 68, which is also almost close to russia's level of oil prices, which achieves fiscal balance. However, after almost half a year of decline, international crude oil futures prices reached their lowest level in the near future, at $73, with a cumulative decline of over 30 per cent。
At the same time, data indicate that the new york commodity exchange west texas light crude oil and north sea brent crude oil futures contracts, which serve as global crude oil benchmark pricing contracts, are approaching their lowest prices since september 2010。
It is clear that the continued decline in oil prices has had a significant impact on major russian-led energy exporters。
In recent years, european and american countries have adopted policies to sanction the economic development of countries such as russia. Multinationals have also resorted to various measures to counter the russian economy. Among them, massively depressed international crude oil futures prices and boosting the dollar have undoubtedly become powerful means of sanctions against russia。
On the one hand, the united states-dominated core power, by virtue of its hegemony, has kept in its hands the fate of international crude oil prices denominated in dollars. On the other hand, by boosting the dollar, significantly boosting crude oil stocks and boosting the prosperity of industries such as shale oil, the aim was to hit commodity futures prices in the long run。
It is clear that, under multiple pressures, the international price of crude oil futures is also difficult to escape from the fate of a significant setback. Thus, russia is an important exporter of energy, and crude oil is the core source of local subsistence. As a result, the sharp fall in oil prices foresaw a substantial reduction in government budget revenues and a lack of balance in its fiscal balance. It can be expected that, once the international price of crude oil in futures has resurfaced, there will be an extremely severe impact on the russian economy and even a threat of collapse。
The downward trend in the current trend in international crude oil futures prices remains quite evident. As the price of crude oil approaches the 70-dollar threshold, it may also trigger consideration by the organization of petroleum exporting countries (opec) of adjusting crude oil production for the purpose of stabilizing international oil prices。
However, i believe that the continued decline in oil prices has been unexpected to the market. Once the international price of crude oil futures has again fallen significantly, even at the 70 or 60-dollar integer level, it could be a fatal blow for some important energy exporters。
Guo shiliangbo, personal mailbox, guoshiliangbo@163. Com guo xiang, prominent financial and economic commentator, financial columnist, best trader in the 2013 fox search year. Expert in daily economic news, every think tank, forward-looking economist, guest reviewer of china venture, an authoritative academic journal at the national level. Meanwhile, the author was invited to guangdong..
Responsible editor: zhang dei
