Tin terminals are widely used, mainly downstream, for integrated circuits, white household electricity, photovoltaic welding bands, tin plating, tablet glass, cars, lead batteries, etc。
The market considers that there is considerable uncertainty as to whether the cut-off policy in wa state in myanmar will land. Shellers were told that the domestic market was wary of the cut-off and that since 17 april, tin traders, smelters, etc. In yunnan had been involved in tin purchases。
The tin chapter, for its part, stated that “the global supply of raw materials is in doubt in the long run”
Sudden tin cutout in wa state, myanmar
On 15 april, the wa state central economic planning commission of myanmar issued a circular that all mining and excavations of mineral resources would be suspended after 1 august this year, and that companies still engaged in mining would be given three months to finish their work if the contract did not expire。
On 17 april, as a result of the news, a 12 per cent increase was recorded in the national nisuke-oxium noonboard. On 18 april, the main contract for tin continued to rise, reaching 10 per cent daily。
Why disturb the market? Shell economic journalists have learned that the core lies in myanmar's position in the supply of our tin resources。
“myanmar remains the most important importer of tin concentrate in china.” on 17 april, the tin branch of the china non-ferrous metal industry association indicated that myanmar was the main source of imports of tin concentrate and that, as a result of the gradual increase in the share of imports from africa and other countries in south-east asia over the past three years, our total imports of metals from myanmar had fallen from over 75 per cent in 2020 to around 50 per cent in 2022。
Shanghai's color-net tin analyst, guangcheng, told shell financialists that in 2022, about 1873 million tons of tin concentrate were imported from myanmar, accounting for 76. 82 per cent of the total volume of tin minerals imported throughout the year, and about one third of our total supply of tin mines in 2022。
According to wigand futures research, myanmar began to build a large number of mining plants after political stabilization in wa state in 2011, rapidly becoming the third largest tin mining country worldwide, offsetting the decline in production in china and indonesia. However, with the depletion of tin resources, myanmar's global share of tin minerals fell from a high of 21 per cent in 2017 to 11 per cent in 2021。
The wa region, which released the news of the shutdown, is myanmar's leading tin mining area. According to huaan futures, the volume of tin minerals in the wa region is the dominant factor determining the marginal change of tin mines in myanmar。
"the end-use of tin is extensive." the ancient strength indicates that integrated circuits, white home electricity, photovoltaic welding bands, tin plating, tablet glass, cars, lead batteries, etc. Are the main downstream applications of tin。
Small metal plates are on the market
What will be the impact of the winding-down policy in the wa state of myanmar on global supply, particularly domestic tin? It is argued that, in terms of the content of the document alone, the policy, once implemented, is expected to have a greater impact, taking into account the shortfall in domestic tin resource production, which, if not imported, is difficult to meet。
The world's largest tin producer, tin share (000960. Sz), stated to shell bankers on 18 april that there was considerable uncertainty about the successful implementation of the wa state cut-off policy in myanmar, that only notifications were disclosed and no implementation plan was in place, and that the impact on the company could not be accurately assessed and that the company's production operations were now normal。
Shell economics journalists have learned that tin shares have been among the world's highest since 2005, with the domestic market share of corporate tin metals being 47. 78 per cent and the global market share 22. 54 per cent in 2022。
The tungsten industry (002378. Sz) also stated to the media on 18 april that the by-products of the company tungsten mine were mainly tin concentrates and copper concentrates, that the company sold nearly 100 per cent of the tin concentrates and that “the company was largely able to extract by-products”。
On 18 april, on the investor interface, a number of mining and metal listed companies were asked whether they were involved in tin operations and the effects of the cessation of production in wa state, myanmar. The prices of small metal plates such as tin shares, tungsten, sanctuary material (603663. Sh), chinese tungsten, tungsten (000657. Sz), and platinum (600459. Sh) were raised by 6 per cent。
According to market research, the domestic market is aware of this cut-off, and since 17 april there have been moves by tin resource traders, smelters, etc. In yunnan。
“there is no doubt that the global supply of raw materials is in short supply.” according to the tin chapter, myanmar's production of tin concentrate is on the decline in terms of current mining and exploration, and this year there has been no local government dumping, regardless of whether or not the policy has landed and how far it has been implemented, and the contribution of new tin projects and production in production in myanmar over the next three years will not compensate for the decline。
The tin shares similarly suggest that tin as a rare metal, low crust content, limited available resources, and traditional tin-producing areas are affected by varying degrees of decline in grade, rising human and mining costs, with limited increases in production in major supplier countries in recent years. Owing to the relatively concentrated distribution and supply of tin resources, barriers to industry entry and the chronic underinvestment of industry capital in recent years as a result of macro-environment and regional conflicts, the likelihood of production in the short term for new projects currently in production is low and mining is unlikely to grow in the short to medium term。
However, there is uncertainty as to whether the limited production in wa state in myanmar will land。
In view of the fact that myanmar's wa state tin export earnings are one of the main sources of local fiscal revenue, market opinion suggests that there is a relatively low probability that the wa state will actually implement a cut-off policy after 1 august, and that the industry's tendency is to expect that myanmar's wa state tin mine will be exported or will remain in normal condition at least from april to june。
It was also suggested that, given the fact that the central documents at the highest level in wa state were not yet conclusive, the implementation of the policy would need to be followed up further and that the short-term price of tin would probably not support a long-term rise, as demand had not yet recovered。
In the 2022 annual report, the tin shares noted that welding remains the largest sector in the breakdown, and that domestic consumption of tin is expected to increase as the country's incentives for residential consumption increase. Of these, the demand for consumer electrotin is expected to return to warming in 2023 after a weak state, and domestic electricity consumption of tin is expected to improve as domestic real estate policy is optimized and implemented。
In addition, the light-voltaic capacity will continue to show a steady high growth trend in the coming years, accompanied by significant growth in electro-tin consumption in automobiles driven by motorized intelligence, and the tin sector shares are expected to continue to open up new growth space for ourlding in the future in the context of clean energy and industrial adjustments。
The new kyoto shell financial reporter, joo yi, editor, chen li
