“shanghai has adjusted the general commodity housing standard to include more housing sources in the system, thereby encouraging all categories of home buyers to enter the market actively.” researchers at a real estate research institute in shanghai jumped to the press saying that market conditions were better, that the pressure on banks in the first-line cities was released, and that the downward pressure on housing prices had also decreased。
Indeed, the gradual release of policies such as the lifting of restrictions on purchases and the easing of credit has led to lower entry thresholds for improved demand in front-line cities, which has accelerated the pace of entry, to some extent stimulating the exchange of first-line urban buildings, leading to a slight decline in stocks. However, a sharp leap forward suggests that, despite the ongoing implementation of a series of regulatory measures to boost the turnover in the city, the possibility of easing the purchase restrictions in the first-line cities during the year remains low。
First-line urban housing prices are falling
According to a report issued by the shanghai institute of real estate research on 17 november 2014, in october 2014, 2. 93 million square metres were added to the supply area of new commercial housing in the first-line cities, and 3. 28 million square metres were traded, showing a market relationship of less than demand and supply; stock of new residential housing was reduced by 0. 9 per cent compared to the previous 36. 7 per cent. This means that for the first time in nearly nine months, there has been a decline in the ring comparison of urban banks。
It is worth noting that in october 2014, the average commercialized price of new commercial housing in front-line cities was 22368 yuan/m2, representing a decrease of $1168/m2 compared to september, a decrease of 5. 0 per cent in the ring, or 6. 9 per cent over the same period。
In terms of average prices for the sale of new dwellings in the cities, the average prices of new commercial dwellings in the four cities of the “northwards and deeps” were $24282 per square metre, 27554 per square metre, $14332 per square metre and $22816 per square metre, with an increase of 10. 1 per cent, -0. 3 per cent, -6. 7 per cent and -0. 4 per cent, respectively, compared with 1. 8 per cent, 10. 2 per cent, 8. 8 per cent and -4. 1 per cent, respectively。
In response, it was argued that since september, high-end projects at the front-line cities had been in a better state of business, raising the average price for residential sales, but that normal adjustments had been made in october and had declined. However, monitoring data since 2010 indicate that the prices of front-line urban housing are still in high shock。
30% increase in the trade ring
It is worth noting that in october 2014, the first-line urban stock of commercial dwellings (second-hand houses) was 3. 06 million square metres, representing an increase of 15. 2 per cent in the ring, a decrease of 21. 3 per cent over the same period, of which shanghai had the largest increase of 32. 3 per cent。
“with the adjustment of the general housing standard, the share of ordinary-commodity dwellings in the shanghai real estate trading market has increased significantly.” according to studies by relevant institutions, in the used house market, the share of ordinary housing transactions in shanghai increased from 79. 3 per cent to 88. 6 per cent, from 75 per cent to 82. 8 per cent in the inner ring, from 78. 5 per cent to 89. 3 per cent in the internal and external ring and from 81. 6 per cent to 89. 9 per cent outside the outer ring, with the largest increase, to 10. 8 per cent。
In response, shanghai i loved chen yap, the minister of markets, who told journalists that, under the new policy on mortgages and the new policy on public reserves, only ordinary homes would benefit from policy preferences, but that the cost of housing transactions in the shanghai market would decrease as standards changed. At the same time, in line with the current new policy on mortgages, the increased willingness to enter the market for part of the demand due to the availability of second-rate mortgages for ordinary dwellings has also increased the confidence of home buyers in the late-rise market and has contributed to a steady recovery in the turnover of second-hand houses。
Selling land or breaking $300 billion
Indeed, a number of high-level housing companies recently contacted by the daily securities journal report believe that the real estate market will be more optimistic in 2015 than this year, which stems from the implementation of a series of adjustment policies such as the lifting of restrictions on purchases, the easing of credit, and the adjustment of policies to release improved demand for sex。
But despite this, as the steep leap has shown, first-line cities will not be untying in the course of the year, nor will the top of the above-mentioned housing companies believe that first-line cities will be eliminated. “for the time being, first-line cities will not be easily untying, but (first-line cities) remain relatively low-risk markets.” a high-level housing firm revealed to the daily securities newspaper that a faster rate of de-stocking could be achieved in front-line cities than in overstocked cities。
With this in mind, the chilling mood at the site began to change at the end of october this year. According to statistics from the ministry of research on the market of china's real estates, from 1 november to 16 november, the top 20 housing companies spent $24,886 million on land, the highest in nearly eight months, and there has been a marked increase in the number of bottom-to-floor operations。
According to another set of data from the ministry of research on the market of china's estates, as at 16 november, the total value of residential land in the four cities of the “northwards deep” was $278. 9 billion, breaking the historical record created in 2013 ahead of schedule and is expected to exceed $300 billion for the first time in the year. In terms of floor prices, as at 16 november, the average floor price of 185 first-line cities had reached $11228 per square metre, an increase of 48 per cent over the same period。
In response, according to zhang daewei, the chief analyst of china's original estates, who had previously left land behind because he had gone to stock, and who had recently started to lower land prices in some cities, together with the overloading of the rescue policy, were likely to be more aggressive in the cities。
Responsible editor: zhang dei
