On 29 september, the spot price of steel rose significantly, with a 240/ton increase in the price of steel with a screwdriver. While recent policy gains are expected to continue fermenting, market sentiment is high, the current pattern of supply and demand in the steel market is not changing much, and high-priced resources are traded relatively well, and steel prices are rising later...
I. Analysis of the multiple factors
There's a positive signal that the building manager has announced an increase
Following the recent issuance of a number of heavy housing policies, there has been a steady increase in the number of premium and price increases in the real estate market. On 28 september, zhengzhou's first floor governor announced that he would increase the price of the house as a whole by 2 per cent (approximately $300/m2) from 2400 hours on 30 september 2024. In addition, on 26 september, a “pricing plan” was published for several urban projects under zong zong zong zong zong zong zon. Earlier, chengdu had sent a letter from a real estate company announcing a 2 per cent increase in the unit price of all residential items sold. At present, under a range of policy dividends, price increases and price-preservation strategies are designed to stimulate potential buyers to make decisions as quickly as possible, while reflecting developers ' confidence in market warming. The real estate sector received positive signals to boost market confidence and improve steel price trends。
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The central bank is doing $182 billion in repurchases today
The central bank conducted a reverse buy-back operation today of $182 billion for a seven-day period, with a winning rate of 1. 5 per cent compared to 1. 70 per cent. As the main policy interest rate, the seven-day reverse buyback interest rate was adjusted for the second time in two months, and the sharper cuts reflected the central bank’s determination to counter-cyclical monetary policy; a sharper reduction in financing costs would directly stimulate consumption and investment demand, address effective demand shortfalls, and boost economic growth in the four quarters. Looking to the future, the market believes that the easing of the financial landscape will continue until after the national day. In addition, the market expected a downward adjustment in policy rates to boost market confidence and improve steel price trends。
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3. Pce inflation in the united states was close to the fed's target level in august, with a significant decline in interest rates expected to rise again. Wen
The overall pce price index in the united states increased by 2. 2 per cent in august, with an expected 2. 3 per cent and a front value of 2. 5 per cent, marking another step towards the 2 per cent inflation target, the lowest level since february 2021. The pce round rose by 0. 1 per cent in august, in line with market expectations. With the release of the data, the market is expected to warm up with a significant reduction in future interest rates. Interest rate futures traders believe that the fed is slightly more likely to reduce 50 basis points in november than 25 basis points. The fed’s substantial interest rate decline is expected to increase again, and domestic policy stimulus is expected to continue to improve steel prices。
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Ii. Today's steel market
1. The spot market
Today, the domestic steel market has increased significantly, with relatively normal turnover。
Steel plant price increases
According to incomplete statistics, today there are 17 steel plants that have increased the price of materials to 20-240/t. Specifically:
1. Long treatment of steel: an increase of $110 per ton in the price of screws, threads and screws。
Changjiang: an increase of $150 per ton for screws and screws。
3. Inner mongolia: the price of threads, threads and screws was increased by 140-160 yuan/t。
Jiangsunan steel: screw price up by 110 yuan/t。
5. Mountain steel: screw price increase of $240 per ton。
6. Twirling of new steel: an upward adjustment of $80/ton for screws, threads and screws。
7. Shanxi high: an increase of $100 per ton in the price of screws, threads and screws。
8. Selenium steel: screw price increase of 180 yuan/t。
9. Guangdong kim shaolan: an increase of $150 per ton in the price of screws, threads and screws。
10. Guangxi gui cui: an increase of $150 per ton in the price of screws and screws。
11. Steel: building materials at plant prices increased by $180-220 per ton。
12. Shaan west steel group: construction steel price increase of $150/ton。
Sun zhong zing, shanxi: an increase of $100/t; an increase of $50/t。
14. Guiwan steel: an increase of $100 per ton in the price of screws, threads and screws。
15. Six ans: an increase of $180 per ton in the price of screws, threads and screws。
Jinnan shanxi: an increase of $40/t; an increase of $20/t。
17. Henanji source: an increase of $120 per ton in the price of screws, threads and screws。
These adjustments include taxes。
Iii. Original fuel market
Imported mines today: the market for mainstream imports of iron ore is operating at more expensive prices. Of course, iron ore supply pressure is still high, at the demand end, with the recovery of steel plant profits accelerating with the rebound of finished materials, and daily average iron and water production and steel production rising in small part of the day. It is now expected that pre-saving prices will operate in a more aggressive manner, that they will rise at a high or limited level, when they are suppressed at the basic level, and that they are expected to be dominated by regional shocks。
Today's coke: coke prices are operating at a high level, and the third round is essentially falling. Charcoal was raised three times in a row, driving up the mood in the coke market, with some of the coke being sold with a high degree of intensity; and in view of the current relatively good quality of coke, it was expected that the pre-coated coke spot would operate with a steady and post-coated coke spot。
Waste steel today: several more 10-50. As the demand for scrap steel continues to be released as the prices of finished materials rise, but the waste steel resources remain tight, with some bases indicating difficulties in receiving it; at present, the waste steel has become less expensive than iron and water in the recent past, and there is still a need to refill some steel plants on the eve of the fourth of july, with the possibility that the waste steel will operate in a more robust manner, and that the scrap steel will operate in a more stable manner。
Steel today: on september 29th, tangshan moved the appung fong resource out of the factory with a tax increase of 20 yuan/t. The price of steel in the country has increased in broad bands, and the price of finished materials has increased, and the price of steel in the pre-decorated steel is expected to operate in favour of the pre-decorated steel price and in the post-decorated steel or inter-temporal shock。
Iv. The steel-popping perspective
Today, the spot price of steel is significantly higher, with an increase of 240/t. On the supply side, the capacity utilization of high furnaces, the capacity utilization of electric furnaces and the production of steel have increased; on the sub-generic side, there has been a marked increase in the production of screws and the production of heat rolls continues to fall. On the demand side, sectoral stimulus policies such as central banks have been effective in improving market expectations, releasing demand during the season and strong demand for steel. In terms of stocks, the total stock of steel is continuously demined, the social bank is down sharply, and the plant's bank is being increased and lowered, with a marked decrease in the stock of screws. With regard to raw fuel, the increase in daily average iron water production has increased slightly as the spot price of steel has improved and profits of steel plants have recovered, and the price of iron ore and scrap steel has risen significantly in recent days. Today's third round of coke has basically landed, and steel costs have increased. At present, supply and demand patterns in the steel market have not changed much, but with domestic policy gains, macro-magic sentiment has grown and optimism has led to a sharp rise in steel prices. It is important to note that there is a long time lag in demand improvements to be brought about by good policy, that the current high-priced resources are traded relatively generally and that, as the profits of steel plants improve, the subsequent supply picks up at or faster than demand. Taken together, in the context of higher domestic policy expectations and rising market sentiment, attention should also be focused on steel plant production and downstream demand performance; steel prices are expected to operate at a pre-national day peak, steel prices are projected to operate at narrow concussions, steel prices are expected to rise at a later or lower rate of 60-100。
Information references: casinos, securities times, west benn, lange, my steel, etc。
