In the last week, the above-listed index rebounded rapidly to over 4,000 points. Despite disturbances in the outer geologic situation, the market reaction has gradually become dissensitized, highlighting the resilience of a。
According to multiple vouchers, signs of a stronger domestic economy are being validated and the rebound continues. In the face of the continuing uncertainty of the external environment, investors are less concerned with the incomprehensible peripheral variables than with the proactive indentation to seize the structural opportunities for certainty。
Markets are becoming less sensitive to external disturbances
According to the wind data, as of 17 april, the previous week had seen a cumulative increase of 1. 64 per cent in the index, with a deep indication of a cumulative increase of 4. 02 per cent, a cumulative increase of 6. 65 per cent for the board, a cumulative increase of 3. 07 per cent for the medium card 500 index, a cumulative increase of 3. 87 per cent for the medium card 1000 index and a relative improvement in the overall performance of small and medium stock stocks。
The a stock market has continued to be active this week, with a daily average of approximately 2. 36 trillion yuan and a 17-day turnover of 2. 45 trillion yuan, making it a new high this week。
By industry, 25 of the 31 industries at the shinwan level have risen this week, with communications, electronics and electrical appliances showing cumulative increases of 8. 4 per cent, 5. 95 per cent and 4. 77 per cent, respectively, while the performance of the plates, such as coal, food beverages and petrochemicals, has been relatively stressed. In terms of financial flows, the week saw a net flow of capital to non-ferrous metals, transport, real estate, banks, etc。
In the case of the recent rebound, the chinese-culture securities argue that this turn of events is not a simple rebound, but a counter-offensive phase, with the core logic being the expected rise in the market for profit repair in the context of the ppi shift。
The financial securities analysis states that the macro-short-term composite index rebounded significantly after the publication of key indicators, such as pmi, ppi and cpi, in march, and the sustainability of domestic economic fundamentals was further validated。
Active indentation in certainty
Although the geographical situation in the middle east remains repetitive, the market has shown a gradual dissension. At the strategic level, multiple coupons have suggested that rather than speculating about when the peripheral situation will ease, the focus should be on the certainty opportunities that can be captured。
“we always seem to be faced with a question for which there is no clear answer: how long will market volatility last?” in its research, the state of tai haitong stated that instead of being entangled in insoluble, it would be better to jump out and focus on the market's own orbit。
According to further analysis, for unit a, the key variables determining the medium-term direction are not geo-events that are difficult to reach stable transaction conclusions in the short term; the core pricing logic of unit a remains internal and fundamental。
In terms of the specific direction of the configuration, quetai haitung believes that the current profitable validation window for a shares is approaching and that the market usually shows a clear financial impact during the performance disclosure period, particularly in april. From january to february, data on the profits of industrial enterprises show that the direction of high profitability growth is mainly focused on the expected resource items benefiting from higher prices, as well as on science and technology and offshore manufacturing, driven by industrial trends. It recommends three main lines of attention: first, finance, with a focus on banking, non-silver, etc.; second, technology manufacturing and energy transformation, with a focus on electricity equipment and new energy vehicles, semiconductors, communications equipment, and general chinese interconnection; and third, domestic demand value, with a focus on building materials, construction and hotels, clothing, aviation, etc., related to urban renewal。
In the same vein, national securities are more concerned than the volatility of short-term asset prices about who can maintain stable production, stable delivery and relatively manageable costs in an environment of repeated disturbance of the external order。
The relative certainty of chinese manufacturing is becoming increasingly evident. In particular, the gesellschaftsprüfer believes that the reorientation of chinese manufacturing is revalued and may be reflected in an increase in the valuation of stable supply capacity: the combined resilience of the chinese economy is further recognized in the current round of shocks in terms of the dimensions of energy security, substitution capacity, industrial chain integrity and end-demand suitability. Both the export of new energy solutions to south-east asia and the continuation of parts of japan and korea’s energy-sensitive industries point to the same judgement: china’s manufacturing industry is reshaping a new pattern of industrial division。
The medium- and long-term trends are positive
Looking to the post-market, many agencies are optimistic about the medium- and long-term movement of unit a, with the trend towards a more fundamental shift being progressively supported by data。
In the short term, the situation in the middle east is in a state of disarray, the fragile balance is likely to be broken again, and markets are still subject to repeated fluctuations. “however, from a medium-term perspective, it may not be likely that geo-conflicts will evolve in a direction that is completely out of control, or even trigger the typical global stagnation and overall recession.”
The eastern securities study concluded that risk preference repair was still on the way and that the shock caused by external disturbances remained a good opportunity for low layout. At present, external emotional disturbances have weakened, internal core logics, such as quarterly performance certification, medium- and long-term financial entry, and risk preference for recovery-driven rebounds continued in april。
A similar view was expressed in the outlook for the second quarter of china, where policy support and upward industry trends would be relatively good for industries that might be at the bottom of a fast-adjusted season. Policies such as sti and anti-infiltration are clearly directed towards science and technology growth and part of the cycle industry; the continued growth of ai demand has led to an increase in the hardware industry and high commodity prices such as petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals and chemicals, which are also driving the cycle industry. (reporter gordo)
