On thursday, the global financial markets were volatile, ranging from united states shares to encrypted currencies, from precious metals to crude oil, and various types of assets were sold “without distinction” and market sentiment collapsed under multiple profit chains。
The first is that encrypted money is being sold in the fall. On thursday, united states stock tailings, bitcoin fell to the vicinity of $63,000, falling 12 per cent in the daytime, a low since october 2023. Since the peak reached last october, the cumulative decline in bitcoin has exceeded 48 per cent, and a series of forced flats has exacerbated the negative feedback cycle of prices。
The u. S. Shares also suffered a serious setback. On that day, the three indices of us equity fell by more than 1 per cent, and despite the long-term perspective of the ai narrative, there has been growing concern among investors in the recent past as to whether the huge capital expenditures of the technology giant will translate into real profits。
Precautionary assets, such as precious metals and crude oil, have also not been spared. At one time, cash and silver fell by more than 20 per cent and real gold by more than 4 per cent. The crude oil market is expected to be affected by weak demand, with both wti and brent futures falling by almost 3 per cent。
“as a rule, crude oil, equity and precious metals should be hedged, with one being procyclical and one countercyclical. But precious metals have increased too much, and now more speculative properties than countercyclical ones, as well as doubts about the ai narrative, the easing of the american-iraq conflict and signs of weakness in the united states economy have resulted in rare overall sales sales.” western securities overseas analyst zhang zane spoke to the interface news。
In particular, analysts noted that the overall sale was driven mainly by three factors。
First of all, ai's foam theory. Alphabet, one of the seven giants of us stock, has recently indicated that corporate capital spending is expected to be as high as $185 billion in 2026 to maintain the ai lead. This large spending scheme raises deep concerns among investors about the return on ai's investment and the logic of the software company's valuation. In his latest study, goldman sachs pointed out that the high valuation of the science and technology unit would face a serious correction if the huge input of ai's expenditures were not translated into the expected acceleration of profits. On thursday, hotgate technology collapsed, with ultra-microcomputers and hyper-facilitys exceeding 8 per cent, microsoft down close to 5 per cent, amazon down by 4 per cent, amd down by 3 per cent, tesla down by 2 per cent and inweida down by 1 per cent。
Second, many of the employment data published in the united states this week are poor, affecting market confidence. According to a report released by the united states automated data processing corporation (adp) on 4 february, only 22,000 jobs were added to the private sector in january, well below market expectations and at a new low since 2021. On 5 january, the challenger retrenchment report, published by challenger gray & christmas, a career consulting firm, reported that in january, the united states company announced 10,8435 staff reductions, up 118 per cent from the same period last year, up from the same period since january 2009, when the united states economy was at the end of its worst recession since the great depression。
On the same day, the united states department of labor released data showing that the number of people who had applied for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week was 231,000, which was higher than expected and forward. The bureau of labour statistics also indicated that the january report on non-farm employment, which had been due to be published on 6 january, would be postponed until 11 january owing to the closure of the government. The uncertainty of this data vacuum further magnifies the pessimism of the market。
The chief economist of navy federal credit union commented: “the recession in recruitment will not end in the short term, which is a clear sign of a decline in economic dynamism.” this fear quickly spread from stock markets to cyclical commodities such as crude oil。
In addition, the fed eagles’ monetary policy is expected to further curb market sentiment. Last friday, united states president donald trump nominated kevin walsh, former federal reserve commissioner, as the next federal reserve chairman, causing a huge fall in precious metals, bitcoin. The most prominent proposition of walsh is a substantial reduction in balance sheet size and a reduction in the rate of return to help the government to borrow cheaply, which helps to restore dollar credit but is fork in precious metals。
However, analysts have stated that to blame the collapse of the current round of us equity, bitcoin, precious metals, the fed eagles’ monetary policy is expected to be a misperception of walsh, and that, in essence, it is either a massive fall or a leverage settlement after excessive speculation that triggers a chain of forced silos to accelerate negative price feedback. While walsh advocated a downscaling of interest rates, the current liquidity environment in the united states and its financial position did not support the implementation of its abbreviated plan at all。
First, the current liquidity environment does not support the abbreviation。
The chief economist of east wu securities stated to the interface news that the current liquidity of the united states dollar was faced with a reverse buy-back of “buffer cushions”, that liquidity tools were being bought back more frequently, and that bank reserves were beginning to be hit as the abbreviations moved forward. It is against this background that last december the fed launched a light-size “extension scale,” the reserve management purchases, to avoid a potential repurchase market liquidity crisis. The opening of the abbreviation immediately after walsh took office, which triggered a liquidity crisis such as the one of 2019, was very detrimental to the smooth implementation of its follow-up policy。
The second is that the abbreviation scale raises long-term interest rates and conflicts with the objective of lowering interest rates to reduce the cost of financing and weakens policy transmission. The increasing interest expenditure of the united states government was an issue that could not be ignored. Snow white, senior deputy director of the eastern ministry of research and development, stated to the interface that large-scale contractions would reduce the demand for united states debt and create a mismatch between supply and demand with the ministry of finance's debt programme, which could boost long-term returns and increase financial risk。
The analysts pointed out that the first consideration for trump's choice of the fed chairman was whether interest rates could be reduced quickly, and if worsh failed to meet that standard, trump did not choose its motivation as the next fed chairman。
In fact, since the latter part of 2025, when he was running for the chairman of the federal reserve, the currency position has clearly changed. This was reflected in his public support for the reduction in interest rates and recommended coordination between the federal reserve and the ministry of finance on the issue of public debt。
In july 2025, during an interview with the united states consumer news and business channel (cnbc), walsh criticized the fed officials for their hesitation in lowering interest rates, claiming that they had undermined their credibility. “i think one of the reasons why president trump publicly pressured the fed — we need institutional change in policy implementation. The fed had a balance problem, and the interest rate reduction was the beginning of the process of correcting the imbalance.” walsh said。
He also stated that the treasury and the fed needed to reach a new agreement, “as in 1951 — when the united states was heavily indebted and the central bank and the treasury were against each other”. If a new agreement is reached, the chairman of the federal reserve and the finance minister can make it clear to the market that “this is our goal for the size of the federal reserve balance sheet”
The majority of the market is of the view that the federal reserve has two interest rate reductions of 25 basis points each this year, the first of which could fall in june。
Financial marketers have suggested that, in the short term, global markets are likely to continue to shock, focusing on the january non-farm data released in the united states next wednesday. If the data fall short of expectations or trigger a new wave of major upheavals。
