The strong global cotton prices, combined with the devaluation of the rupee and the increase in freight costs caused by the western asian war, led the indian cotton association (cai) to reduce cotton imports forecast for 2025/26 by about 300,000 to 4. 7 million packages, which ended in september。
Cai projected cotton imports in 2025/26 to be approximately 4. 7 million bags, down from the 5 million previously projected。
According to caivinay nkotak: “we have reduced our import forecasts and the rupee has depreciated due to international price increases. Imports therefore become more costly. In addition, indian cotton prices are currently relatively stable. As a result, indian cotton prices are lower or evener than the replacement cost of imported cotton.” in addition to increased freight costs, the war has led to longer transport times。
Cai imports are estimated to have increased by 600,000 from 4. 1 million last year. By the end of february, some 3. 6 million cotton packages were expected to arrive in india, and large quantities of cotton were imported by cotton factories and traders using the duty-free policy until the end of december。
Kotak indicated that prospects for indian cotton exports are expected to improve in the future. “if the rupee is depreciated and international prices follow further increases in oil prices, india may have some exports. Owing to geographical advantages, india could export cotton to bangladesh, china, etc. These countries may have to switch to india for immediate demand.”
Cai maintained its projection of 1. 5 million packages of cotton exports for 2025/26, with some 700,000 parcels exported by the end of february。
Cai also increased cotton production projections slightly by 350,000 to 325,500 packs (170 kg each), mainly due to higher than expected production in maharashtra and andhra pradesh. Kotak states that this year maharashtra (especially in the vidalba region), karnataka and trengana cotton production is doing well。
In addition, cai has increased cotton consumption projections for 2025/26 by 1 million to 31. 5 million. As of february 2026, cotton consumption was estimated at 13,125 million bags。
Cai estimated that the cotton stock at the end of 2025/26 was 9. 809 million bags, a decrease of approximately 950,000 bags compared with previous projections。
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