The periodical unit is the most human facet of the a stock market. Three years without opening, three years without opening. In the weather, color, chemicals, steel can raise your life; in the atmosphere, you can fall. Many people are losing money on it for one reason: they don't understand where the atmosphere is。
Today, we set out the three core cycle industries — colored, chemical, steel — in order to tell you when to get in and when to get out。
I. Colored: global pricing, financial attributes + commodity attributes
Representatives of: purple mining, loyang molybdenum industry, jiangxi copper industry, china aluminium industry, tianqi lithium (lithium) industry, chinese amigo cobalt industry (cobalt)
Core logic: colour is a typical global pricing cycle. Its prices are determined by two factors: financial attributes (dollar index, liquidity) and commodity attributes (supply-demand relationship)。
Temporal assessment indicators:
Lme/comex futures prices: copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel, tin are core. Day tracking. Stock level: lme, prior-period inventory. Inventory is low and prices are volatile. United states dollar index: the united states dollar is weak and coloured. Focus on fed monetary policy. Global manufacturing pmi: more than 50 expands, and colour demand is better。
Investment rhythm:
Chemicals: domestic pricing, cost + demand-driven
Representatives of: van hua chemical (mdi), bountiful petrochemicals (refining), helimatic petrochemicals (refining), wallow heiner (coalchemicals), stifling silicon (organ silicon)
Core logic: chemical products are mostly priced domestically and are more affected by domestic supply and demand. Price elasticity depends on two factors: cost support and demand pull。
Temporal assessment indicators:
Price differentials for products: prices and differentials for core varieties such as mdi, pta, ethylene, methanol (product price - feedstock cost). Price differentials increased and profits increased. Work start: industry start-up is a leading indicator of supply constraints. Work start > 80% upwards; number of days in stock: business, social stock. The stock is low and the replenishment needs to be priced. Crude oil prices: oil prices are the cost anchor of the chemical industry. The rise in oil prices has been moderate and the chemical industry has benefited; the price of oil has soared or fell, and the chemical industry is under pressure。
Investment rhythm:
Summary: the cycle is three brothers, each with its own rhythm. The united states dollar and the global pmi, chemical price differentials and start-up rates, steel property and tons of gross steel. You know where the view is, you can make the money in the cyclical stock rise and fall, not in the high point of the cycle。
Are you concerned about the cycle? You think there's color, chemicals, steel, which is closer to the bottom? Let's talk about your judgment。
