I. Opening of the hot spot
The old shareholders of the mix a for many years have a creep in their hearts。
Policies have been put in place to improve the trading system, limit the source of unreasonable lending, guide long-term funds into the field and do everything possible to stabilize the balance. But every time the index improves slightly, there's always a big bill in the air, and it's hard to push it. Many people attribute losses simply to bad behaviour, weak expectations, and never think quietly, and there is a part of the market that can make money by using empty tools。
They can create panic through early coupons, take advantage of the rise and fall of market sentiment, induce the scattered to continue to catch and fall, and complete a full harvest model. It is even more difficult to understand that these indigenous capital, which is endowed with sufficient resources and information advantages, and which should be in common with the capital market as a whole, have been making profits through empty drops。
Countless stockholders are asking whether to simply earn a falling price gap or to hide a deeper pattern by insisting on being an empty local market and cutting off ordinary people
Today, in combination with the exchange’s two-pronged data, the records of the overhauls published in previous years’ regulations, the complete chain of two-way profits has been broken down, without the use of hard-to-understood terminology to separate compliance from malice. This paper does not prejudge the rise or fall of the index, does not recommend any shares, does only an objective market logic combo, and all data is derived from publicly available content and can be easily reconciled。
Ii. Breaking the knowledge gap
The biggest thinking trap in the market is that the vast majority of the scattered people mix all the empty actions, consider them as bad-forwards when they see the blanks, and when they see the coupons, assume that the money is emptying the a shares, the first misperception that must be corrected. The empty tools themselves are part of the design of the system and were not intended to be used for the harvesting of dispersed households. The two are fundamentally different, and the scale of regulation is completely different。
The first error: all the blanks were deliberately on a big plate。
The two-way trading instruments, coupons, stock-to-forwards, equity-to-foresee options, were originally designed to improve the market structure and the risks associated with breaking extremes. The large institutions, with their billions of stocks in their hands, are unlikely to be able to clear themselves at any time. In the event of a change in the external environment, there is pressure on the market to reverse, the risk of an institutional bill-to-branch and the targeting of existing profits are very common wind controls。
This type of pretense, which does not break the board, does not create panic, is used to offset the volatility of the hold, does not affect the overall market, and is an operation that regulations have always allowed. We cannot deny a two-way system of transactions as soon as we see a free list。
The second area of error is that it is also possible to participate fairly in emptying the market, where there are no gaps in instruments。
It is the most unrealistic idea for many to think that the two sides are open to all and that institutions and the diaspora are standing together. According to the latest public statistics of the deep exchange, the market-wide voucher balance is over $21 billion, of which more than 92 per cent are traded by institutions, and the share of bulk vouchers is less than 8 per cent。
The bulk of the source of vouchers is in the hands of large institutions, where it is difficult for ordinary investors to borrow enough; at the same time, institutions can use quantitative process orders to complete transactions in milliseconds, with no way to counterbalance the manual bulk. A two-way trading mechanism, with only one-way more routes for the bulk, falls only passively to bear losses, with natural gaps at the rules level。
The third area of error: the drop is not good for basics, there is no artificial pressure。
Many investors are accustomed to blaming the macro-level environment for each drop, ignoring human factors. Many of the shares did not have any news of profit, performance was steady and the industry had not changed, but there was a sudden outpouring of water and a clustering of discs. Such an unusual trend is the absence of malicious action beyond the scope of the hedge。
The agencies use the monopoly source of vouchers, combined with high-frequency quantification, to repeatedly create short-term fluctuations and disrupt the silo rhythm of the dispersed households. Over the last few years, regulations have been in place to tighten the rules of accommodation, limit stock lending, convert conversions to t+1 and raise the percentage of security in the air, and each adjustment has been to squeeze the space for maliciously empty living。
Thinking about these mistakes, there is no longer a simple emotional view of the market's many games and a more rational view of the ups and downs。
Iii. Competition of new and old markets
The a stock of more than a decade ago, it was only possible to make more money, there were no coupons, there were no blank lists, and all the funds wanted to rise steadily. There was no room for two-way arbitrage at that time, and the agency, in order to make a profit, had to keep pushing up stock prices and generally in the same direction as the diaspora. The rise in behaviors has allowed all people to receive dividends, and the main market line is dominated by a relatively limited amount of shock。
The market environment has undergone fundamental changes as capital markets continue to improve and as two-way trading instruments continue to fall. The old-age logic of unilateralism is no longer applicable, and the new-era markets have seen a completely different game。
The market features of the old cycle:
Without large-scale coupons in the early years, the agency could not afford to borrow them and the only way to make a profit was to lower the layout and raise the stock price. The whole market consensus is to do more, and as soon as it starts, it will get out of the continuum. The decline is more the result of fundamental changes, large-scale overall adjustments and the absence of man-made recurrent shocks. As long as they can hold them, there is an opportunity for profitability, and the phenomenon of frequent harvesting is far less pronounced。
And look at the market environment of the new cycle:
With the spread of the two-way tool, a whole new approach to capital play has emerged in the market. A portion of the short-term speculative capital is no longer dependent on rising stock prices for profit, but rather on volatile arbitrage. Increases can induce multiple coupons, drops can profit from coupons, and crosses can be quantified back and forth。
By contrast, the biggest change in the market today is the absence of stable unilateral practices. The wave could have lasted for months, and now it's going to rise in a few days to throw out, and the concussion becomes normal. The old and new models were replaced and the old idea of stockwork was completely out of hand, which was at the heart of the loss of many old shareholders。
In the past, the decline was a risk; today, it can be a source of profits for a portion of the funds. The logic of the market is completely reversed, and if the present picture is also seen in the old light, it is doomed to continue to trample。
Iv. Dismantling the core pains of investments
From the perspective of the ordinary family, in the current market environment, there are a number of points of pain that cannot be removed and that are also the source of repeated double-directional harvesting。
First, trading patterns are inherently unequal. There is only so much to do, and the fall has no hedges and, once the bulk or the stock is weak, the losses are carried out passively. Institutions can use air-single hedges to stabilize their accounts, which are naturally undefeated. In the long run, the gap widens when the dislodging households constantly consume the principal and make a steady profit from empty funds。
Second, there is a huge time lag in access to information. Industrial research, policy interpretation and changes in the source of vouchers are available to institutions in advance. By the time the news reaches the ordinary part of the family, the layout phase is long over and the entrance to the household is the switchboard. Unjustified sudden drops often result in early allocation of funds from the source of the vouchers, with a sense of dispersion and passive cutting。
Thirdly, human weaknesses are accurately exploited. The vast majority of the scattered households are unable to withstand the shock, and a small fall can be sustained, and a continuous fall can panic and choose to hand over the chips at the lowest point. This was captured by empty funds, which did not need to be massively smashed, but simply to keep the stock price down, grind patience and get a lot of low-priced chips. The habit of chasing up and down coincides with a two-way arbitrage model。
Fourth, the short-term trade trap has spread. Many investors prefer to do short-lines, buy and sell on a daily basis and try to capture small fluctuations. Quantification of short-term traders is the preferred form of short-term transactions, which are repeatedly pushed up in japan to create false sales signals, and frequent operations that only keep paying fees and price differentials, making it difficult to earn money for a year。
Together, these pains create a situation in which accounts shrink even though they do nothing wrong. It is not the practice that is specific to the diaspora, but rather the short-line system, which operates frequently and falls into the pace of the financial design。
Industry data logical endorsement
All points of view are based on publicly available data, without making up information and without prejudging what is happening in the market as a whole。
Data i: the structure of the coupons. The deep-seated exchange regularly discloses transient data, with the proportion of corporate vouchers standing at more than 90 per cent throughout the year, with highly concentrated sources. Over time, regulations have adjusted lending rules to compress unreasonable lending, and there has been a marked fall in the overall size of the coupons over the last year, the cost of maliciously emptying continues to rise, and the number of non-compliant account checks has increased each year。
Data 2: foreign and domestic resource movements. In the past two years, the pace of offshore long-line capital deployment of high-quality domestic assets has accelerated, and long-term foreign investment has focused on the value of enterprises themselves and has not been short-term. Frequent use of coupons for short-term, mostly indigenous, hedge funds does not represent all agencies. A generalization of all institutions is not in itself objective enough。
Data iii: data on cooperation between innovative drug companies abroad. In the first half of the year, the scale of domestic cooperation on innovative medicines out of the sea increased significantly, and a number of indigenous r & d enterprises received large overseas orders and industry fundamentals were steadily rising. The basics of many quality markers continue to improve, while stock prices are spread over a long period of time, behind which there is deliberate suppression of empty funding for valuation。
Data iv: regulatory disposal data. The exchange publishes the list of penalties for unusual transactions on a weekly basis, with pressure lifting, false declarations, and high frequency unusual transactions being the most severe types of penalties. These accounts, which are used to generate short-term fluctuations in the use of quantitative and coupons, have been subject to normalization, although ordinary investors have paid little attention to such publicity。
In terms of industrial fundamentals, many industries in the country have been steadily upgrading, business profitability has continued to improve and the bottom fundamentals of capital markets are not poor. The cross-cutting and recurrent shocks are more the result of short-term capital games and do not equate short-term trends with long-term industrial prospects。
Vi. Trials of treaty
In two directions, for example, we make a clear distinction between compliance and malice, so that we can then identify our own financial intentions。
Positive example: compliance is empty。
A large public fund, holding tens of billions of baskets of stocks, chooses to open stock forward manifests for hedge portfolio back-back risk when the external environment is uncertain. The holding stock would not change, the stock in hand would not be sold to press the plate, and the blank sheet would only be used to offset fluctuations. Once the risks are released, the blanks will be levelled, and the entire journey will not affect a single stock movement, which is what the system wants to do with a hedge effect that only stabilizes the market。
A negative case: malicious arbitrage。
One basic flat stock, with no interest in the news, was borrowed in advance from a large number of vouchers, initially attracted by a small pull up to the wind, and then began to be pooled, and the stock price fell quickly on the everyone's line of loss. In a panic, the crowds cut their meat, and the funds went down to buy the shares back to pay back the source, and the arbitrage was completed in one round. This has been followed by repeated cycles and a prolonged suppression of stock prices, operations that have touched the red line of supervision and have been the subject of major repairs in recent years。
There is also a long-term insinuation, an excellent stock base, a stable industry logic, long-term crediting of funds to suppress stock prices, and a constant pessimism that allows the diaspora to leave slowly. Until the valuation falls to a very low position, empty bills are flat, chips are bought and held for long periods awaiting valuation restoration。
It can be seen by contrast in two cases: compliance, which serves the wind, and maliciously, which serves the arbitrage and sucking, which are different and cannot be confused。
Vii. Interim exclusion in the specific areas
Having seen the logic behind the void, without complaining about the market and adjusting its own way of doing business, the vast majority of pitfalls can be avoided by sharing a stable thinking that is suitable for the general diaspora, without any equity, but only operational principles。
First, abandon frequent short-term transactions and stretch the holding cycle。
There are no flushing tools in the bulk, and short-line fluctuations are all artificial traps. Reducing daily trading operations and extending cycles avoid the shock of quantification and coupons. Institutions are unable to suppress basic high-quality targets for long periods of time, and short-term pressures do not change long-term values, are not driven by short-term emotions and do not fall into harvesting traps。
Second, it avoids the continued high target of the crediting balance。
Regular access to exchange-published coupons data shows that long-term coupons for a particular stock are high, and there is often no reason to jump and do not engage in heavy work. Such targets are susceptible to being suppressed repeatedly by empty funds, consume significant amounts of time and mentalities, and choose a much more secure variety of stable funds and less volatile sources of vouchers。
Third, learn to identify the real causes of the decline and reject emotional mutilation。
After falling stock prices, company announcements and industry news were checked to ascertain whether there was any substantial profit. If it's just an emotional drop, don't sell it in a panic. Many of the drops were just a fake of empty money, which would be repaired after a brief adjustment, with a low level of meat cut, just to give the chips to the opponent。
Fourth, keep up with the optimal pace of the system and understand the market direction。
Over the last few years, regulations have been constantly improving the rules, tightening the rules, checking unusual transactions and narrowing the gap between institutions and the diaspora. The space for malicious acts will only grow smaller, and the system will increasingly protect small and medium-sized investors from excessive pessimism。
Fifthly, there are clear manipulations to report on their own initiative。
In the event of an unusual trend of unprofitable and unwinding, unusual transactions can be reported through official exchange channels. The superintendence carries out checks and checks against irregular accounts, and every report is made in a manner that cleans up the market environment and defends its interests。
This approach does not require complex technologies, but changes in mindsets and habits can significantly reduce losses and stabilize the market for stock games。
Viii. Comprehensive advice
What are the plans for the initial questions to be answered later, for the emptying of local markets and the harvesting of the funds of the diaspora
First, short-term arbitrage, using a two-way tool, to make both the rise and the fall profitable, and to turn the losses from the bump and fall of the family into its own gains
Second tier, medium-term layout, with air-to-air pressure valuations, generating panic to get low-priced, high-quality chips and long-line earnings pending repair
Third, magnifying the market pessimism, slowing the entry of long-line incremental funds and harvesting short-line traders repeatedly in a continuing shock。
The use of empty tools is not wrong in itself, and hedge is an essential mechanism for a mature market, but it remains under high-pressure regulation, free of wind control and malicious intent to create panic. Capital markets want to grow in the long term, without opening up hundreds of millions of small and medium-sized investors, and regulations constantly repair the rules in order to balance and eliminate unreasonable harvests。
Markets will never be perfect, there will be gaps in games, and we cannot change rules, we can change ourselves. Seeing the way money works, putting down the mood of impatience and not rushing, panicking or operating frequently will not be the victims of fluctuations。
The stock market has never been more patient and more disciplined than who can see the short-term rise and fall. To move away from speculative thinking and build on fundamentals and operate over a broad cycle, it is appropriate to have a permanent existence in the general diaspora。
Interactive question: have you ever experienced a sudden drop in stock without space? What, in your view, more adjustment is needed in the market to better protect the diaspora
