Piggy price rebound and policy implications
Rewinding pig prices and policy context
After a four-month downturn, the price of raw pigs finally rebounded in late december 2025, with an increase in the foreign average of three dollars for three months in a row, bringing light to long-lost farmers. It is a matter of concern that the ministry of finance revised and implemented the large county outward incentive policy in december, while the ministry of commerce launched anti-dumping measures for imported pork, and that these twin policies have influenced the continuation of the upward trend in pig prices. Will consumers face higher meat prices? How do farmers choose to add or leave? These issues have become the focus of attention for all parties in the market。
In the first three quarters, the national farmer suffered a general loss of $100-130 per pig, compared to $160-200 per pig. There is now substantial support at the policy level as the price of pigs rises. On 1 december, the ministry of finance revised and implemented the remand out of large county incentive funds management scheme, which provides an incentive for the top 500 to move out of the big county based on the number of transfers, outbounds and outbounds over the last three years, encourages multi-channel awards, direct transfers to the county, and strictly prohibits misappropriation. This policy is of great benefit to the ministry of agriculture, such as sichuan and henan's pig-producing districts, which will receive financial support to optimize production capacity。
The role of policies in pig prices and markets
In addition, on 17 december, the department of commerce imposed an anti-dumping duty on imports of pork and by-products into the european union, while several provinces took measures to tighten the handling of pigs and to replace the “breeding” model with a view to reducing price volatility resulting from cross-regional transport and stabilizing the prices of their main regions. According to zhu jinyong, a researcher at the chinese academy of agricultural sciences, “policy does not push prices directly, but rather instils confidence in the market by stabilizing capacity and controlling imports”
In real terms, on 27 december 2025, the average national price of three foreign pigs was 11. 59-11. 6 yuan per kg, an increase of 0. 1 yuan per kg over 23 december and a three-month increase. However, interregional price differentials were significant, with the south-west region having the highest price of $13. 06 per kg, while the north-east region had the lowest price of $11. 54 per kg, with a difference of more than $1. 50. Positive signals were also received from the futures market, with a collection price of $11588 per ton on 26 december for the futures of the raw pig owners, an increase of $1. 178 per cent over the previous day, reaching a maximum of $11720 per ton. It should be noted, however, that current prices are still about 27 per cent lower than in the same period last year。
Market supply and demand analysis
Changes in supply and demand drive up pig prices
The rise in the price of pigs is largely due to the combined effects of supply and demand. The rise in the price of pigs is attributed to both supply and demand: on the one hand, farmers begin to rise after a long period of loss and, on the other hand, market demand increases as the consumption of festivals approaches. At the same time, the rise in prices has been further driven by the “indentative up-price” strategy。
Farmers ' coping strategies
Farmers are generally faced with problems of “addition or not” and “pressor or not”. The sichuan farmer cao xiao jia's experience was quite representative, as he posted a number of pigs in july at a price of $6. 7 per pound, and prices were expected to rise in the second half of the year, and 500 were added. By november, however, the price had dropped to $5. 7 per pound, and he had been able to opt for an emergency outlet of 2600 in december. The current situation is improving, and farmers are faced with the choice of whether to double-check or out, requiring rational decision-making. Industry experts recommend that farmers be rational, avoid blindness, optimize production capacity, phase out low-yielding pigs, increase their production through genetic breeding and reduce the cost of feed。
Impact of price 03 on consumers
Consumer selection and advice
For consumers, there is no need to worry too much about large short-term increases in pork prices. The national average price of pork is 22. 53 yuan/kg, which is still 19. 1 per cent lower than the same year. Consumers may choose to prepare their goods when prices are relatively low and benefit from preferential prices. For example, in sichuan river oil farmer's market, five flowers were sold at $9 per pound of meat and eight per pound of front and back leg, which was $3-4 less than in the same period last year。
A judgement on future market prospects
The current rise in the price of pigs offers hope to long-lost farmers, but the persistence of pre-spring conditions remains uncertain. Consumers should pay attention to market changes and plan consumption rationally. This is a good time for families planning to pick up gravy or salami. Not only are they able to meet seasonal demand, but they can also avoid minor price increases that may occur before spring. Even if future pork prices fluctuate, their magnitude is expected to be relatively flat, with no significant impact on daily consumption。
