In the real estate market in 2014, the first three quarters of the year were characterized by a continuing decline in the volume of transactions, a reduction in the prices of housing companies and the emergence of a number of corporate bankruptcy and financial crises。
At the start of the fourth quarter, the central bank introduced the “9. 30 new deal for home loans”, a massive easing of mortgages, and for the first time introduced the use of financial derivatives such as mbs to provide commercial banks with credit lines. The market was encouraged by the fact that house prices would rise again。
After the party, however, the cold thinking about the effects of the new deal reminds the market that there is a commercial bank between the central bank’s redefinition of the first suite, its desire to lend leverage to residents’ families, and its intention to stimulate the economy; and that the mbs, a financial derivative of housing, will be a long-term, long-term and difficult to provide more liquidity, and a long-term tool for shifting the risk of the housing bubble。
Co-president zhu zheng zheng zheng, a resident of china, argued that commercial bank mortgages might again run out of funds at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014 or around the spring of 2015, while wanko officials judged that most housing companies would use the sales window for price swaps and would see more floor price reductions in the fourth quarter。
Leveraging in the family sector
Many people in the real estate industry, including the president of huanco and co-president zhu yongbin, agree that the restructuring of the market since this year has been spontaneous and has taken place in a context of high real estate stock and liquidity constraints. The tightening of mortgages by commercial banks is a key factor。
In the first half of this year, commercial banks generally increased their interest rates on mortgages, not only without concessions, but also with varying degrees of upswing, and the speed at which loans are extended indefinitely。
At the same time, employment remained good in 2014 and the household balance sheet was still healthy, the purchasing power of the population did not decline and the room for leverage was greater。
The data show that by the end of 2013, the balance of individual home-purchase loans was 9 trillion dollars, or 15. 8 per cent of GDP, while the balance of household loans of 12 trillion billion, or about 21 per cent of GDP, was at a lower level than the leverage of the foreign household sector。
According to the research department of the world bank, these indicate that the purchasing power of the population is not overdrafted and that the shrinking demand for housing is due more to credit contractions (inflation of interest rates on mortgages and longer lending cycles). For many families, 50-60 per cent down payment and 1. 1 times the mortgage rate may not be available, but 20-30 per cent down payment and 90 per cent below。
In the view of this person, there is a contradiction between the lack of willingness to lend to commercial banks and the fact that there is room to boost economic growth by leveraging the household sector。
With regard to the central bank's new deal's “shout”, the world bank stated that the adjustment of the limited-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-prime-pricing policy would be beneficial。
With the new deal stimulus, improved demand markets improved in september. In september, up to 144 square metres of sales in vanco accounted for approximately 88-89 per cent. This means that more than 144 square metres of houses are better sold. The bank's new deal is a clear profit for those who change homes and supports improved demand。
The bank's report anticipates that the impulse to leverage the household sector will stimulate the real estate market to bottom in the fourth quarter of 2014 or the first quarter of 2015。
The mbs is not so thirsty
In the light of the current intentions of the central bank's new deal, the ability of financial institutions to invest in individual housing loans can be enhanced through mbs or special financial obligations for housing loans, and it is indicated that they should be devoted to increasing initial and improved general self-housing loans。
As of the first half of this year, the balance of private home-purchase loans in the country amounted to 10,74 trillion yuan. If mbs were issued in half, it would be equivalent to the market regaining more than 5 trillion yuan in liquidity, and if subsequent securitization were considered, it would appear that the liquidity problem would be resolved。
According to dante, this is entirely consensual. As a matter of fact, the secondary market for housing mortgages in china has not yet developed, and mbs is merely on paper。
In terms of distribution channels, it is reported that mbs is currently distributed mainly in the inter-bank market, with banks, public funds, large non-bank financial institutions, etc. Attempts to securitize the assets of an exchange are currently not going well, and inter-bank markets and exchanges are more time-consuming。
In addition, in a special environment of high current risk-free interest rates, mbs is constrained by its size due to its long duration and low returns。
“the annual financial gain of 5. 27 per cent, the fiduciary return of 9 per cent, and the mbs assets may be unattractive; the return on assets based on commercial loans of more than five years' duration is 6. 5 per cent, and the returns to investors may be even lower, after deduction of administrative costs.” according to the report of the bank of puhai。
More importantly, to implement mbs, a government-supported financial institution is needed as a “junction” platform. In the united states, such platform functions are carried out by “two rooms”, but the chinese version of “two rooms” is still confined to expert recommendations. In the view of the firming-in research team, mbs and the housing-specific financial debt are very difficult to achieve in the short term and to reduce the high cost of bank financing, and it is not possible to effectively help increase credit lending for housing in the four quarters。
According to dinzu, the united states mbs has been developing for more than 40 years since the 1970s. As a general rule, china's mbs, from policy formulation to implementation by-laws, to business owners and platforms with specialized operations, “it is difficult to get on track for 10 or 8 years”。
According to the world bank, there are two scenarios in the future that may be conducive to the development of the mbs: first, the downgrading of the social risk-free interest rate and the orderly breakdown of rigid payments; and second, the classification of products through financial innovation and the emergence of specialized agencies to support the issuance of the mbs。
The mortgage ran out early next year
Under the 9. 30 new deal, the central bank has reaffirmed that the lower limit of the benchmark for first-rate mortgage lending is a 70% discount. While banks are subject to storage costs under the market for interest rates, a 70% discount rate is almost impossible, it is widely accepted in the industry that the 9-9. 5% discount will be the dominant, and that the introduction of policies will prompt commercial banks to accelerate lending。
Research by economics reporting in the 21st century - flying pipe information fellows has shown that there have been several cases in front-line cities where bank interest rates have been reduced. In beijing, six banks had a discount of 9 per cent; in shenzhen, seven had been reduced to 9. 4-9. 5 per cent。
The new deal has also brought a return to the deal. Over 3 billion new pushes and 8 billion subscriptions were made during vanco xi, much larger than new pushes. This represents an increase of 120 per cent over the previous eleventh year, when over $3 billion was committed. If the september push and the 11th read together, from 9/1 to 10/8, the drive was 29 billion and the subscription was 27 billion. Data is much better。
During the eleventh period, sales throughout the real estate industry were preferable. Vanco believes that most of the major peer subscriptions are higher than in 2013 and should have increased by about twice。
A hot-hot picture of lending easing contrasts sharply with policy lending restrictions and bank lending in the first half of the year. But dinzu believes that the core funding problem has not been resolved, and that the liquidity pressure on banks will not be alleviated by a paper paper from the central bank, the bank, and the board。
Vanco also noted that the return of the deal did not indicate a reversal of the market. The new deal does not reverse the anticipated decline in housing prices, with a marked improvement in sales over the fourth quarter, but housing prices are unlikely to rise, even more will be reduced, the rate and scope of the reduction will be wider and the buyers will be more decisive。
Ding zou concluded that the new deal brought a sales window of only two to four months. Bank funds are currently limited, and by the end of the year the bank will have tightened. In particular, the increase in mortgages in october and november, and the fact that mbs and long-term debt could not be repaid before they could be sold, will continue to run out of silver at the end of the year, which is the greatest constraint of the window period. Perhaps next spring or so, another round of funding constraints。
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