This week's review
On the supply side, 8. 66. 97 million tons of steel varieties were supplied this friday, representing a decrease of 122,000 tons, or 0. 1 per cent, in the roundabout. The current period saw a decline in steel production, with a marked decline in the production of thermal rolls and threads; 13,365,000 tons of steel stock for the current week, a decrease of 11,600 tons for the current week, or 0. 1 per cent for the next week, but changes in the stock of building materials have been divided, the stock of building materials has been maintained and the stock of plates has continued to accumulate. On the consumption side, the consumption rate for the current week for the current five-year cycle was 8,6813,000 tons, of which 2. 7 per cent for construction materials and 1. 7 per cent for board consumption. This friday, a change in the structure of consumption of building materials and plates was distinguished。
Next week
On the supply side, the current low-season demand for steel is more resilient, but the profits of steel plants remain at their current high level, with limited space for overall output falling, screw-lines, the current high-level profits of steel plants for almost two years, higher incentives for steel plant production and space for short-term production to increase; on the inventory side, there is a willingness to refuel in the back-up of prices and a lower-than-anticipated balance overall; on the demand side, the demand for steel remains resilient and continues to rise with the recent news of macro-counter-inner rolls and the cut-off of raw materials ' coke, further stimulating speculative demand。
"major concerns"
1 weather: typhoon 7 this year, “vanthago” (tropical storm class; name in english: francisco), was created on 23 july at 0800 hours in the east of the philippines, and at 1400 hours its centre was situated approximately 1110 kilometres south-east of the zhebian border (21. 8 degrees north, 129. 7 degrees east), with a maximum wind power of 8 levels (18 metres/s). It is expected that “vanth high” will move in a north-westerly direction at a rate of 15 to 20 kilometres per hour and will increase in intensity within 24 hours, with maximum intensity up to tropical storm level or strong tropical storm level (9-10, 23-25 metres/s). On the night of the 24th, it will move into the southern sea of the east sea and approach the coast along the southern part of the zhejiang river to the northern part of fujian, gradually diminishing in intensity。
2 macro/industry: in june, the value added of industries above scale increased by 6. 8 per cent in real terms (the increase in value added is the real rate of increase after price). In the ring comparison, the value added of industries above scale increased by 0. 50 per cent in june over the previous month. Between january and june, the value added of industries above scale increased by 6. 4 per cent over the same period. In june, the sales rate for the products of industrial enterprises above scale was 94. 3 per cent, a decrease of 0. 3 percentage points from year to year; industrial enterprises above and above achieved an export delivery value of 13,67. 6 billion yuan, an increase of 4. 0 per cent in nominal terms over the same period, and in the first half of 2025, investments in national fixed assets (excluding farmers) amounted to 24,865. 4 billion yuan, an increase of 2. 8 per cent from year to year (see note 7 for more details in comparable calibre). Of these, private fixed asset investments decreased by 0. 6 per cent over the same period. After deduction of price factors, fixed-asset investments (excluding farmers) increased by 5. 3 per cent over the same period. In terms of ring comparison, investments in fixed assets (excluding farmers) decreased by 0. 12 per cent in june。
3 & : cement: on 16 july - 22 july, the national cement production stock was 2,7248 million tons this week, a decrease of 2. 08 per cent in the ring ratio and 18. 44 per cent in the year; the direct supply of capital cement was 1. 64 million tons, a decrease of 2. 38 per cent in the ring ratio and an increase of 1. 86 per cent in the year. The cement market is currently characterized by a pattern of “stable and weak infrastructure, deep-seated housing adjustment, and civil diplomacy”. In the short term, demand in north china and east china has either recovered in late july, with rain shifting northward, but the year-round decline in demand is difficult to change; concrete: on 16 july - 22 july, the capacity utilization rate for 506 concrete-laying stations in the country was 7. 04 per cent in a 100-year construction study, a decrease of 0. 22 percentage points in the ring ratio; and 0. 13 percentage points in the same year. 506 concrete mixing stations delivered 1. 495 million units, a decrease of 3. 13 per cent in the roundabouts and 1. 84 per cent in the same period. South and south-west rain was high this week, and rain in east china was reduced, but construction at the site was significantly affected by high-temperature weather, with the overall market turnover declining around the country。
On the supply side, production increased slightly this week, with a cumulative increase of 29,000 tons. In the subregion, the increase is mainly concentrated in the north china, north-west china and south-west and south-central china regions, where the decrease is ahead. In sub-provinces, hebei, xinjiang, anhui and fujian increased production, mainly as a result of the resumption of some steel plants and the increase in screwd steel production. In hubei, sichuan, jiangsu and jiangxi, there has been a small decline in screwd steel production due to the short-term overhaul of individual steel plants and the reconciliation of production between varieties; on the supply side, there has been an increase in cable production this week, which has been reduced by a total of 111,000 tons. In the subregion, the decrease was mainly concentrated in the northern part of china, where supplies decreased by 111,000 tons, while there was a small increase in the central china region, which increased supply by 0. 79 million tons, and a general small adjustment of production in other regions; in the sub-provinces, shanxi province experienced a marked decline of 0. 91 million tons per week, with other regions accounting for small fluctuations. With regard to thermal rolls, production has declined slightly this week, by 365,000 tons per week, while the north-east steel plant line continues to be repaired and production has continued to decline in the near future。
In terms of steel plant stocks, it has continued to decline this week, with a ring ratio of 743,000 tons. In the subregion, with the exception of a slight increase in eastern china, the rest showed a decline. Sub-provinces saw the decline in inventory in sichuan, yunnan and henan ahead; on the cable side, the plant bank was increased by 0. 71 million tons this week from a drop. In the subregion, the north-east and east-china regions registered higher levels of stocks, with an increase of 0. 7 and 0. 64 million tons, respectively, and other regional steel plants with varying degrees of small fluctuations; in the sub-provinces, the increase in the stock of gillin was at the forefront, with an increase of 0. 5 million tons per week. With regard to thermal rolls, there has been a small increase in the plant's interior bank, mainly in the north-east and north-west regions, with market prices continuing to rise last week, a boost in the drive to collect goods downstream, a slowdown in steel plant deliveries as a result of continued price hikes and a small increase in production。
According to mysteel, construction materials, in the case of screwdrivers, show a balance of 0. 74 million tons in the southern region, 14,000 tons in the eastern and northern regions, and 215,000 tons in the seven regions, with the rest showing a balance. In terms of heat rolls, china has 27. 7 million tons in the eastern region, 0. 85 million tons in the southern region and 0. 37 million tons in the northern region, and seven regions, with the exception of china, the north-west and the north-east, show a cumulative pattern。
According to mysteel, the total stock of large varieties this friday was 1336. 5 tons, a decrease of 116,000 tons in the roundabout. Of that total, construction stock was reduced by 357 million tons, or 0. 6 per cent, by rounding; and the stock balance was reduced by 241,000 tons, or 0. 3 per cent. The total stock in the previous period was 1,337. 6 million tons, representing a decrease of 19. 2 million tons, or 0. 1 per cent, in the roundabout. This represents an increase of 25. 3 million tons, or 0. 4 per cent, in the roundabouts of the inventory of building materials, and a decrease of 4. 45 million tons, or 0. 6 per cent, in the roundabouts of the stock of building materials。
[annex: seasonal change in consumption of five species]
