I lost a nail
Broken a piece of hoof
Bad piece of hoof
A good horse is broken
And a good horse
A knight was wounded
A knight was wounded
We lost a fight
A lost battle
A country is dead。
- english folk
Edward lorenzo
Edward lorenz (1917-2008), american atmospheric physicist. In 1963, he submitted to the new york academy of sciences a paper entitled " decisive non-cyclical mobility " , which pointed to the confusion resulting from the calculation of atmospheric dynamics values. Later, in an effort to visualize the theory, he proposed the famous “butterfly effect” — a south american butterfly fanning its wings, which could trigger a tornado in texas。
Early computer
That was 1961, when lorenz was doing a series of calculations on weather forecasts using the computer at that time. Since the computers were very primitive at the time and were slow to calculate, and in order to save time, lorenz moved from the middle of the first calculation to the second calculation. Then he went downstairs for coffee。
Researchers' leisure time
Though hair may not be so thick
When the calculations came out, lorenz was stupid: the results of the second calculations were completely different from the first. The result of the first calculation to the middle segment was 0. 506127, while the computer printed the result was only 0. 506 after the decimal point, and the two calculations showed a one-tenth-thousand error, but it was not expected that one-tenth of that one-thousand error resulted in a total failure. After a careful calculation, lorenz summarized his findings and introduced the famous “mix theory”. According to this theory, fully accurate weather forecasts are not possible, while more accurate weather forecasts are unlikely to last indefinitely, with more than 10 days less credible。
Lorenz also found a “lorentz attraction” or “unusual attraction”, a situation that appeared in its convection prediction model, which, although condensed, had time series that were not static, but were moving on and had non-linear and fractal features。
The strange attraction in the lorenz thesis
It's an odd attraction from 20 seconds of initials
The shape of the attraction is as elusive as a flying butterfly. The first three of the above diagrams are the results observed in different directions, and the x-z picture is the shape of a butterfly; the last one shows its shape in space
Artificial "the odd attraction."
In 1972, lorenz described the uncertainty associated with the phenomenon of confusion as a “seagull effect”, although in a subsequent speech he changed the “seagull effect” to a more poetic “butterfly effect”, which was widely known。
By the 1990s, lorenz had also introduced the theory of “decisive chaos”, arguing that human beings (life) were themselves a non-linear chaos system, and that human heartbeat was in fact non-ruled and unpredictable, and that unforeseeableness was the expression of life; and biological stress was the expression that the muscular system reacted more quickly than the non-mixed system。
According to scientists, the “mixed theory” can be compared to relativity, quantum mechanics, the greatest physics theory of the twentieth century. Quantum mechanics challenge the physical cause and effect of the microworld, while the chaos theory negates the decision-making rapras-type of the macroworld. Butterfly effects have also spread the science of the subject。
It's a documentary from the bbc
The original english language of “mixedness” is chaos, which is meant to be “disordered”, and is the founding god of greek mythology. Coincidentally, in our ancient mythology, the universe was also “mixed” before it opened. The phenomenon to be explained by the chaos theory, as the word "disorder" means - – everything is inherently in a non-linear, non-ruled movement, from which the macro-rules of the functioning of the universe are discovered, as if it were in the midst of confusion. The translation of "discretion" has also become an example of "sandaya"。
The greek mythology of "the dirt god"
The little poems quoted at the beginning are an image of the “butterfly effect” in the social sciences. Who would have thought that a country would die by a screw? At a time when the two countries are competing, any single error can be magnified indefinitely, with a chain effect, owing to unpredictable conditions. However, as an example of the “butterfly effect”, it appears to be one-sided and can be misinterpreted as being the same as the “bones effect”。
The domino effect is like the butterfly effect
The initial little disturbance led to a huge irreversible outcome
In fact, the “butterfly effect” is not a “dependant theory” (so-called charisma) but a distinction with the “bones effect”. The “bones effect” is, in fact, rounded, and each card can be traced back to its cause, and it can be gradually extrapolated from which other cards will be pushed down, and the whole process is traceable; the “butterfly effect” emphasizes the fragmentation and unforeseeable nature of the outcome of a small disturbance, not limited to a situation where a small disturbance is gradually turning into a major collapse, and the process cannot be tracked. Butterfly fanning its wings may lead to a tornado or nothing, we cannot predict. Similarly, we have no idea what will happen in the next few days or years — perhaps the accident caused the death of an important person to cause social unrest; and perhaps the accident quickly subsided without further complications. This randomity of results and this invisible state of “discretion” are the real meaning of the “butterfly effect”。
The “butterfly effect” applies to all dynamic systems, such as the atmosphere, the biosphere, human society ... It makes it clear that in these complex dynamic systems, any minor disturbance, the consequences of which, as the forecast time increases, will be confusing and unpredictable. High sensitivity to disturbances and limited computing techniques are bound to have a ceiling on such forecasts. For example, weather forecasts exceed 10 days, and the results are largely irrelevant。
Forecast analysis of typhoon boroy
But this does not mean that the “mixed system” is completely unpredictable. We cannot predict whether a butterfly will eventually cause a storm, but there is still some regularity in the atmosphere as a whole, and there are observed trends that we can still use to make short-term weather forecasts and longer-term climate forecasts. The larger the scale of the forecast objects we're looking at, the less precision they need, the longer they can be predicted. The weather in a small village for the next few days is difficult to predict, but the climate trends across the country are easy to predict。
There are many areas where the “butterfly effect” (or the “mix theory”) is currently applied. And the presence of the butterfly effect has given rise to numerous conjectures, resulting in a variety of literary works. The famous film butterfly effect (2004) was nominated for the best science-fiction film in 2005 for the saturn award. The famous science fiction novelist liu tsui-hyin also wrote about the history of an air strike in the context of the war in kosovo, when a meteorologist tried to find “sensitive spots” around the world to stop the country from raining。
Butterfly effect poster
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