This week's review
On the supply side, this friday, 8,7860,000 tons of steel varieties were supplied, an increase of 643,000 tons, or 0. 7 per cent, over the roundabout. This week's production of long and plate materials has changed considerably, with a significant decrease in long materials production, mainly due to the short-term overhaul of individual steel mills and the transfer of part of steel water from steel plants to other varieties, resulting in a rebound in the production of the sheet; the total stock of steel on this friday is 1,441. 4 million tons, an increase of 250. 7 million tons per week, or 1. 8 per cent. The total stock of large varieties was maintained on a five-day basis. In terms of the stock structure, the cumulative pressure on stocks this week is mainly reflected in the social bank, which began to go to a small extent; on the consumption side, the weekly consumption of the five large varieties was 8,5299 million tons per week, an increase of 2. 6 per cent: 4. 3 per cent for construction materials and 1. 9 per cent for plates. The increase in the consumption of construction materials in the main steel varieties was more pronounced this friday, while the overall demand for plates showed resilience. Overall, the large steel varieties of this friday are increasing and stocks continue to increase and the basic surface is neutral。
Next week
On the supply side, current demand, owing to its continued seasonal impact, has led to a small decline in production or continued to decline, although thermal rolls, due to better profits and spot liquidity, have increased or continued to increase slightly in the short term, while on the demand side, high-temperature weather has continued to suppress the demand for building steel, but seasonal patterns have shown that the bottom of the demand for building materials is or have emerged and will gradually pick up later; however, demand for manufacturing is still resilient owing to export support. With regard to inventories, the current inventory is either at the end of the build-up cycle or is already at the end of the build-up cycle, and the level of build-up is declining, but short-term build-up pressures still exist and may not be strong for the time being, largely in the face of price drivers. Overall, it will take time for the fundamentals to continue improving, so that it will be difficult for the time being to have a temporary push effect on the price to continue to rise, or to have a weak shock at the bottom of the current period, with attention to the continued improvement of the fundamentals。
"major concerns"
1 weather: from 20 to 26 june, heavy rains and heavy rainfall are expected to occur in parts of eastern qinghai, eastern gansu, north-west and south, in inner mongolia, north-central china, north-east and north-east china, as well as in parts of sichuan basin, west and south of yunnan, central and western guizhou, western guangxi and eastern tibet. Of these, heavy rainfall is expected to occur in the western parts of the sichuan basin, western yunnan, western yunnan and western guangxi, with a particular focus on the western parts of the sichuan basin, western yunnan and northern areas with a capacity of 300 to 400 mm. The maximum hourly rainfall in these areas ranges from 30 to 60 mm, and the area is 70 mm or more。
2 macro: domestic: industrial additions above scale in july: 5. 7 per cent over the same year and 8. 4 per cent over the value of the equipment manufacturing industry; total retail sales of social consumer goods in july: 3. 7 per cent over the same year, 4 per cent over the retail volume of commodities and 58 per cent over the sales of new energy vehicles; total imports and exports of goods in july: 6. 7 per cent over the same year, 5. 5 per cent over the “one-way” countries; lpr quotations: 3. 0 per cent over the same year, 3. 5 per cent over the five-year period, with three months in succession; overseas: united states retail sales data: 0. 5 per cent over the retail ring in july and 0. 3 per cent over the core retail growth, indicating a slowdown in consumption; united states consumer confidence index: drop to 58. 6 in early august and inflation is expected to rise to 4. 9 per cent; german industrial output: 1. 3 per cent over the june ring, the largest decline since october 2024; zew economics index: 25. 1 in august, reflecting increased market concern about economic prospects; us federal policy dynamics: the summary of the july meeting shows that most officials support a temporary drop in interest and concern about inflation risks。
3 &: cement: this week, august 13 - august 19, 2,68. 15 million tons of cement were produced nationwide, 2. 8 per cent ring-to-cycle, 17. 8 per cent year-on-year; 1. 6 million tons of capital cement, 0. 6 per cent ring-to-year, 4. 2 per cent year-on-year; concrete: august 13 - august 19, 100 years of construction research, 6. 86 per cent of the country's 506 concrete-tangling stations were used, 0. 03 per cent of the weekly ring-to-week rate; 0. 18 per cent of the same year. The delivery of 506 concrete mixing stations amounted to 1,373,400 square metres, representing a decrease of 0. 55 per cent in the circle, or 2. 60 per cent in the same period。
According to statistics, screw production continued to decline this week, reducing cumulatively by 58,000 tons. In the subregion, the north-west, east-east, north-east and south-central regions are ahead of the decline, with a slight increase in the south-south and north-central regions. In sub-provinces, the reduction in production is evident in xinjiang, heilongjiang and hunan, owing to the short-term overhaul of individual steel mills and the transfer of some of their iron water to other varieties; a small increase in production in guangdong as a result of the resumption of individual roller production and the proportion of the production of reagent screwd steel; and a small increase in cable production this week, totalling 20. 9 million tons. In the subregion, the increase was mainly concentrated in east china, with supplies increasing by 19,000 tons, while supplies increased by 0. 77 million tons in north china and small adjustments in production in other regions generally; in the provinces, the increase was evident in zhejiang province, where production increased by 15,000 tons per week and production in other regions was dominated by small fluctuations; in the case of heat rolls, production increased significantly this week, by 96,500 tons per week, with a steel plant returning to production in the north-east this week, while production in the rest of the plants remained relatively stable, with little variation。
According to mysteel, there was a small increase in stock at the screw steel plant this week, with an increase of 227,000 tons in ring. In the subregion, the increase in inventories is concentrated mainly in south-central, south-west and south-west regions. In the provinces, sichuan, guangdong and hubei stock increases are ahead of schedule, and there has been a small decrease of 0. 74 million tons in cable storage this week. At the subregional level, the northern china region experienced a decline in stocks of 27,000 tons, with other regional steel plants experiencing varying degrees of small fluctuations; at the provincial level, shanxi was in the forefront, with a reduction of 27,000 tons per week; and, at the level of heat rolls, there was a small decrease in the plant's interior stock this week, mainly in the north-east and east china regions. Market prices have declined slightly this week, and the mood for downstream supplies has become apparent. Direct orders have increased, market sentiment is about to enter the boom season, and production has decreased in the face of a significant increase in production。
According to mysteel, construction materials, in the case of screwdrivers, in seven regions this week, except for the north-west and north-east regions, which account for 0. 31 million and 0. 09 million tons, the rest of the region is in a state of accumulation, of which east china is the region with the largest accumulation of 958 million tons and the heat rolls are in seven regions with the exception of east china, south china and north-east china, which account for 284,000, 30,000 and 0. 91 million tons, respectively。
According to mysteel, the total stock of large varieties was 1. 4104 million tons this week, an increase of 250. 7 million tons, or 1. 8 per cent. This represents an increase of 21. 35 million tons, or 3. 0 per cent, in the roundabouts for building materials; and 372,000 tons, or 0. 5 per cent, in the roundabouts for sheetware. The total stock in the previous period was 1,415. 97 million tons, an increase of 40. 61 million tons, or 3. 0 per cent, of which 36. 44 million tons, or 5. 2 per cent, were added to the inventory of construction materials; and 4. 17 million tons, or 0. 6 per cent, were added to the inventory of sheet matter。
[annex: seasonal change in consumption of five species]
