April 20, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th
Once upon a time, the toilet was "liquid gold" and "hard currency" — a myth of wealth — a box of potholes is better than buying a house, making a more steady profit of wine than stock and house, a million dollars of quota-free cattle, and a price difference for dealers. At the peak, 53 degrees of flying over the ceiling were sold to more than 3,200 bulk bottles, and the whole case was over $4,000. However, since the evening of 16 april 2026, this has been completely over: since the publication of the annual newspaper 2025 in guizhou, for the first time in 25 years there has been a decline in net gains and a decrease of 1. 21 per cent in the profit of 16,8838 million yuan and 4. 53 per cent in net profits. According to the news, the stock price dropped by 4 per cent a day, at a close to $1,400 level, and the wholesale price from the tower went down, breaking the official guide price of $1,499, almost four years higher. The siphons, liquor dealers, dislodges, who have been hoarding alcohol, are now looking at mountain stocks, with hundreds of thousands and millions of assets evaporated overnight, and finally feeling the despair and pain of firing tenants into high places. The 25-year-old maotai super cow city officially came to an end, and the white wine myth that was put on the altar went to dusk。
I. Core conclusion: the text of the four responsibilities and the end of the drugs
It is no accident that the first 25 years of negative growth, price collapses and alcohol hoarders were the inevitable result of a combination of supply and demand reversals, consumption downturns, changes in channels, and bubble bursting. The core conclusion is clear:
1. The historical turning point has been established: 2025 was the first year of negative performance in 25 years since mao tai was put on the market, and the myth marked "forever rise" was completely shattered and 20 years of white wine gold officially ended。
2. A collapse in the price system: the flying pavilion fell from a high point of $3250 to about $1,500, falling by more than 50 per cent, the wholesale price fell the guide price and the distributor "sold a bottle in deficit"。
3. There has been a complete retreat from the alcohol hoarding: 700-800 million bottles of stocks have been capped, homes have been lost in panic, unconnected diskettes have been sold, "grouched" = steady profit has been made" = stocking has been completely depleted。
4. A fundamental reversal of logic: shao tai has returned from "social money, investment" to "consumer" nature, with a significant contraction in government and business consumption, the failure of young people to buy and the collapse of demand。
5. Long-term pains: pipeline reform, foam removal, stock removal will last three to five years, the high-growth era of mao chai is gone, and the white wine industry is entering a deep adjustment period。
Ii. Performance boom: 25 years of growth myth ending, four quarters cliff break down slide
The annual newspaper, the 2025 times, is a "sumlet" written in china's business history
1. Core data: the first double down in 25 years
• collections: $16,8838 million, compared to -121 per cent, which is the first year of negative growth since its listing in 2001。
• net profits: $8,232 million, compared to -453 per cent, with a positive and negative rate of increase and a significant decline in profits。
• cash flows: operating cash flows of $61,522 million, compared to 33. 46 per cent, significantly reduced capacity to pay back。
• four quarters: a single-season base of $40,384 million (-19. 43 per cent), net profit of $17,693 million (-30. 34 per cent) and a direct year-long fall from the cliff。
2. Structure fragmentation: the core is barely stable, the series collapses
• powder wine (flying heavens, etc.): the sum of $146. 5 billion is a modest increase of 0. 39 per cent and barely secures the base plate。
• sausage series: 22,275 million yuan, or 9. 76 per cent; ton prices dropped by 13 per cent, and the core large monolith stand dropped from $2,000 to $700, almost to be cut。
• direct sale of vs wholesale: direct sales accounted for 50 per cent (50. 09 per cent), but wholesale revenue was 12. 05 per cent, with severe pain caused by the switch from new and old channels。
3. Market responses: stock prices, double price of alcohol
• equity prices: on 17 april, they were above 4 per cent, fell by $1,400, fell by almost 8 per cent during the year and market values evaporated over 100 billion。
• liquor prices: flying bulk bottles fell from $2,200 at the beginning of the year to $1570, original boxes fell from $1700 + to $1650, and raw and annual wines jumped all over the water。
• channels: the willingness of distributors to make money falls sharply, the contractual liability falls significantly, and small and medium-sized distributors close their doors and maintain their rights。
Iii. The nightmare of alcohol hoarding: from lying down to losing money, the salooners experience the pain of a firehouse
The mudslide bubble burst, the worst of which was the millions of hoarders, alcoholics, cows, once-wealth codes, which have now turned into fortune-stranglers:
1. A sharp fall in prices: 4 years old, no blood at all
• top (end of 2021): dispersed bottles fly at $3250/bottle, original boxes 4000+dollars/bottles, raw saloons, annual saloons made to heaven。
• status quo (april 2026): 1570 for bulk bottles and 1650 for original boxes, a drop of more than 50 per cent and a drop of 1,499 for official guidance。
• case: hanzhou has a stock of 30 million mills, which is now at a loss of over 4 million, and 50 boxes are being held in bulk, with a deficit of over 500,000。
2. Demobilization: unmanned disks in hand
• smoke hotels, cows and recyclers stop receiving and no price reduction is required。
• a significant backlog of stocks: a market-wide accumulation of 700-800 million bottles of huts, sufficient for three to five years in the country。
• the boom season: at the end of the spring season in 2025, there was a ratio of sales to 20 per cent and the shelf was grey and unsuspected。
3. Dismantlers in desperate condition: selling a bottle at a loss two hundred dollars
• the cost of the plant was $969 and the wholesale price was around $1,500, but the cost of the channel, the cost of the money, was high, and a bottle was sold at a cost of $100-200。
• decline in profit patterns: 5 per cent commission from price differentials to sales and 60-70 per cent decline in profits。
• status: small- and medium-sized dealers closed large-scale doors, switched businesses, defended their rights and left with tears for 10 years。
4. Disruption of the mind: collapse of faith and sleeplessness
• the "powder" faith was shattered: the "powder rises forever" ideology was shattered and panic was spreading。
• depth of funding: large amounts of funds are locked in stock, closed to the door, comparable to the "high guard" in the city。
• leverage: some of the swipes have borrowed money to hoard alcohol and are now unindebted and forced to leave。
Iv. Deep disappearance: the three sources to create the thought of the sister
The fall of the pagoda from the altar is not the result of a single factor, but the inevitable reversal of the logic of supply and demand, consumption, channels and bubbles:
1. The collapse of demand: the contraction of government business with young people not paying
• zero government consumption: eight regulations, alcohol ban, almost disappeared, and high-end business dinners were significantly curtailed。
• changing consumption perceptions: 80/90 has become a major consumer, rather than high white wine, over-socialization, shifting to wine, wine, brewing and tea。
• disappearment of scenes: gifts, receptions, collections demand has declined significantly, and the hut has changed from "essential" to "non-essential"。
2. Oversupply: surging capacity, peaking stocks
• significant release of production capacity: from 39,000 tons in 2016 to 56,000 tons in 2025, sales continued to increase。
• unsequenced expansion of channels: the last decade has seen a surge in distributors, a build-up of i-chats and a doubling of market supply。
• speculative hoarding: over 700 million bottles have been hoarded over the past five years, rather than consumed, to form a huge "lake of plugs"。
3. Channel revolution: pricing rights recovery, profit margins kill
• a strong push for reforms in the pipeline: direct sales exceeded 50 per cent, reducing distributor profits。
• asymmetrical price adjustments: the offer price increased by $100, the guide price increased by only $40 and the single bottle profits were reduced by $60。
• advertising: raw wine, annual wine to substitute, distributor from "boss" to "server" with a 70 per cent decline in profits。
Foam break-ups: loss of investment properties and return to consumer goods
• the pavilion has long been financialized and invested away from drinking properties and has been heavily overpriced。
• when demand declines, oversupply, speculative funds withdraws, and bubbles break up instantly。
• historical patterns: any commodity that is separated from supply and demand and that relies solely on manoeuvring will eventually return to value, with no exception。
V. Community city: business and freedoms, staying with a class of cuts yes
Today, the treatment of drinking stockers is almost the same as in previous years:
1. The same myth: "always rising."
• demolitions: "house price increases forever" and "core assets never fall"。
• liquor: "the toilet rises forever" and "the preservation of liquid gold adds value"。
• outcome: myths are broken and all the high-level handlers are locked in。
2. The same foam: prices are heavily devalued
• housing prices: less than 1 per cent rent return, separate from residential income。
• liquor prices: dissociated from consumption demand, with zero price differentials of more than $2,000 and over 70 per cent of the composition。
3. Same liquidity crisis: no way to cash out
• property: the number of second-hand houses has risen sharply, and the 30 per cent price reduction has gone unheeded。
• pyramid: stock piled up and sold at reduced prices。
4. The same ending: evaporation of wealth and debt overhang
• tenants: reduced assets, cut-off supplies, auctions, indebtedness。
• liquor hoarders: depreciating stocks, financial lockouts, high losses and leverage。
Vi. Future trends: thought to the winter, with a adaptation period of at least 3-5 years
Negative growth and price collapses, not short-term fluctuations, but long-term turning points, with long-term pressures in the future:
Performance: low and negative growth normal
• the end of a high-growth era with a zero to 3 per cent, or even a phase negative, increase in the next 3-5 years。
• continued pressure on profits: reforms of channels, de-stocking, promotion of concessions, declining profit margins。
Prices: return to a reasonable range and foam is completely clear
• a reasonable price of 1400-1600 dollars, which is a complete farewell to the fluctuations in guiding prices。
• the bursting of non-coalt, saloon, annual wine foam and the return of prices to the product's own value。
3. Market: going to stock, going to foam, going to speculation
• at least three to five years of digestion of 700 to 800 million bottles of stocks, with continued market pressure。
• speculative funds are completely out of business, the toilet returns to its “drinking properties”, and collections and investment needs are significantly shrinking。
4. Industry: adjustment of white wine depth, collective cooling of high-end alcohol
• powder walks down the altar and drives down the prices and sales of high-end wines, such as five grains of liquid, old cellars, etc。
• overcapacity, shrinking consumption and increased competition in the industry, with the acceleration of small and medium-sized alcohol companies。
Vii. Conclusion: the myths are over, reason is back, alcohol hoarding is finally history
From 2001 to 2025, mao tsai built the greatest growth myth in china’s business history in 25 years; but from the peak of 2021 to the collapse of 2026, the super-cow market ended in just five years. The first 25 years of negative growth, price cuts and hoarding of alcohol are essentially the inevitable result of a reversal of supply and demand, a shift in consumption, changes in channels, and a burst of bubbles, the end of an era and the beginning of a return to reason。
Once upon a time, people used to treat the pao as a financial product, as an investment, as a never-depreciated wealth, and to hoard and speculate, turning a bottle of white wine away from its drinking nature and into a tool for capital games. Today, bubbles break, prices fall back, demand collapses, and alcohol hoarders finally experience the skin pain of firing tenants — without forever rising assets, and without value-free sex, the price will eventually come。
It is a pain for the pagoda, and it is a new life — to say goodbye to bubbles, to return to consumption, to the quality of deep cultivation, to go further; to the market it is a warning — to any commodity that respects the patterns of supply and demand, respect the nature of consumption, and that speculation ends at the end; to ordinary people it is a lesson — to stay away from speculation, to refuse to be blind, to consume rationally, to invest in values — and to be a lasting source of wealth。
The pail's at dusk, but the story of white wine continues. It's just that the age of lying on a hoard is forever over。
Statement
This paper is based on the 2021-2026 guzhou mau tai newspaper, data on the white wine industry, wholesale prices in the market and authoritative media reports, and is intended for industrial analysis and market information only, and does not constitute any investment, frying or consumption advice. Prices of alcohol and inventory data are subject to market fluctuations, and business and industry trends are subject to official publication。
