24k99, u. SInflationTake a soft market betFederal reserveThe hike will be suspended and then begin to reverse the pace of the hike. This week, cashGoldThere was a significant increase of $30. 26 or 1. 57 per cent。
On friday (14 july), the price of spot gold fell, reversing part of the increase recorded this week because of the rapid decline in the united states dollar, but still at the highest pre-closure level in the coming month. The united states city tailings, in which cash gold was reported at 1954. 55 per ounce, fell by $5. 70 or 0. 29 per cent, reaching a maximum of 1963. 77 per ounce and a minimum of 1950. 84 per ounce。
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(purpose gold dailies, source: fx168)
“in a rational world, lower inflation once worked against gold,” brien lundin, editor of gold newsletter, wrote. “now, the fall in inflation has led to more doves, which are seen to rise for asset classes such as gold.”。
Exinity group chief marketAnalysisAccording to division han tan, gold “is pleased that its main rival, the united states dollar, has weakened significantly after a marked slowdown in inflation in the united states”
“it is clear that this zero-yield precious metal is immersed in the hope that the interest rate hike later this month (the federal reserve) may be the last step in a series of increases that began in march 2022.”
It's a week to review
Ice fire! The dollar's missing 102 and the gold's turning v
On monday (10 july), the price of the gold was generally stable after the fall and fall, and investors were waiting for united states inflation data that could affect the fed's policy position. The united states city tail, cash gold was received at $1925. 21 per ounce, an increase of $0. 92 or 0. 05 per cent, with a maximum of $1928. 25 per ounce per day, with a minimum of $1912. 33 per ounce。
The united states dollar index fell sharply in the day after the short run, failing at the 102nd mark and reporting 101. 95, falling by 0. 32 per cent in the day. At one point, the spot gold fell to the $1910 level, but it continued to bounce back and out of the v-type。
The chairman of the atlanta federal reserve, raphael bostic, said that, despite high inflation rates, policymakers could now be patient at a time when signs of economic slowdown were emerging。
In his speech on monday at the cobb county chamber of commerce in atlanta, bostico said: “i think we can be patient — our current policy is clearly in a restrictive area.” “we continue to see signs of an economic slowdown, which tells me that restrictive measures are working.”
Bostiak goes on to say, "i don't think interest rates need to go up any further."
“gold has some strong graphic support at $1,900. If inflation continues to rise, the price of gold may be pushed below that level, and it may quickly fall to $1848,” said jim wyckoff, senior analyst of kitco。
The four regional feds are asking for 25 basis pointsCpiGood news? Gold station, 1930
On tuesday (11 july), before the united states released its much-recipient inflation data, the dollar softened and the us treasury debt rate of return fell, taking advantage of the gold futures to leapfrog and gain nearly three weeks. United states city tail, spot gold received $193. 203 per ounce, up $6. 82 or 0. 35 per cent, up to $1938. 45 per ounce in daytime, up to $1924. 25 per ounce。
Of the 12 federal reserve regional banks, four regional fed boards sought to increase the discount rate by 25 percentage points in june, while others supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged last month. The minutes of the recently released united states federal reserve discount interest rate meetings show that at the meeting from 22 may to 14 june, four local feds, cleveland, richmond, st. Louis and dallas, requested an increase in interest rates。
“we have seen bond yields fall early this week, and investors may expect a weaker inflation report on wednesday.” stonex’s market analyst fawad razaqzada told marketwatch. “this has slightly reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold rather than bonds.”
The u. S. C. I. Is finally back in the 3rd era! The fed has only one last hike? ♪ the precious metals are singing ♪
On wednesday (12 july), the united states announced a 3 per cent year-on-year increase in the cpi since march 2021 and a 4. 8 per cent increase in the core cpi, the lowest since october 2021. After the release of the data, the market's expectations of higher interest rates after july were significantly reduced and precious metals such as gold jumped collectively. At the end of the united states, cash gold was reported at $157. 25 per ounce, a significant increase of $25. 22 or 1. 31 per cent, with a maximum of 1959. 68 and a minimum of $1932. 05。
Key private bank's chief investment officer, george mateyo, said: “inflation has made significant progress, and today's report confirms that inflation has finally begun to cool, although most of the country is coping with rising external temperatures.” “the federal reserve will accept the report as evidence that its policies are producing the desired results — inflation has declined and economic growth has not stalled.”
Jeff klearman, portfolio manager of granite shares (bar), said that cpi data were below expectations, while core cpi data continued to be disappointing。
“despite this, the response to the gold price has been positive ... This reflects the market sentiment that, while the fed may have maintained its plan to double interest rates, its austerity cycle is nearing its end,” he said。
The united states dollar has been hit by data and fed news of a double strike
On thursday (13 july), the gold reached its highest level since mid-june, owing to the collapse of the united states dollar following the publication of inflation data in june. United states city tail, cash gold is reported at $160. 25 per ounce, up by $3. 00 or 0. 15 per cent, with a maximum of 1963. 54 per ounce and a minimum of 1952. 34 per ounce。
Chintan karnani, an independent consultant who had been tracking the gold market for 20 years, said that traders looked forward to the end of the rise in interest rates and that the united states dollar index had collapsed. The asian currency's exchange rate against the united states dollar has risen over the past two days, owing to a significant decline in expectations of future interest rate hikes, “the united states dollar is at the peak of the long term”。
German commercial bank economists have stated that the recent weakening of gold prices is likely to be over, given that the market's expectations for further interest rates in the united states have been significantly reduced。
“we have seen the potential for further increase even before the end of the year. Because by that time, it should be clear, at the latest, that the united states interest-rate cycle is over.”
The bank expects that, by the fourth quarter of 2023, the price of the gold will have touched $2,000, that it will rise further to $2,100 in the second quarter of next year, and that it will remain at that level until 2024。
Next week's outlook
The rising mood continues to quietly return to the gold market, and despite the room for gold prices to rise next week, neither wall street analysts nor ordinary bulk investors believe that there will be a major breakthrough。
The latest kitco gold week survey shows that after several weeks of mood fluctuations and low interest, scattered investors again look to gold and precious metals. At the same time, market analysts were cautious about the prospects for gold prices。
This week, 20 wall street analysts participated in the kitco gold survey. Each of the nine analysts (45 per cent) is expected to have high gold prices next week and to sort it across the board. At the same time, two analysts (10 per cent) have recently lost sight of gold。
At the same time, 592 people voted online. Of these, 363 respondents (61 per cent) are expected to increase their gold prices next week. A further 148 (25 per cent) projected lower gold prices and 81 (14 per cent) were neutral about the immediate outlook。
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(source: kitco gold survey)
The sentiment of the diaspora has jumped to a peak of one month. However, even ordinary people doubt that the market is ready to break, and they expect the gold price to be around 1979 next week。
Stonex market strategist james stanley said that he expected gold prices to test the resistance position of 1980 dollars in the near future。
“linked to what i saw last week, many have finally taken the next step, breaking through the resistance after maintaining the us$ 1900 support,” he said. “i do not think that many are clear under the current node, but now in their field the biggest question is how much the seller's reaction to the 1980 or 2000 resistance level test is”
However, not all analysts value next week's gold price. Barchart. Com's senior market strategist darin newsom said the price of gold seemed a little tight。
“although the medium-term trend rose on the august gold week map, the contract was sufficiently volatile and fast to pull the line into overpurchase. The price of gold may be under pressure for a few days before next week's opening, but i do not expect a collapse.” “the dollar index is still on a long-term downward trend, and this alone may potentially support gold.”
