In the recent past, the release of coal has been the focus of industry attention。
At the 2014 meeting and summit meeting of the technical committee for the coal industry, held recently by the president of the china coal industry association, it was stated that, in the face of the continuing decline in the national coal market and the significant slowdown in demand, the “failure to start a market” had been confirmed by the market, and that coal companies were moving away from the inertia of “pricing and giving up the market” and were trying to raise the price of coal powered in the coal market to 0. 1 to 0. 12 yuan/calories。
It has been calculated on the basis of 5,500 large carats of coal, that is, 0. 1~0. 12 yuan/calories or 550~660 yuan/t. The combined average price of 5,500 large carats of coal produced in the most recent period of the ring sea was 482 yuan per ton, and 0. 1~0. 12 yuan per ton equivalent to a 14. 11%~36. 93% increase。
However, market analysts have stated to daily economics reporters that, in a situation where demand is still low, it is difficult to achieve the “ideal” price of ica unless extremes, such as extreme weather, occur in four quarters。
Administrative tools are being challenged to work/
Why set a target of 0. 1~0. 12 dollars/card? An energy consultancy coal analyst, seng ho, explained that coal prices in this zone mean that “almost all coal companies have money to earn”. According to dun soon, an analysis of the anders coal industry, us$ 0. 1 to 0. 12 per card is a price range that allows most domestic coal companies to lose and lose and that is acceptable to downstream power companies。
“however, this may be just an `ideal' of the coal association.” on the operational level, according to zeng ho, many coal mines are in a state of loss and production can drop at a time when coal prices are currently around $480/ton (5,500 large carats of power coal, same as the same), but when coal prices rise to $510 or $520 per ton, many local state-owned and private coal mines will have some room for profit, and profit-seeking will stimulate these enterprises to expand their production。
It is understood that production limits are now the consensus in industry, and that large conglomerates have responded to the call for a cut-off target. However, one set of data reveals an embarrassment: data on coal production in inner mongolia show that the production ratio of local conglomerates decreased by 6 per cent in august, while the production of local state-owned and private coal mines continued to increase, increasing by 11 per cent。
“the limitation of the production of administrative means is very difficult for local state-owned and private enterprises.” zeng ho asked, “if, in the case of profits, he also controls his capacity and gives him market access, it is against the rules of the market. How can you let a private company cut off production in violation of market rules?" according to deng soon, “in the current context of low demand, ica's objective is more difficult to achieve”。
Stock exceeding 300 million tons/month for 33 consecutive months
The data on the economic operations of the china coal industry association, published recently, show that current coal consumption is declining and coal stocks remain high. Data show that national coal consumption in the previous eight months was 2. 69 billion tons, a decrease of 0. 7 per cent over the same period. By the end of august, the entire community's coal stock had been in excess of 300 million tons for 33 months, of which 1. 1 million tons were in stock in coal enterprises, an increase of 15 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 17 per cent; and 7. 95 million tons of coal were stored in major power-generating enterprises, an increase of 1. 05 million tons over the same period, an increase of 25. 3 per cent. According to shun ho, there was a 25. 3 per cent increase in the inventory of the main power plant, “which was a very large volume, with an increase of nearly a quarter”
In his speech, the governor stated that the current deficit for coal enterprises was over 70 per cent, that 70 per cent of coal enterprises had lost their wages, that 30 per cent of enterprises were in arrears and that 20 per cent of businesses had lost more than 10 per cent。
The data show that some positive factors have emerged, with a slight drop in coal prices into september. However, dun soon's analysis suggests that, in the fourth quarter of this year, the supply-side pressure on the power coal market will be reduced as a result of the introduction of measures to lift coal out, restrictions on the import of coal and repairs of the tai qin line, and that the price of power coal is expected to pick up slightly in the fourth quarter as water and electricity fall in the fourth quarter and the demand for heating increases。
At the same time, however, he said that, in the medium to long term, although the production of large domestic coal had recently been limited to national requirements, it would have helped to some extent to lift other coal companies out of the trap. However, the contradiction between rising coal capacity and persistent low downstream demand, beset by factors such as the cooling of the real estate market and local debt, will lead to continued low coal prices。
Responsible editor: zhang dei
[whispering information cellular client downloading]
