“if you control oil, you control all countries; if you control food, you control everyone.” as former us secretary of state kissinger said, the issue of food security is not only a major concern over the temples, but also a question of whether rural villagers will be well fed。
Even as the drought rages and the region's autumn grains, particularly maize (2408,24. 00,1. 01 per cent), have been devastated by the drought and are causing food insecurity, the chinese customs administration's data more directly reflect the fact that the “ocean food” has accelerated into the domestic market and, as domestic and foreign prices have intensified, soybeans (4568, 3. 00, -0. 07 per cent) have increased. The fear of re-emergence in the food industry has led industry to feel that food “offset” seems to be becoming “close”。
Internal and external price differentials have increased the “ocean” food influx
According to data from china's customs administration, china accumulated 1,134 million tons of cereal and cereal powder in the first july of this year, a 80. 7 per cent increase over the same period last year。
Since the beginning of the year, chinese cereal imports, especially wheat, have risen markedly. Despite an eleven-fold increase in food and a 5 per cent increase in domestic production, the “ocean food” imports have rebounded sharply, and since 2008 china has moved from being a large net food exporter to a large net food importer, raising awareness of food security issues。
An analytical article published by the network of officials of china's general customs administration on the reasons for the relatively rapid increase in agricultural imports since this year indicates that domestic demand is strong, for example, soybeans, which are currently being imported mainly for oil extraction, and soybeans (6322, 86. 00, 1. 34 per cent) and soybeans (3268, 62. 00, 1. 86 per cent) are the main products processed. At present, the domestic scale of farming has increased, demand for feed such as soybeans has continued to increase and enterprises export soybeans more economically. Second is the low price of agricultural products on the international market. According to the united nations [webbo] food and agriculture organization of the united nations, the average cereal price index for may this year was 204. 4 points, a decrease of 13 per cent over the same period and a 1. 2 per cent decline in the ring. The cereal price index fell by 15. 9 per cent in january-may。
“we are now well placed to achieve self-sufficiency in staple foods, and if combined with large collections, the overall supply can be relaxed. China's large increase in staple food imports is not due to imbalances in the domestic supply and demand structure.” the teacher of mid-food futures analysis, pang yiya, noted that there were different reasons for the increase in imports for different varieties。
For wheat, due to our traditional smallholder farming practices, wheat seeding is relatively fragmented and of less quality than the importation of wheat, which mainly serves to improve the quality of flour by adding appropriate quantities to the production of flour. For maize, the majority of maize imports are mainly for feed, and between late 2013 and early 2014, chinese customs returned a large number of united states maize and its downstream product, ddgs, containing genetically modified ingredients, together with relatively high corn prices – this has led to an increase in the number of imported sorghum in recent years, which is relatively cheap and a good energy feed. In the rice sector, domestic rice prices are supported by policies, with significant internal and external price differentials and an active trade in smuggling across borders. In contrast, imported rice is more common white and shredded rice at lower prices, mainly to meet industrial rather than rations requirements。
“food imports are growing at a faster rate, and they are also growing in terms of domestic and foreign price differentials. Currently, international fobs for wheat, combined with freight insurance, customs duties, import value-added tax, handling charges, are about 10 per cent lower than market prices for domestically produced wheat.” professor han il-jun of the chinese university of agriculture [weibo] noted that, since joining wto, domestic import trends have been accelerated by the accelerated industrialization process, the cost of food production is at a period of intense and rapid growth, and the associated storage-deposit market policies have resulted in high domestic food prices。
The surge in imports is not equivalent to a domestic “food shortage”
“from a series of data analyses, the volume of net imports of our staple foods is indeed very limited, and this phenomenon does not mean that there is a `food shortage' in our country.” van guangya points out。
According to the ndc document, in 2014 the following food import quotas were established: 9636,000 tons of wheat, 90 per cent of state trade; 7. 2 million tons of maize, 60 per cent of state trade; and 5. 32 million tons of rice, 50 per cent of state trade. According to data from the july supply and demand balance table of the national food centre, our food production in 2014 was as follows: 123 million tons of wheat, 223 million tons of maize and 207 million tons of rice. Imports in recent years, even though they have increased, still fall short of the total quota. Even the total quota is less than 8 per cent of all staple food production. Importing food is therefore not sufficient to alter the overall pattern of supply and demand in our food market。
However, the impact of imported food on our food policy cannot be minimized, although it is limited. According to fan guangya, our agricultural industry is based on a large population base, low level of development and innate in order to keep pace with the farm economy of developed countries. However, asylum from a policy perspective alone will never be a long-term solution if development is not pursued. Especially since this year, as the volume of wheat collections has reached record levels, the problem of the lack of public treasury capacity has become even more acute. The low price of imported food of good quality will, to some extent, force our agricultural protection policy to reform。
Close price risk from internal outreach surge
“the increasing volume of imports has further strengthened the domestic and foreign food price linkages.” in china's view, the surge in international food prices cannot be ignored as a challenge to domestic prices and food security。
According to those concerned, there should be no immediate concern for china but no further concern. The successive harvests provide a solid basis for food security. But based on domestic security, the food supply cannot be relaxed for a moment. The food crisis, which has occurred only once in the past decade or so, has become more pronounced with the increasing frequency of extreme weather events globally。
“the global food crisis or high food prices have erupted three times in the last four years, in 2008, 2011 and 2012. China should attach great importance to the three food crises and food price hikes that have occurred around the world in four years, and must adhere to its basic policy of ensuring food security on the basis of domestic production.” the korean army stressed that the practice of the past four years has proved and warned repeatedly. We, for china, with a population of 1. 34 billion, must not put our jobs in the hands of others。
In order to address this problem, the korean-first army proposes that existing support policies such as subsidies, temporary storage, etc. To support agriculture should be gradually reoriented, but not too quickly。
Van guangya noted that the issue of food security was of high importance and wide-ranging, and that policy reforms had to be carefully weighed against the interests of all. The policy on cotton (14875,100. 00,-0. 07 per cent) since 2014 has changed from a collection to a pilot to a new approach to policy reform. After all, cotton is a cash crop, but the effects of policy changes are yet to be seen and their application to the staple food market will be considered. In addition to policy changes, building on the experience of the united states to modernize agriculture and improving agricultural insurance systems is a viable path。
Responsible editor: zhang dei
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