Yesterday, a message was painted in the educational circles。
The director of the national development and reform commission, zheng zheng zheng zheng zheng, made clear at the press conference that the school-age population of the country's three levels of secondary, high and higher education will peak in 2026, 2029 and 2032, respectively。
For many teachers, this is not just a “data” in the news, but a “spread” that is about to hit everyone。
Some teachers may have felt that the kindergarten has begun to “battlejacking” and that primary school enrolment stamps have been issued earlier, that young people with exams have found themselves in less jobs, and that in some places maternity beds have been empty, but the corridors in the geriatric region are full of beds。
Health is changing. What about education? When the “pyramid” of the school-age population begins to move evenly, where should we stand on the podium
First thing: say goodbye to the illusion of making the safe and meeting the new normal of mobility
In the past, a lot of people took the teacher's qualification, drawing a “stable”. I'm a writer, and i'll never be sad。
But reality is changing。
The data show that primary school enrolment peaked in 2023 and lower secondary school peaked in 2026. This means that in a few years, the source of “cakes” will begin to shrink in part of the school period. The national councillor and vice-president of harbin industrial university, fan feng, put forward a spiritual torture: “how can these resources be used effectively in the long term if they are prepared at peaks, which will inevitably lead to waste and idleness in a few years?”
Resources include school buildings and people。
In fact, in some places, mechanisms such as “teacher turnover”, “county recruitment”, “shared teachers” have been explored. This means that, in the future, you may no longer belong to a “school” but to “the education bureau of a particular region”. This semester is short of the school, and the next semester is likely to be shared with another missing school; this year, the middle school is taught because of a shift in life expectancy, and tomorrow it may be trained to teach high school。
This “cross-the-school flow” is undoubtedly a challenge for many teachers who are accustomed to “one trick”. But as zheng jun, president of the 2nd teacher training college in hubei, said, the key is “how the stock moves”. Instead of being “move” by passive people, you should think about where you can go。
Second thing: evolution from “teaching teacher” to “multi-skilled teacher”
"i teach history. Is there a shortage of history teachers in school? I have nothing to do with it."
With such an idea in mind, the way forward may be narrower。
The national people's congress, the president of the secondary school attached to the northeast teacher training university, found a phenomenon in the study: on the one hand, teachers in some disciplines are surplus, on the other hand, there is a general shortage of teachers in new disciplines such as sports, music, fine arts, especially artificial intelligence, science, engineering and technology。
The national councillor and vice-rector of guangxi teacher training university, huang xiaojun, is even more forthright: teachers' colleges must train teachers with “manual” “general” development attributes。
For teachers already on duty, this is also an alarm. The need for future schools is no longer “i have a teacher in this class”, but “i have a teacher in this new class”. As the demographic dividend shifts to the talent dividend, education also moves from “learning to learning to be well”. If you can teach interdisciplinary teaching, you can bring creative societies and you can provide mental health counselling, you are in school's eyes a “scarce of resources”, not a “excessive person”。
In his study of the mountains, zheng jia, the rector of fujian teacher training university, zheng jia, told him: “the teaching of a famous teacher on the screen is not a substitute for the temperature on the head of a teacher. "technology cannot replace temperature, but technology + composite capacity can keep you at the podium。
Third thing: meet small classes and recreate teacher-student relationships
Is it bad for a teacher to have fewer students and smaller classes。
A representative of the national people's congress and the secretary of the party for the advancement of primary school in quanzhou, fujian province, shared her pilot experience in school: in 2024, schools began piloting small class teaching. As a result, the students' physical and mental health has improved, the overall quality has become stronger and the professional competence of teachers has been enhanced - because fewer people are in the classroom, teachers finally have the opportunity to “pay attention to each, find each, find each happy”。
In the past, the teachers were like “quantity production” and their energy was focused on maintaining order and keeping pace. The future of small classes will enable education to truly return to “people”。
But this is also a new requirement for teachers: to move from “filling” to “precision dripping”. You need to design individualized programs based on the characteristics of each child, you need to have a stronger analytical capacity, you need to prove your worth in a "scrutinizing work." when education moves from “deep water” to “precision drip irrigation”, the work of the teachers becomes not simple, but difficult — but also more fulfilling。
Fourth thing: see the new track in the silver wave
There's another signal worth noting。
Doctors at beijing co-ordination and hospital found that since last year the number of obstetric beds and operations began to decline, but that in other departments, especially those related to old age, the number of operations increased in double digits。
Education is also facing the same structural transformation. The representative of the national people's congress and vice-president of the fujian academy of social sciences, huang mo xing, recommended the conversion of the vacant school premises to community education centres, youth camps or universities。
This means that future teachers may serve more than just children aged 6 to 18. The age of lifelong learning is accelerating. If you have teaching experience, organisational skills and curriculum development skills, old-age education, community education and vocational skills training can be extended。
He than, member of the national council for political affairs and director of the china centre for population and development studies, said well: “promote more resources to invest in people is a matter of development.” the profession of a teacher, which does not disappear as a result of a decline in its sources, will be redefined because of the outreach of its clients。
During these days, there was a consensus among the members of the commission that the core mission of education had shifted from “quantitative filling” to “level leaps”, from “education compliance” to “quality re-engineering”。
This is indeed an era of uncertainty for every teacher in it. But in uncertainty, there are opportunities。
What we have to do is not wait anxiously for that wave to come, but to go ashore early and stand in a higher place。
Whether it is to embrace mobility, to expand skills, to cultivate small classes or to focus on lifelong education, it is essentially to answer one question: can i become an irreplaceable “educator” when students no longer need to have so many “teachers”
Conspiracy。
